DraftKings Case Study
There’s a feature in the Draftkings app that’s worth scrolling down to find. On the apps’ home screen, look for a link to “Average Results.” According to Draftkings, within the last week, 70% of all players that drafted a roster lost more money than they won. A majority of games on that site cater to a jackpot win–where thousands of players pick their favorite players to create their team and only the top dozens cash out. That’s a terrific incentive to win and get a rush out of watching sports but also a potential nightmare for anybody’s bankroll. There are one dollar competitions where half the field wins double and the other half gets nothing. You are much less likely to run out of money if you play in 50-50s, or if you are a beginner that just created an account, play in the games where only rookies are allowed to participate.
Now that NCAA betting in New Jersey is up and running, it’s as good a time as any to draft a benchmark of how likely you are to go broke or make money in this environment. Whether you gamble in a brick and mortar casino or put bets in on your phone, there is one concept every player has to have in mind. That would be how much money you are playing with, or the bankroll, or the 401-G.
Slots And Other BAD Casino Bets
Imagine making a bet with your friend. Say that you lose the bet if the coin they flip lands on tails and you have to give your buddy $10. If the coin lands on heads, you get $9. Your friend will oblige, BUT YOU SHOULD THINK TWICE. By making this bet and winning, your friend gets a 10% discount or edge instead of paying $10 that you would pay him if you lost. Over several hundred tosses, you will not win as much money as the person who gets $10; the edge adds up, which explains why casinos and bookies can really rake it in.
It is not hard to realize why casino are willing to put down hundreds of ticking jackpot time bombs in the form of slot machines. Even though they may have a rough streak of three “$100,000 jackpot” winners, they are going to come out profitable in the long run, because of the hundreds of players putting thousands of dollars into their slots after many losing spins. Slot machine payouts are advertised on paytables, but the real odds of how often those symbols are programmed to line up are a mystery. There is a way to calculate the casino edge off the pay schedule of a video poker machine. Even so you will realize that the several thousand coins you win hitting a royal flush is a fraction of how much a true odds pay would be.
Many table games like craps and roulette have side bets that take even more money from you quicker. It’s the even money bets, like red vs black or even vs odd numbers on the roulette table, that are some of the better bets you should make. As a matter of fact, Atlantic City’s Casino Commission has a rule that if the ball lands on Zero or Double Zero, even money bettors only lose half of their wager and get to keep the other half. That is why roulette is better played in New Jersey than in Connecticut or anywhere else.
Splitting two tens or making an insurance bet on blackjack, as well as all the one-roll bets at the craps table, and putting hundreds of dollars on slots are all regarded as ways to dent a bankroll.
Watch Out For Both Offline And Online Sportsbook Parlays
Something else you do not need a graduate school student of Calculus 401 to tell you is that the probability of stringing seven correct heads or tails outcomes is not very doable; that is why parlays are very bad for your bankroll. It’s close to impossible to meet one person who can regularly guess the winners of six straight games on a weekend. Although you see some winning parlays posted on twitter and your favorite sports news sites, these million dollar wins are truly few and far in between. It’s been said that Vegas Sportsbooks have over 20% edge on sportsbook parlay cards. They should only be played in strict moderation. The much more prudent route to gambling is betting spreads and games separately, and leaving the parlay card blank.
Stop-Loss In Stock Markets Makes Sense In Gambling Too
No matter how well you study, how often your gut feelings pan out and how many lucky breaks you find, you are still hanging your fortunes in the balance. This is why bankroll management, budgeting, being your own bookkeeper or whatever you want to call it, is crucial. Many devoted gamblers insist it is more important than just picking the right teams and making the right bets. When you start losing, ensure you step away and live to fight another day. If you are going to lose, lose at a slower rate. Only if you have the stomach to play and you believe you can still break even or do slightly better should you stay at it.
One of the best pieces of advice we can provide is to trust your gut and bet with discipline and perspective. The ONLY way to win big is to GET LUCKY. The only way to not lose is TO NOT PLAY. Here’s hoping your next bet pays off!
Embed from Getty Images