Dansby Swanson has been the top prospect in the Atlanta Braves’ farm system since his acquisition prior to last season. The Marietta-native did not disappoint in his first full professional season while appearing in 105 games over three different levels, including his big league debut in mid-August. Swanson posted a triple-slash line of .302/.361/.442 with a .803 OPS and 11 extra-base hits in just 38 games. He was able to retain his rookie status for 2017 and remains a top-10 prospect in all of Major League Baseball. However, fans would be wise to temper their expectations regarding the hot-hitting shortstop.
Tempering Expectations for Dansby Swanson
The Seager Standard
Every talented rookie and top-prospect faces high expectations, but Swanson, and other young shortstops, are facing higher than usual expectations. MLB is full of young superstars at the shortstop position, but it is the path of Corey Seager that has raised expectations for Swanson.
Seager made his debut towards the end of the 2015 season and posted some mind-blowing numbers. In 27 games, Seager slashed .337/.425/.561 with an incredible .986 OPS, 17 runs scored, and 17 runs driven in. The Dodger shortstop followed his debut with one of the best rookie seasons in recent memory. Seager posted a six WAR season accompanied by 26 homeruns, 193 hits, 105 runs, and 137 OPS+. Seager’s rookie season was the first six WAR or higher by a rookie position player since Mike Trout burst onto the scene with 10.8 WAR in 2012. The last rookie shortstop to post a more valuable season was Nomar Garciaparra back in 1997. In short, Seager set the gold standard for young shortstops.
The Comparison
Whether it is fair or not, fans and analysts relentlessly compare young players. It is no surprise that many people have begun comparing Swanson and Seager. After all, their first taste of limited action in MLB look very similar.
Seager (2015): 27 games, .337/.425/.561/.986, four home runs, 17 RBI, 17 runs.
Swanson (2016): 38 games, .302/.361/.442/.803, three home runs, 17 RBI, 20 runs.
The lazy comparison is that Swanson is prepared to be the next Seager. Both saw enough limited action to impress and get their feet wet while maintaining rookie status. Seager went on to win Rookie of the Year the next season. The assumption many make is that Swanson will undoubtedly follow in his footsteps with a massive offensive season.
The Problem
The problem with this comparison and others like it is simple: every player is different. Now it is true that there are similarities between certain players, but Swanson and Seager have more differences than similarities. Seager was drafted and signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers right out of high school. Swanson played parts of three college seasons before being selected first overall by the Arizona Diamondbacks. Seager posted at least 16 home runs during his three full minor league seasons while Swanson has logged 15 home runs in a calendar year just once. Seager rarely attempts a steal while Swanson is barely scratching the surface of his speed game. Comparisons may be a fact of life, but that does not mean every comparison is appropriate or even accurate.
The Future
This article is not at all meant to be a knock on Swanson. After all, he remains a top prospect, appears primed to anchor Atlanta’s lineup for the next decade, and is a top candidate for the 2017 Rookie of the Year Award. Swanson has all the marks of an All-Star in the making. Still, fans should learn to treat all prospects with a little bit of patience. The path to greatness is bound to involve a few bumps along the way. It is time to table the comparisons and simply enjoy the process.
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