The SEC’s cannibalization of itself continues. The beast to tame the SEC are truly the beasts within. With Alabama’s victory over Mississippi State, no SEC team has a clear path to the playoffs. While Alabama still controls its own destiny and Mississippi State is still in contention, both teams have a razor-thin margin for error. More importantly, both teams have two (if they are to make it to the playoffs) tough games remaining. Auburn, Ole Miss and most likely Georgia will test both teams’ margin of error. Three teams – Auburn, LSU and Kentucky look like they have run out of gas. Each team was overmatched against resurgent programs this week. After preseason or early season success, all three ferocious feline teams look to have let go of this season’s lofty aspirations. Jekyll and Hyde East teams Georgia and Missouri continue to keep the conference, fans and voters on their toes with championship performances one week and let downs the next. Can either of these teams wrestle the East crown and contend against the West winner in Atlanta? Resurgent Arkansas and Tennessee look to be setting a solid foundation for future success. And, of course, South Carolina’s reversal of fortunes come at the cost of Will Muschamp’s job at Florida. Let’s look at this past weekend and – as always – separate the reactions from the realities in our SEC Week 12 Analysis.
Game of the Week:
Alabama 25, Mississippi State 20
The Reaction: Alabama ends Mississippi State’s dream season and makes case as best in the nation.
The Reality: Both Alabama and Mississippi State still control their own destinies, but have razor-thin margins of error.
Mississippi State, a team that has handled their new found prominence well throughout the season, finally showed some flaws against Alabama on Saturday. Alabama’s defense, while not as dominant as some headlines suggest, was effective at two things: slowing down the Bulldogs rushing game and getting turnovers. You just cannot go into Tuscaloosa, throw three interceptions, and come away with a victory. Mississippi State did show some resilience after settling down in the second half. That will bode well for them in the case of an Alabama or another one-loss team slip. But for now, Mississippi State has lost control of their own destiny. To get into the playoffs, they would need Alabama to lose to Auburn and beat Ole Miss and the East winner in the SEC Championship game. Without winning the championship game – even with just one loss – the only way to make the playoffs is a loss by two of the four other presumable conference champions (Oregon, FSU, Baylor, and Ohio State) and a loss by TCU. Alabama, on the other hand, made their playoff case, albeit not a very strong one. Alabama’s offense was pedestrian (5-14 3rd down conversions, 17 first downs, 335 total yards, 211/124) and took advantage of the Mississippi State’s turnovers. While many people are making the case that Alabama’s win should vault them into one of the top spots, it’s pretty clear that Mississippi State’s mistakes, rather than Alabama’s performance, was the difference maker here. Not to take anything away from Alabama, but the win wasn’t dominating by any stretch and certainly not enough to overtake an undefeated FSU or on-fire Oregon team. On top of this, Alabama still has to beat Auburn and the East winner in Atlanta. If they can run the table they should be in the playoff by virtue of the strength of the conference. But that’s a big “if”.
Georgia 34, Auburn 7
The Reaction: Georgia remains in contention for the East with emphatic win against Auburn.
The Reality: Auburn, out of playoff contention, has emotional and motivational let down.
The resumption of the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry was an old fashioned beat down. Georgia’s defense, which allowed Florida to run all over them, limited Auburn’s vaunted offense to seven points on 292 total yards and caused three turnovers. Georgia, like Missouri, is a frustrating Jekyll and Hyde team. Two horrible performances against South Carolina and Florida paired with two great wins against Missouri and Auburn. Georgia looked like the best team in the country on Saturday night in Athens. Unfortunately, their lack of consistency could keep them out of the conference championship game and will definitely keep them out of the playoffs. Auburn had high hopes of getting back to the National Championship this year but those dreams came crashing down against Texas A&M last week. As has been the case with both Auburn and Alabama in recent years, once title hopes are dashed the teams sometimes seem disinterested in playing. Auburn looked emotionally drained after last week’s thriller and a season’s worth of play. Will Malzahn get his team back up off the mat to play spoiler to rival Alabama’s championship hopes on November 29th, or are the Tigers already thinking about next year?
Missouri 34, Texas A&M 27
The Reaction: Missouri maintains control of the East with win against resurgent A&M.
The Reality: Missouri continues to do just enough to play SEC spoiler.
We are twelve weeks into the season and no one can figure out either Missouri or Texas A&M. Is Missouri a top team? Is Texas A&M a top team? Depends on what week and who you ask. Missouri used a very strong rushing attack to score against the Aggies and the defense stiffened in the fourth quarter. Missouri continues to do just enough to stay atop the SEC East. They will continue to get tested with games against upstart competition Tennessee and Arkansas to finish out the season. Winning those two games puts the Tigers in the SEC Championship game. Texas A&M has had a similar path this season. Impressive wins against South Carolina and Auburn coupled with poor performances against Alabama and UL-Monroe have Aggie fans begging for consistency. The Aggies have one more game against LSU – another team looking forward to 2015 – to finish up the 2014 regular season campaign and find some identity.
Arkansas 17, LSU 0
The Reaction: Arkansas and Head Coach Bret Bielema get well deserved first conference win.
