{"id":101108,"date":"2025-05-28T17:35:21","date_gmt":"2025-05-28T21:35:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/?p=101108"},"modified":"2025-05-28T17:35:21","modified_gmt":"2025-05-28T21:35:21","slug":"adam-frazier-pirates-hot-streak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2025\/05\/28\/adam-frazier-pirates-hot-streak\/","title":{"rendered":"Adam Frazier is Hot; Here\u2019s Why It Can\u2019t Continue"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/f\/fraziad01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-05-28_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Adam Frazier<\/a> has hit well of late, but one wonders how long it can continue. (Spoiler alert: It can\u2019t.) First, let\u2019s give much-maligned Pirates general manager Ben Cherington credit for bringing Frazier into the fold. When Frazier was <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2025\/01\/28\/pirates-sign-adam-frazier\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_self\">signed<\/a> last January, the move didn\u2019t make a lot of sense in that it didn\u2019t address the team\u2019s most pressing need, i.e., an outfielder who could provide some offense. The Pirates already had no less than <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2025\/01\/15\/pirates-second-base-competition\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_self\">seven middle infielders in spring training competing<\/a> for starting jobs. Frazier, who plays all over the infield and outfield, is primarily a middle infielder. His presence guaranteed that a prospect like <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/y\/yorkeni01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-05-28_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Nick Yorke<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2024\/07\/29\/quinn-priester-red-sox-pirates-trade\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_self\">acquired last season<\/a>, wouldn\u2019t break camp with the big club. It seemed like a case of, well, we still have <a href=\"https:\/\/money.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">money<\/a> in the budget, so let\u2019s sign somebody for the sake of it.<\/p>\n<p>Since starting second baseman <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/g\/gonzani01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-05-28_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Nick Gonzales<\/a> went down with an <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2025\/03\/28\/pirates-nick-gonzales-injured-list-ankle\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_self\">injury<\/a> on Opening Day, the Pirates have gone with a platoon of Frazier and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/t\/triolja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-05-28_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Jared Triolo<\/a> in his place. As the left-handed batter, Frazier has seen the bulk of the action there. When Frazier was hitting .159\/.208\/.227 on April 13, he looked like another in a long line of sub-.200-hitting Cherington acquisitions. After all, he hit just .202\/.282\/.294 for the Kansas City Royals last season. However, since April 14, and at the close of Tuesday\u2019s action, Frazier has been hitting .292\/.375\/.381. That\u2019s raised his overall slash line to .255\/.330\/.338. He\u2019s fielded well, too. At second base, he\u2019s been responsible for four Fielding Runs Above Average and two Defensive Runs Saved. With none of the Pirates&#8217; middle infield prospects banging down the door at Triple-A, Frazier has indeed been a godsend.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Adam Frazier has had 12 hits in the last week and Brent Rooker nine. Those standout performances and Chris Stratton landing a new team highlight this week&#8217;s Diamond Dawg in the Show update: <a  href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/cAjaD9RIIL\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/t.co\/cAjaD9RIIL<\/a> <a  href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/18AULcCFZD\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pic.twitter.com\/18AULcCFZD<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Robbie Faulk (@robbiefaulkOn3) <a  href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/robbiefaulkOn3\/status\/1927497393114845660?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">May 27, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2>Adam Frazier Unlikely to Continue Hot Hitting for Pirates<\/h2>\n<p>In today\u2019s baseball, where teams lack depth, it\u2019s hard to replace a regular with the caliber of play Frazier has delivered so far. Overall, he\u2019s been worth 0.6 WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Considering that he <em>is<\/em> a replacement, that\u2019s not too bad. Meanwhile, Gonzales is scheduled to come off the injured list any day now. Gonzales may be arriving just in time. The reason? As well as Frazier has hit, there are a few statistical indicators that suggest a lot of luck has been involved.<\/p>\n<h3>A Recipe for Regression<\/h3>\n<p>To wit, Frazier has shown an uncanny knack for stretches of hot hitting without making hard contact. This season, his hard-hit rate, i.e., the percentage of balls hit with an exit velocity of 95 mph, is a mere 16.0 percent. Thus, the .295 BABIP he\u2019s registered so far appears unsustainable. Indeed, his xBA based on quality of contact is a mere .232. Let&#8217;s look at the latest fad among numbers crunchers, which is wOBA. There, too, is an indication of how lucky Frazier has been. He\u2019s put up a .298 wOBA, lower than his xwOBA of .268.