{"id":108557,"date":"2025-10-18T17:19:46","date_gmt":"2025-10-18T21:19:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/?p=108557"},"modified":"2025-10-18T17:19:46","modified_gmt":"2025-10-18T21:19:46","slug":"pirates-should-be-all-over-this-minor-league-free-agent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2025\/10\/18\/pirates-should-be-all-over-this-minor-league-free-agent\/","title":{"rendered":"Pirates Should Be All Over This Minor League Free Agent"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The 2026 offseason has begun for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and among the avenues they\u2019ll pursue are minor league free agents. Back in my childhood (the 1960s and 1970s), it wasn\u2019t unusual for Pittsburgh\u2019s professional teams to seek out the opinions of media members for recommendations about players. The late Pat Livingston of <em>The Pittsburgh Press<\/em>, for example, was a de facto scout for the Steelers. These days, relations between sports teams and the media are more strained. Maybe it\u2019s more accurate to say that the parties don\u2019t socialize much anymore. Nevertheless, I have a recommendation for Pirates general manager Ben Cherington.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_108576\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-108576\" style=\"width: 1082px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-108576\" src=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/10\/USATSI_26615052_168400885_lowres-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1082\" height=\"721\" srcset=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/10\/USATSI_26615052_168400885_lowres-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/10\/USATSI_26615052_168400885_lowres-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/10\/USATSI_26615052_168400885_lowres-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/10\/USATSI_26615052_168400885_lowres-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/10\/USATSI_26615052_168400885_lowres-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/10\/USATSI_26615052_168400885_lowres-600x400.jpg 600w, https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/10\/USATSI_26615052_168400885_lowres-1200x800.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1082px) 100vw, 1082px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-108576\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Oklahoma City Comets outfielder Ryan Ward (10) warms up before a minor league baseball game between the Oklahoma City Comets and the Sugar Land Space Cowboys at Chickasaw Bricktown Ballpark in Oklahoma City, Wednesday, July 9, 2025.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>As Pirates Ponder Minor League Free Agents, Here\u2019s One They Should Consider<\/h2>\n<p>Mr. Cherington, I present to you <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/register\/player.fcgi?id=ward--003rya\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Ryan Ward<\/a> from the Los Angeles Dodgers system. He\u2019s a 27-year-old outfielder who slugged 36 home runs for Triple-A Oklahoma City, leading the minor leagues and earning him the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/register\/player.fcgi?id=bauman001joe\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Joe Bauman<\/a> Award and the Pacific Coast League\u2019s Most Valuable Player Award. Besides the 36 dingers, Ward hit .290\/.380\/.557 and drove in 122 runs for Oklahoma City. He carried an 18.7 percent strikeout rate and a healthy 12.7 percent walk rate. He\u2019s no flash in the pan, either. Since 2021, he\u2019s never hit fewer than 21 home runs in a season. In three Triple-A seasons, he\u2019s hit .261\/.343\/.507, 90 HR, and 318 RBI.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Not surprised Ryan Ward was named MVP. He had one heck of season and was never given the chance to show it off in the Majors. <a  href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/C9ADgcyvXk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/t.co\/C9ADgcyvXk<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Dodgers_After_Duty (@msalas24) <a  href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/msalas24\/status\/1972132366878756976?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">September 28, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Ward\u2019s contract is up after the 2025 season. There\u2019s no word on whether he\u2019ll re-up with the Dodgers or test the market as a minor league free agent. I\u2019m guessing the latter.<\/p>\n<h3>Two Strikes Against Him?<\/h3>\n<p>What strikes might Ward have against him? First, 27 is \u201cold\u201d for a prospect who has yet to get a major league opportunity. I use the term \u201cprospect\u201d loosely. He\u2019s no longer on the Dodgers\u2019 list of top prospects. He\u2019s been invited to the major league spring training camp these last three years but has never made the final cut. Of course, it\u2019s hard to crack the roster of the talent-laden Dodgers and their $350 million payroll. They relied extensively on their farm system back in the days of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/k\/koufasa01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-18_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Sandy Koufax<\/a>, but despite having the top farm system in baseball, the Dodgers don\u2019t do business that way anymore. For example, of the 10 players who started Game 3 of the <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2025\/10\/17\/dodgers-sweep-brewers-win-second-straight-nl-pennant\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_self\">National League Championship Series<\/a> on Wednesday night, only two were home-grown.<\/p>\n<p>Yes, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/c\/confomi01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-18_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Michael Conforto<\/a> was a <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2025\/08\/26\/time-should-be-up-dodgers-michael-conforto\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_self\">big flop<\/a> for the Dodgers this season, and they\u2019ll be looking for outfield help. They\u2019ll probably simply pluck another high-profile free agent from the available pool rather than develop a minor leaguer such as Ward. After all, they have to be the favorites to \u201cthreepeat\u201d as World Series champs in 2026. I say this because they\u2019ll win it in 2025, of course.<\/p>\n<p>Second, it\u2019s well known that in the PCL, batting statistics are inflated due to the high altitudes and dry air in the participant cities. How do we know that PCL success will translate to the major leagues? A couple of sabermetricians have attempted to answer that question.