By the time Rashad Evans finds himself in the octagon to face off against Ryan Bader this October, it will be just over a month shy of the two year anniversary of his last fight. His long layoff is only one of the many variables that make his next contest so intriguing.
For one, where does Evans actually sit currently in the light heavyweight division? He is coming off two straight wins, but the quality of opponents he beat fail to inspire awe. Dan Henderson, though a legend, was not exactly in the prime of his career when he faced off against Evans. In fact, the loss to Evans was part of the worst losing streak in his storied career. Chael Sonnen was one of the top middleweights in the world for a very brief period of time, but was clearly not big enough to compete at light heavyweight. He also promptly retired from fighting after the loss to ‘Suga’ due to a steroid scandal.
Still, there is reason to believe that Rashad Evans is one of the best light heavyweights in the world, even now. Just like the difference between a good and great fighter, there is a difference between a great fighter and dominate one. The latter is a class made up of only the elite fighters in mixed martial arts history, some of them for only short periods of dominance. It is a label reserved only for the fighters in which fans safely knew, whether they wanted it to happen or not, this particular fighter would win and do it with ease.
Anderson Silva was part of that class for almost his entire UFC career. Georges St. Pierre was there for his second run as champion until his last title defense. Jon Jones currently sits there. Even fighters like Lyoto Machida, BJ Penn, and Benson Henderson had flashes of this dominance, where fans were sure they could not be beaten; that no matter what happened in a fight, they would inevitably come out the victor. This ended abruptly for the previously mentioned fighters, but for a while, they could not be touched. And ladies and gentleman, it may not be advertised much, but Rashad Evans was in this class for a long time. In fact, I would even venture to say that he is one of the rare fighters to remain in that class even after a loss.
How do you know who fits into this category? It’s more a measure of how you feel when they fight more than anything. Even when Evans took on ‘Rampage’ Jackson, two fights removed from being knocked out by Lyoto Machida for his light heavyweight belt (who subsequently lost the belt at the PPV before this particular fight), you couldn’t help but feel ‘Suga’ would win this fight ten times out of ten. At least I felt that way. No matter how good Jackson was, or how heated their rivalry got, Rashad was always coming out the victor. I think this was most evident when he was rocked by Jackson in the third round, and although people jumped out of their seats in excitement when it first happened, the inevitable truth that Rashad Evans was going to win this fight was deep in the minds of MMA fans.
As I mentioned earlier, no one can be immortal forever. All great things must come to an end. Fedor Emelianenko’s unheralded winning streak came to a screeching halt when he was finished three times in a row in the first round, and Anderson Silva’s ridiculous undefeated UFC tenure was slammed into the abyss by two second round losses to Chris Weidman and an embarrassing steroid/sex pill scandal. Lyoto Machida fit into this class early in his career, as he was the unsolvable puzzle, but Shogun Rua found a way to down the Dragon and things were never the same. Machida was still good, but not good enough to be in this elite company. Has Rashad Evans hit that point, or is he still capable of being the fighter he once was?
It’s tough to say. Like I said, he was one of the few fighters to remain elite despite being knocked out, and that is probably due to the fact that Machida was also part of that class at the same time. One of them had to lose. Same goes for Evans’ second career loss, a lopsided defeat at the hands of Jon Jones, who may even be the greatest fighter of all time. But then he lost to Antonio Nogueira. Was this due to an injury or state of mind Evans was in? Maybe, but elite fighters are so dominate that they overcome these variables. He bounced back with two wins, but as I mentioned, the opponents he defeated weren’t exactly elite.
So where does that leave Evans now, after sitting out two years with injury woes?
For one, it leaves him on the verge of a title shot. With the 205 pound division being in the state it’s in, anyone with a name can lay claim to a title shot with an impressive performance, and Evans is definitely a name. He is one of the biggest draws in UFC history, as evidenced by his startling PPV numbers when headlining a show (another reason Rashad Evans is heavily undervalued in today’s MMA landscape). In fact, Evans’ fight with Jackson was the main event of the only show in UFC history to break one million buys without a title being on the line. Rashad’s a draw, and that will help him cut the line to a title shot.
On top of that, he’s facing Ryan Bader. Like I said, the light heavyweight division isn’t at its strongest point right now. With that being said, Ryan Bader has the strongest claim to a title shot outside of the current title challenger (and some would say he is actually more qualified than him). Glover Texeira may have bounced back in his last match, but he is at the very least two fights away from another shot at the belt. Anthony Johnson, Rashad’s teammate, is coming off a loss to the sort of champion and isn’t facing an opponent that can launch him back into a title shot. Therefore, the next man in line for a title match, after Daniel Cormier and Alexander Gustafsson are done throwing down, is Ryan Bader, or the guy who beats him.
It’s not as though Rashad Evans would be ‘Just beating Ryan Bader’. That winning streak Rashad is on goes from slightly impressive to title worthy when the third victory is one over the current number one contender. He would be the only light heavyweight close to a title shot with an actual winning streak that included a top five fighter in his weight class. It might not be an air tight one, but Evans would have by far the best case at a title shot in his particular division.
So where does that leave Rashad Evans upon his return?
Somewhere between a washed up has been and a title shot it seems. For a guy who has faced nothing but elite competition on the biggest stage this sport has to offer for as long as he has, and is coming off multiple injury setbacks, that’s not all that bad. In fact, I’d say Rashad Evans is pretty lucky to be coming back into the circumstances he will soon find himself in. That, or he’s just that good.
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