<\/p>\n<p>Frazier\u2019s spray chart indicates balls dropping into the shallow outfield. He has eight infield hits, two of which were doubles, among his 40 hits. (Contrast Frazier\u2019s season with that of his teammate <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/h\/horwisp01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-05-28_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Spencer Horwitz<\/a>, who, in a small sample size since <a href=\"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/2025\/05\/17\/pirates-activate-spencer-horwitz-injured-list\/\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_self\">returning from the IL<\/a>, is hitting .200 with a 46.7 hard-hit rate and a .275 xBA, and a wOBA of .249 vs. an xwOBA of .312, and one realizes that baseball can be a funny game sometimes.) Consider, too, Frazier\u2019s 84.3 average exit velocity, which is below the major league average, and 26.7 line drive rate, above the major league average but not significantly, and you have a recipe for a regression to the mean.<\/p>\n<p>None of this is to suggest that Frazier is without talent and doesn\u2019t deserve credit for what he\u2019s done. On the plus side, his strikeout rate is just 15.3 percent. Good things happen to those who make contact. But without <em>hard<\/em> contact, they won&#8217;t happen for long.<\/p>\n<h3>Remembering Frazier and the Pirates in 2021<\/h3>\n<p>Frazier\u2019s season brings to mind his 2021 season with Pittsburgh, when he was the National League\u2019s starting second baseman in the All-Star Game. That year, Frazier hit .324\/.388\/.448 for the Pirates. Like any Pirate who\u2019s been performing well since. . . oh, about 1993, he was the subject of trade rumors. The analytics crowd warned that it might be a good idea to maximize his trade value. The belief then was that he couldn\u2019t sustain his .359 BABIP with his 26.3 hard-hit rate. Frazier was sent to the San Diego Padres at the deadline in a deal that netted the Pirates <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/s\/suwinja01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&amp;utm_source=lastwordonsports.com&amp;utm_campaign=2025-05-28_br\" target=\"_blank\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Jack Suwinski<\/a> and two prospects no longer with the organization.<\/p>\n<p>Chalk one up for the stats geeks. Frazier hit .267\/.327\/.355 the rest of the 2021 season. That wasn\u2019t terrible, but it wasn\u2019t what the Padres were expecting either. Since the Pirates traded him, and before his return this season, Frazier hit .236\/.301\/.336 for four teams. He&#8217;d reached his peak by the 2021 trade deadline.<\/p>\n<h3>The Last Word<\/h3>\n<p>Maybe Frazier can continue hitting as he has since April 14. It\u2019s more likely, however, in light of his peripherals, that a drop-off is in order. Once again, it might be a good time for the Pirates to trade Frazier to a contender looking to shore up its bench. Maybe it\u2019s time to see what Yorke could do in a reserve role behind Gonzales. After a horrendous start, Yorke is now hitting .271\/.331\/.375 at Triple-A Indianapolis. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out once Gonzales returns.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Photo Credit: \u00a9 Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Adam Frazier has hit well of late, but one wonders how long it can continue. (Spoiler alert: It can\u2019t.) First, let\u2019s give much-maligned Pirates general manager Ben Cherington credit for bringing Frazier into the fold. When Frazier was signed last January, the move didn\u2019t make a lot of sense in that [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5010,"featured_media":101149,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","sfio_featured_image":false,"sfio_embed_code":"","_ef_editorial_meta_date_first-draft-date":"","_ef_editorial_meta_paragraph_assignment":"","_ef_editorial_meta_checkbox_needs-photo":"","_ef_editorial_meta_number_word-count":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[26,1071],"tags":[1103,5720,6463,3605,28666],"class_list":["post-101108","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pirates","category-mlb","tag-adam-frazier","tag-jack-suwinski","tag-jared-triolo","tag-nick-gonzales","tag-nick-yorke"],"modified_by":"Lewis Masella, Site Editor","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101108","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5010"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101108"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101108\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":101150,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101108\/revisions\/101150"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/101149"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101108"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101108"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lastwordonsports.com\/baseball\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101108"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}