Charles Dickens’s novel Great Expectations is a coming-of-age story about a young orphan named Pip. Last year, the San Diego Padres finished dead last in runs scored but have since acquired a slew of players to help remedy that problem. Namely, the recently acquired Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, and Wil Myers, are expected to carry the load, given that the three combined to have nearly 2/3rds of the home runs put up by the entire Padres team last season. That even takes into account Myers sophomore slump, which saw him hit only half the amount of home runs he hit during his Rookie of the Year season.
Great Expectations: San Diego Padres Fantasy
Clearly, the Padres are looking to make big waves in 2015. With all their new players, great expectations will no doubt be placed on the team to perform. To fantasy managers, the question is, what does this mean for the 2015 fantasy season and how should managers gauge their expectations?
The following are my ranking for the new-look San Diego Padres. I have taken into consideration their likely draft position and adjusted accordingly.
1. Pitchers
Swerve! The ol’ switcheroo.
That’s right. While the big names get all the headlines, the guys who are most likely to benefit from the onslaught of new players will be the pitching staff. After all, the Padres spacious home park is routinely among the leagues bottom in yielding home runs. Each new player is a power hitting righty, which is not a good thing for them, individually. Meanwhile, the pitchers will have an improved team offense that could net them wins. While many of their top arms are rumored to be on the trade block, whoever remains will be of great value. Besides the top guys there are a few interesting names you might want to keep track of. Brandon Morrow may have only pitched a few innings the past few years, but with his talent and Petco Park, he could be due for a big comeback year — at what would be a very low cost to his fantasy owner. Josh Johnson also re-signed with the Padres after not pitching in 2014, but remains 6’7. He too could be in line to bounce back in a big way, at very little cost to the manager.
2. Justin Upton, OF
Upton is still only 27 years old, has a good track record of production, and has been relatively healthy throughout his career. He has called Atlanta and Arizona home before his trade to San Diego which aren’t exactly band-box parks, and has played well enough in games at Petco to not be too afraid of him. Unfortunately, he’s a right handed power hitter, and while his other stats might not suffer, his home run totals likely will. For that reason I will be less inclined to take him in 2015 unless his draft value plummets, which it likely won’t.
3. Matt Kemp, OF
His balky arthritic hips aren’t the only cause for concern. Kemp has played enough games at Petco to get a good gauge for what his numbers might look like. According to the math, Kemp would hit just under 20 home runs in a full season at Petco, compared to 30 dingers in L.A.. For a guy who no longer swipes bags, and who relies heavily on the long ball to put him in the top tier of fantasy outfielders, the difference is considerable. Throw in injury concerns and I’ll likely be avoiding Mr. Kemp in 2015 unless he slides big time.
4. Wil Myers, OF
Myers is a name player who has yet to truly produce on an elite level in MLB, but will still likely be overdrafted because of his name. Even though it seems like the right play to chase him in the draft, it’s not. Yes, he’s coming into a similar situation from the one he just left in Tampa. Sure, his value will be low considering he is coming off a down year and because he likely burned many of the managers who reached for him a year ago. Obviously, he is still a super-talented 24 year old kid. But, he is still a name player! In fantasy, that’s all it takes. And he still hasn’t produced. And he just got traded to San Diego. His super-hype will compensate for all his shortcomings and then some. He will still be overdrafted and I will avoid him because of it.
5. Will Middlebrooks, 3B
Middlebrooks seems like the obvious loser of all the newly acquired players. He’s a swing and miss guy with pop, which seems like a bad combination in San Diego. Chase Headley might disagree, but it might be difficult to argue that a power hitting righty would prefer San Diego to Boston.
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