Michael Toglia of the Colorado Rockies displayed plenty of promise in the 2024 season. After mightily struggling in his first two big league stints, Toglia produced near a league average level with the stick slashing .218/.311/.456 (98 wRC+) in his age 25 season. For perspective on his struggles, Togila ranked 439th out of 456 hitters in wOBA (.252) in 2022-2023 (minimum 250 plate appearances). Moreover, his inability to make consistent contact (34.6% K rate) was the major reason why. His low contact rate will keep his strikeout rate high, but the switch-hitter’s contact quality improved significantly, and his patented patience from the minor leagues finally transferred to the majors.
Rockies First Baseman Shows Strong Power Potential
Contact Quality Improvement
The former first-round pick from UCLA has always had the raw power. However, he struggled early in his career to turn that great raw power into game power due to his extreme swing-and-miss woes. To compound the swing and miss, his walk rates in the majors (7%) did not match the consistent double-digit rates he posted in the minors. But, in 2024, he was the biggest riser from 2023 to 2024 in Barrel% and second biggest in BB%. While his strikeout rate did not see much improvement, this patience and power combination will play. Here are some of his numbers for 2024 and the corresponding rank among hitters (minimum 450 plate appearances):
| BB% | 11.8% | 14th |
| HardHit% | 50.0% | 14th |
| Barrel% | 17.2% | 6th |
| xSLG | .521 | 15th |
| xwOBA | .365 | 18th |
Toglia ranked near the top of the league in many of the key areas of a strong power and patience profile. A good understanding and awareness of the strike zone and unlocking his power swing is intriguing. The 17.2%-barrel rate is huge and can help mitigate the negative of his swing-and-miss tendencies. For comparison, there is a small cohort of players with strikeout rates north of 30%, double-digit walk rates, and double-digit barrel rates. The players whose barrel rates did not exceed 12% averaged just a .670 OPS. Toglia finished with a .763 OPS and, based on his expected statistics, experienced some misfortune.
Michael Toglia has 40-homer upside in 2025 and is a dark horse candidate to lead the NL in HR.
Elite QoC/angles: 92.1 mph AVG EV, 17.3% BRL, 50.2% HH, 15.1° LA, 39.2% Sweet-spot.
You can stomach the .210-.240 range if he pushes 80+/40/80+/10.#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/Wu5VV8CB0V
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) November 15, 2024
Refined Approach
An important piece to Toglia recapturing his minor league walk rates was cutting his chase rate. His chase rate was never at an extreme rate (33.4% in 2023), but getting that mark down to 29.1% is a positive sign. Furthermore, his performance against fastballs took a big step forward. He teed off on the hard pitches with over a .500 xSLG on four-seamers, cutters, and sinkers. While his whiff rates on each pitch type are still mostly poor, he showed across-the-board improvement against nearly every pitch from 2023 to 2024. Notably, breaking and off-speed stuff gives him fits. However, he posted a 40% hard-hit rate or better on every pitch type except the changeup.
While Toglia has a plus bat speed ranking in the 70th percentile, he also has a longer swing that puts him in the 29th percentile. A standard attack against this elongated, upper-cut swing style is with high velocity and ride four-seam fastballs. During his struggles in 2023, pitchers flooded their four-seamers in the upper third of the zone against Toglia, where he had his worst contact rates. In addition, his contact quality wasn’t there, with a .321 xSLG against four-seamers. Pitchers followed a similar approach in 2024, but Toglia worked to close the hole in the upper third of the zone. He not only had a good amount of success hitting for damage on high four-seamers but was much improved in punishing mistakes in the heart of the zone.
Areas For Improvement
As is the case with all young hitters, there are always elements to improve. In the case of Toglia, the biggest drawback will be the hit tool. As mentioned, Toglia did well to cut down on the pitches he swings at outside the zone. But when he does chase, Toglia has the third-lowest contact rate (minimum 450 plate appearances). Further, the league overall has seen its fastball usage decline year over year. With Toglia struggling to consistently make contact on breaking and off-speed pitches, there’s a possibility he gets spammed with these in the future and forced to make an adjustment. For context, on all breaking and off-speed pitches, Toglia had a bottom three whiff rate (50.8%).
It is common to see switch-hitters be noticeably better from one side than the other. With Toglia, he had a 116 wRC+ as a right-handed hitter versus a 90 wRC+ as a left-handed hitter in 2024. He still drew walks at a similar rate from each side, but his strikeout rate was down to 28.1% as a right-handed hitter compared to 34% as a left-handed hitter. However, his true platoon skill or switch-hitting capabilities are still to be determined. For his career, his strikeout rates are identical, and overall production is marginally different.
Future Outlook
Historically speaking, this kind of hitter profile can be fragile. They become very streaky, and often, the swing-and-miss reaches an untenable level. Since 2015, there have been 20 hitter seasons with at least a double-digit walk rate and a 32% strikeout rate (minimum 450 plate appearances). The average wRC+ of that group is about 108. With names like Joey Gallo and Miguel Sano on the list, there are paths to both success and failure. Positively, his underlying statistics in 2024 eerily mirror Tyler O’Neil’s 2024 season.
To go along with his pros as a hitter, the Rockies first baseman is also projected as one of the better defense first basemen in the league. While Outs Above Average is not as kind to him, he had the second most Defensive Runs Saved by a first baseman, only behind Fielding Bible Award winner Matt Olson. His switch-hitting ability, power upside, and defensive prowess should provide him a runway to play a ton. If he can continue to make incremental improvements against breaking and off-speed pitches, his high-end contact quality numbers could yield a high-end power season. Fresh off a 25-home-run season and also mixing in 10 stolen bases, there is a chance he will ascend in 2025. And, of course, it is great to play half of his games in hitters paradise known as Coors Field.
Main Photo Credits: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images