The Reality: Like Auburn and Kentucky, LSU’s emotional tank is on empty.
Everyone knew that Arkansas was going to get a conference win at some point this season. As the losses continued to mount the Razorbacks continued to grind and play hard. They were finally rewarded with a big victory over LSU this weekend. Arkansas and their devastating running attack look posed to be a contender in 2015. But Head Coach Bret Bielema isn’t looking at next year quite yet. He and his team still have Ole Miss in Fayetteville this weekend (Ole Miss possibly looking forward to the Egg Bowl) and their SEC rivalry game with Missouri to finish out the campaign. Bielema wants to build as much momentum as possible going in to the offseason and getting one of these two games and getting to a bowl would do wonders for a young program trying to get back to being competitive. LSU, much like Auburn and Kentucky, just looked emotionally drained and physically worn down. The defense played very well, holding Arkansas to just 95 yards rushing and 264 overall, but the offense just couldn’t get in rhythm and never really drove the ball all night. The offense just looked like they were out of gas and not in sync with each other. LSU will have a bowl and the offseason to figure out their offense and get ready for another championship run next season.
South Carolina 23, Florida 20 (OT)
The Reaction: Gators go from entertaining thoughts of winning the East to firing Muschamp.
The Reality: South Carolina finally had luck turn their way for once this season.
Easily the most bizarre and soap opera-like contest of the weekend. South Carolina, a team that has blown three 13-plus point leads in the fourth quarter this year, blocks a Florida field goal and punt both with less than four minutes to play to enable a game tying touchdown with seconds to go. Then the Gamecocks, coming off an overtime loss at home to Tennessee last weekend, win the first overtime. And that’s not even the most dramatic storyline. Florida, reeling from early season losses and rumors of Head Coach Will Muschamp losing his job, beat rivals Tennessee and Georgia to shore up their bowl hopes and then start thinking about winning the SEC East. And just like that, in the span of three minutes, they are back heartache and announce Muschamp’s dismissal at seasons end the next day. And, to finish off this Greek Tragedy, the Ole Ball Coach Steve Spurrier commends Muschamp after the game and takes a shot at Clemson. This game had so much drama it should be replayed on the Lifetime Movie Channel.
Tennessee 50, Kentucky 16
The Reaction: Tennessee is finally delivering on the promise of the Butch Jones era.
The Reality: Dobbs has Tennessee’s offense working and Kentucky is tired and exhausted.
Speaking of tired teams, Kentucky hadn’t had a bye week in eight weeks before bringing Wildcats into Knoxville. Kentucky started the season 5-1 and hasn’t won since. They came to Knoxville needing to beat either Tennessee or Louisville to get to a bowl and validate their 5-1 start. Tennessee, also playing for their bowl lives, wasn’t going to let that happen. Tennessee’s defense battered and bruised an already aching Kentucky team all night and limited quarterback Patrick Towles’ ability to make big plays. Tennessee’s offense, under the direction of sophomore Josh Dobbs, continues to impress and move the ball effortlessly in the first half. Tennessee’s back-to-back offensive performances against South Carolina and Kentucky are their best in-conference weeks in a decade. Tennessee fans are starting to feel like they’ve turned the corner. The first two steps in rebuilding the program were returning to a bowl and getting back to dominating their traditional November rivals Kentucky and Vanderbilt. It seems they might be right. Can Tennessee sneak into a tie for third in the East with wins over Missouri and Vanderbilt to close out the campaign? If so, expect Tennessee to get plenty of attention as SEC East favorites for the 2015 campaign.
Overall SEC Analysis:
If Shakespeare were a sports writer, he couldn’t write a script like this season. The Greek Tragedy that was South Carolina versus Florida. Coming of age stories in Fayetteville and Knoxville. The tired giants of Auburn and LSU. Jekyll and Hyde on the gridiron with Georgia, Missouri and Texas A&M. And Alabama’s win against Mississippi State puts the conference on a razor-thin edge of missing the inaugural edition of the College Football Playoffs. While the conference is in jeopardy of missing the playoffs, there is a real chance it will have 13 of 14 teams bowl eligible. Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas and Kentucky all need just one more win to become bowl eligible. Florida (Eastern Kentucky), South Carolina (South Alabama) and Tennessee (Vanderbilt) seem like locks to become bowl eligible. Arkansas (Missouri and LSU) and Kentucky (Louisville after a bye week) are real possibilities but certainly not locks. If the SEC gets 13 teams in bowls and Alabama or Mississippi takes home the crown, it will be another year of conference dominance. And another year of SEC hate around the rest of the country. But what if Alabama and Mississippi State falter in rivalry games or the SEC championship game? Will the SEC still feel tops in the nation without a playoff team or national champion even if it gets 13 teams in bowls and goes 9-4, let’s say? Even worse, what happens with no national title, no playoff team and a pedestrian 7-6, 6-6, or 6-5 (or even worse) record in bowl games? Will the SEC still claim to be the best. The only good thing is that we don’t have to wait much longer to see how it all plays out. We have two more weeks of the regular season, conference championship week and then bowls begin. As the book of 2014 begins to come to a close, the most exciting chapters are yet to come.
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