{"id":106897,"date":"2025-09-09T21:59:39","date_gmt":"2025-09-10T01:59:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/?p=106897"},"modified":"2025-09-09T21:59:39","modified_gmt":"2025-09-10T01:59:39","slug":"reds-hunter-greenes-dominance-bcoming-future-ace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2025\/09\/09\/reds-hunter-greenes-dominance-bcoming-future-ace\/","title":{"rendered":"The Stability of Hunter Greene\u2019s Dominance"},"content":{"rendered":"

After spending nearly three months on the injured list with a strained right groin, Hunter Greene has returned to the Cincinnati Reds<\/a> starting rotation. He has made two starts since his return on August 14th and has not missed a beat.<\/p>\n

Every postseason team needs a legit number one ace to lead the team, and Greene<\/a> has proven to be just that for the Reds. While they are most likely not making it into October this year, Greene will be their number one guy whenever they do make it in the future.<\/p>\n

\"The
May 28, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Hunter Greene (21) pitches during the first inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Hunter Greene’s Dominance Emerging in Reds Rotation<\/h2>\n

Greene\u2019s Early Career Struggles<\/h3>\n

Greene was regarded as one of the best pitching prospects in recent memory thanks to his electric arm. He made it to the big leagues at just 22 years old, making 24 starts in 2022. The results were as expected for a young power arm, as he posted a 4.44 ERA in 125 2\/3 innings.<\/p>\n

Greene has struggled with the long ball, surrendering a whopping 24 of them. His HR\/FB (home run to fly ball rate) was at a sky-high 16.1%.<\/p>\n

The following season wasn\u2019t much better either, as Greene made 22 starts, posting a 4.84 ERA in 112 innings. He surrendered 19 home runs this time around, with a 14.3% HR\/FB.<\/p>\n

It was looking like this was an issue that would haunt Greene for years to come, as it was one of the only areas of the game where he struggled. He had the ability to generate swings and misses at an incredible rate, as he was in the 80th to 90th percentile in both 2022 and 2023 for Whiff% and K%.<\/p>\n

A big issue behind Greene\u2019s struggles was his fastball location. Despite it averaging a blistering 98 MPH, he often left it right down the middle of the plate, allowing hitters to square it up. Pitching in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park<\/a> doesn\u2019t help, of course, but Greene was causing self-harm with his fastball location.<\/p>\n

2024 Breakout Season<\/h3>\n

To put it simply, Hunter Greene was one of the major leagues’ best pitchers in 2024, and would have garnered significant National League Cy Young Award<\/a> interest if not for a late-season injury.<\/p>\n

Here are Greene\u2019s numbers in his 2024 All-Star season:<\/p>\n

26 GS – 150 1\/3 IP<\/p>\n

2.75 ERA<\/p>\n

3.03 xERA – (89th percentile)<\/p>\n

.188 xBA – (96th percentile)<\/p>\n

87.3 Avg Exit Velocity – (86th percentile)<\/p>\n

29.7 Whiff% – (81st percentile)<\/p>\n

27.7 K% – (81st percentile)<\/p>\n

5.2 Barrel% – (87th percentile)<\/p>\n

32.5 Hard-Hit% – (92nd percentile)<\/p>\n

It was a true breakout in every facet of the game for Hunter Greene, skyrocketing him up the list of MLB starter rankings. He cut down on the home runs allowed, with just 12 (6.9% HR\/FB). The only question that remained was whether or not this breakout was sustainable.<\/p>\n

Greene\u2019s 2025 Season<\/h3>\n

Due to the groin injury, Greene has made just 16 starts this year, but they have been 16 fantastic starts.<\/p>\n

16 GS – 90 1\/3 IP<\/p>\n

2.59 ERA<\/p>\n

3.04 xERA – (87th percentile)<\/p>\n

.212 xBA – (88th percentile)<\/p>\n

90.2 Avg Exit Velocity – (27th percentile)<\/p>\n

32.7 Chase% – (90th percentile)<\/p>\n

31.8 Whiff% – (91st percentile)<\/p>\n

32.0 K% – (93rd percentile)<\/p>\n

5.4 BB% – (91st percentile)<\/p>\n

10.0 Barrel% – (20th percentile)<\/p>\n

44.3 Hard-Hit% – (20th percentile)<\/p>\n

Despite his 11.4 % HR\/FB being higher than in 2024, he is allowing way fewer base runners compared to the past, making those home runs hurt much less. Greene\u2019s rare combination of power and command is truly a beautiful sight to see.<\/p>\n

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ERA leaders since July 1, 2024 (min. 25 GS):<\/p>\n

1.95 – Paul Skenes
\n2.01 – Hunter Greene
\n2.18 – Chris Sale
\n2.23 – Tarik Skubal https:\/\/t.co\/LXRIvU7r4o<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/CSU8XvYmKZ<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) September 8, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n