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>PCL Adjustments<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>In 2023, Jeff Zimmerman of FanGraphs attempted to quantify the effect the PCL has on batting stats. He concluded that a hitter\u2019s slash line is inflated by .080\/.107\/.158 by playing in the PCL. Adjusting Ward\u2019s numbers accordingly, he would have hit .210\/.273\/.399 in a \u201cnormal\u201d setting last year. That\u2019s not much different than the numbers <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/c\/canaral01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-18_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Alexander Canario<\/a> put up. I\u2019m not sure that I believe that the Bauman awardee and PCL MVP, ostensibly the league\u2019s best player, would have been a .210 hitter anywhere else. That would suggest that any player who came from the PCL would be virtually useless. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/w\/willite01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-18_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Ted Williams<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/d\/dimagjo01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-18_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Joe DiMaggio<\/a> came from the PCL. That shoots that theory.<\/p>\n<h3>Equivalent Average<\/h3>\n<p>Have no fear, Clay Davenport of Baseball Prospectus came up with Equivalent Average (EqA) in 2010 to adjust a hitter\u2019s stats to eliminate ballpark and league effects. The first step is the determination of \u201craw EqA,\u201d the formula for which follows:<\/p>\n<p>The sum of hits + total bases + (1.5 times (walks + hit by pitch)) + stolen bases + sacrifice hits + sacrifice flies<\/p>\n<p>Divided by<\/p>\n<p>The sum of at-bats + walks + hit by pitch + sacrifice hits + sacrifice flies + caught stealings + (stolen bases divided by 3).<\/p>\n<p>The raw EqA is then adjusted by a league factor, a ballpark factor, not having to face the pitchers on the player\u2019s team, and a difficulty factor to convert it into the EqA. If you\u2019re interested in what goes into all of this, more information can be found <a href=\"https:\/\/legacy.baseballprospectus.com\/glossary\/index.php?mode=viewstat&amp;stat=61\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">here<\/a>. If you understand it, you\u2019re pretty good. Suffice it to say that .300 is considered a good EqA. An EqA of .260 is considered average.<\/p>\n<p>Baseball Prospectus doesn\u2019t present computations of EqA for individual players. (Can you blame them?) Fortunately, Davenport fills that void on his own website. So, if you\u2019ve read this far, let\u2019s get to what you really want to know: In 2025, Ward\u2019s EqA was .290 according to Davenport.<\/p>\n<p>This suggests Ward is a well-above-average hitter. I can\u2019t say that I understand EqA, but this result makes more sense to me.<\/p>\n<h3>Let\u2019s Get Practical<\/h3>\n<p>Cherington puts a lot of stock in analytics. Whether he puts much stock in Zimmerman\u2019s PCL adjustment of Davenport\u2019s EqA is unknown. It\u2019s also unknown whether his analytics department has its own measures to eliminate PCL effects. What\u2019s known is that Ward is a left-handed hitter with power and a good eye. The long-time minor leaguer might relish coming to Pittsburgh, where he has a legitimate shot to play every day while aiming for PNC Park\u2019s short right field.<\/p>\n<p>Cherington\u2019s predecessor, Neal Huntington, took the job late in the 2007 season. He initiated a full-scale rebuilding process that yielded little major league talent and five losing seasons from 2008-12. After his five-year plan failed, bold moves were needed in 2013. Huntington answered the call when he signed free agent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/m\/martiru01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-18_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Russell Martin<\/a> to a two-year, $17 million deal. The Pirates went on to three consecutive postseason appearances.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s nothing in Cherington\u2019s Pirates tenure to suggest he has a similar bold move in him. Despite having created payroll flexibility at the <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2025\/08\/01\/grading-pirates-2025-trade-deadline\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_self\">trade deadline<\/a>, it\u2019s unlikely he\u2019ll sign a free agent who will have the impact Martin did. Look for more of the same, along the lines of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/t\/tellero01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-18_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Rowdy Tellez<\/a> or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/p\/phamth01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-10-18_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Tommy Pham<\/a>. As he scans the list of minor league free agents who might be attractive to the Pirates, Ward\u2019s is one name he shouldn\u2019t pass over.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Main Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The 2026 offseason has begun for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and among the avenues they\u2019ll pursue are minor league free agents. Back in my childhood (the 1960s and 1970s), it wasn\u2019t unusual for Pittsburgh\u2019s professional teams to seek out the opinions of media members for recommendations about players. The late Pat Livingston of The Pittsburgh Press, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5010,"featured_media":106712,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[26,1071,35],"tags":[5062,1516,689,203,148,29169,5410,1752,1087],"class_list":["post-108557","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pirates","category-mlb","category-news","tag-alexander-canario","tag-joe-dimaggio","tag-michael-conforto","tag-rowdy-tellez","tag-russell-martin","tag-ryan-ward","tag-sandy-koufax","tag-ted-williams","tag-tommy-pham"],"modified_by":"Lewis Masella, Site Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108557","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5010"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=108557"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108557\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":108577,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/108557\/revisions\/108577"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/106712"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=108557"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=108557"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=108557"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}