One wonders how it benefits the Pittsburgh Pirates and David Bednar to keep him in the closer role any further. The Pirates and Bednar hit a new low in Wednesday afternoon’s 14-10 loss to the Chicago Cubs at PNC Park. On an oppressively hot, sticky Pittsburgh summer day when it feels like the sun is 10 feet away from the back of one’s neck, the Pirates led the Cubs, 10-3, after five innings with young phenom Paul Skenes on the mound. Although he had thrown just 82 pitches, manager Derek Shelton, with one eye on the future, decided to preserve his ace and turn the game over to his beleaguered bullpen. The bullpen proceeded to unravel. Bednar wasn’t the only culprit. But he failed to protect a ninth-inning, two-run lead, surrendering five runs in two-thirds of an inning. It was his sixth blown save and seventh loss of 2024.
One Pirate fan who attended the game told me, “What misery. The Pirates are surely the most exasperating team one can root for.” Shelton, who usually hides his frustrations when dealing with the media, said, “I don’t know if I’ve been as pissed as I am right now,” according to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Even noted baseball authority Livvy Dunne expressed her frustration on that vicious cesspool known as social media. Her vexation is understandable, but she’d be wise to refrain from criticizing her significant other’s teammates.
— Olivia Dunne (@livvydunne) August 28, 2024
Closer Options the Pirates Should Explore As Bednar Slumps
Meanwhile, returning to Bednar, one is reminded of what erstwhile Pittsburgh Steelers coach Chuck Noll once said of his troubled defensive tackle Ernie Holmes: “He has problems, and they are many.” Bednar has as many losses and one fewer blown save than in his All-Star 2022 and 2023 seasons combined. That last outing ballooned his ERA to 6.32 and his WHIP to 1.426. His 4.64 FIP indicates he may have had some bad luck, although this is a below-average number, too.
So, what’s wrong with Bednar? It’s doubtful even a team of Sherlock Holmes, Mike Hammer, and Ellery Queen could figure it out. Bednar relies primarily on a four-seam fastball, which he throws 56.7 percent of the time, consistent with previous years’ usage. Its average velocity of 97.2 mph is the highest it’s ever been as a Pirate. Its 39.9 percent chase rate is the same as it was in 2023. Bednar’s 8.4 percent walk rate is higher than it was in his All-Star years, but not alarmingly so. Statistics reveal he’s left fewer pitches over the middle of the plate than in the past. These things must be what Shelton sees that makes him go back to Bednar time and again.
However, the four-seamer has generated a 13.5 percent whiff rate, which is significantly lower than that of the last two years. Overall, Bednar’s strikeout rate is 22.9 percent, his career low as a Pirate by a notable margin. The only conclusion to reach is that the league’s hitters have adjusted to him, and he needs to show them something different. That’s something Bednar should be working on in lower-leverage situations, not as the closer of the Pirates.
So, What’s Next?
Due to an injury, Bednar didn’t have much of a spring training with which to prepare for the season. He struggled at the beginning of the season. The Pirates hoped that a trip to the injured list in June would restore Bednar to the previous dominance he’s shown as a closer. Since his return, he’s looked sharp at times, and he does have 23 saves. However, since July 29, he’s 0-4 with five saves, three blown saves, and an ugly 10.80 ERA. During that time, opponents are hitting .352/.462/.537 against him.
In light of the fact that the Pirates just gave up 41 runs in the three-game series against the Cubs, 30 of which came against the bullpen, the reader might be surprised to learn that the Bucs have plenty of relievers who are pitching quite well of late. Let’s look at some options as to who the Pirates might look to replace Bednar as the closer or at least use in high-leverage spots.
The Lefties
The obvious solution is to use Aroldis Chapman to close games. The hard-throwing veteran left-hander has 325 saves in his 15 years. Since signing a $10.5 million contract with the Pirates, he’s also been frustrating at times with bouts of wildness. But everybody knows that Chapman is streaky, and he happens to be on a good streak now. Since July 20, he’s 4-0 with seven holds and a 2.25 ERA, with opponents hitting .161/.230/.250 against him. He’s struck out 27 of 61 batters during that stretch. Of course, games can be lost in any inning. The Pirates need others to step up and handle the late innings.
When Jalen Beeks was acquired at the deadline, it seemed like the least sexy of general manager Ben Cherington’s deadline deals. But Beeks has pitched well as a Pirate. Since he arrived in Pittsburgh, Shelton has kept him busy. Beeks has already pitched in 14 games and has a 1.80 ERA in 10 innings. Some of his peripheral stats could be better, but the bottom line is he generally keeps runners from scoring.
The Kids Are All Right
I’d previously advocated for an increased bullpen role for Kyle Nicolas. Since July 26, he has a 2.76 ERA. However, that figure was an even more stellar 0.61 on August 24 and is skewed by rough outings against the Cincinnati Reds and the Cubs. We might regard the Cubs series as an aberration. Their bats were hot, and their confidence was at a high. Even their trainers and clubhouse attendants wanted to get in the batter’s box.
Last year’s seventh-inning specialist, Carmen Mlodzinski, has pitched well all season long. Despite stints on the injured list, he has a 3.00 ERA and 1.222 WHIP. Since May 31, his ERA is 1.19 and batters are slashing .183/.269/.212 against him. Although only in his second year, he has plenty of experience in high-leverage situations. He’d be a top candidate as a right-handed closer.
The Ex-Yankees
When the Pirates plucked Dennis Santana from the New York Yankees on a waiver claim, Adam Weinrib of Yanks Go Yard wrote, “While Santana’s 2024 fastball velocity and chase rates indicated the potential for greatness, his sloppy middle-middle breakers and predictable struggles rarely hinted that a breakout was on the horizon. If [pitching coach] Matt Blake and the Yankees couldn’t find it, it’s less likely the Pirates will . . .” Well, guess what? The Pirates found it. Santana was roughed up for six runs in his second Pirates appearance on June 15. Since then, his ERA is 1.57 and opponents are hitting a paltry .216/.270/.314 against him. The Pirates could stand to give Santana a more prominent role.
Even Domingo Germán could be a good option for the Pirates. He’s experienced and won’t be scared of high-leverage situations. He’s appeared in five games as a Pirate, including one start. His ERA is 6.14 and his WHIP is 1.500, thanks to an eight-run explosion against him by the Cubs on Monday. Again, let’s treat that Cubs series as an outlier. Disregarding that game, his ERA is 1.50 and his slash line against is .128/.292/.205.
The Last Word on Pirates Closer Bednar
Shelton is getting beaten up on talk shows and social media for sticking with Bednar for so long. Not that it’s not deserved, but it’s also what most managers would do. Too many of them think that pitching the ninth inning is a special talent with which few were blessed. But right now, even Rowdy Tellez, who pitched twice this week, and his straight slowball might be preferable to what we’re seeing now from Bednar. The Pirates need to install another closer and let Bednar work out his issues in a lesser role.
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