Could the SEC really miss the inaugural College Football Playoff? at the beginning of the season, much of the discussion amongst college football fans and media centered around the appropriateness of the conference getting two teams in the playoffs at the expense of at least one champion from another conference. Now, people are looking at the remaining four weeks of the season and wondering if ANY SEC team can survive and make it to the CFP. We knew at the beginning of the season that the SEC West was going to be a tough division to get through. Most assumed, however, that the power teams would be Alabama, LSU and Auburn. That set up only two big games in the last four weeks: Auburn-Georgia this week and Alabama-Auburn in the Iron Bowl.
Most people thought the SEC’s piece of the Playoff puzzle would either be clear by now or be dependent on the Iron Bowl. With the rise of Mississippi State and Ole Miss, however, the season’s crucible shifts dramatically. The Iron Bowl is still important, but the Egg Bowl might be the most important conference game of the season and the SEC Championship Game could be part of the conference’s doomsday scenario. An examination of why SEC fans are actually nervous about getting a conference team into the Playoff follows.
Assumptions: Let’s base our analysis of the SEC scenarios on a few assumptions from around the nation. While any team can beat any other team on any given Saturday, these assumptions look pretty solid. First, we will assume that Florida State finishes undefeated with wins against Miami, Boston College, Florida and Duke in the ACC Championship Game. An undefeated defending champion automatically gets a bid into the Playoff. Second, assume Oregon wins out against Colorado, Oregon State and Arizona State in the Pac-12 Championship game. Oregon is healthy again and, unlike previous seasons, seems to be peaking at the right time. Next, assume either Baylor and/or TCU win out and finish at 11-1. If Baylor beats Kansas State convincingly and both teams finish 11-1, with an offensive thriller between them, that only exacerbates the worry for the SEC. Just think back to the Alabama-LSU National Championship Game. A Baylor loss to Kansas State doesn’t help the SEC that much. Lastly, we will assume that Ohio State wins out to include the B1G Championship Game. Again, all of these are assumptions, but I think they’re valid ones. That leaves four (maybe five) teams at 11-1 and four of those five will be conference champions.
What our assumptions really tell us is that a two-loss SEC Champion might not be good enough to make the Playoff.
Now let’s take a look at what worries SEC fans right now.
Doomsday Scenario: SEC East team wins the Conference Championship. The SEC East champion will be a two-loss team and no matter who it is, they will have a bad loss. If it’s Georgia, which it probably will be, the loss to Florida is justification enough for the committee to keep them out. The committee seems to weigh wins over losses, and Georgia’s win over Clemson has lost its luster. A win over Auburn would help, but that would be Auburn’s third loss and probably would not outweigh Georgia’s horrible loss to Florida. Missouri has no quality wins and has a loss to a B1G doormat Indiana. There is 0% chance Missouri gets into the CFP even if the Tigers win out and finish as SEC Champions with two losses.
The caveat here would be a 12-0 Mississippi State team losing in the championship game to a tough, 2-loss Georgia team. With our assumptions showing a 13-0 FSU and 12-1 Oregon, Baylor and/or TCU and Ohio State all as conference champions, it’s hard to see a 12-1 non-conference champion Mississippi State chosen over SEC Champion Georgia and any of the other 12-1 conference champions. While this scenario would almost assuredly keep the SEC out of the Playoff, it’s the least likely scenario.
The Nail-Biter Scenario (One-loss, Conference Champion Mississippi State): Mississippi State is the trickiest part of this entire equation. If Mississippi State loses to Alabama but still wins the SEC Championship (by way of an Alabama loss to Auburn), that puts Mississippi State at 12-1 and a conference champion. A loss to Alabama would certainly be a quality loss, and wins against Auburn, Ole Miss and LSU are quality wins. One would think that a 12-1 SEC Champion would get the benefit of the doubt with the selection committee even without a marquee out-of-conference win. This scenario is really where a 12-1 Baylor AND TCU threatens the conference. Would the committee jump a non-conference champion TCU over a 12-1 conference champion Mississippi State?
The Uh-Oh Scenario, or How I Learned to Hate November 29th: Either Mississippi State or Alabama will win this weekend. That then puts the onus on the winner to produce in their rivalry game in the last week of the season. Both Auburn and Ole Miss can play spoilers to their nemeses during the last week of the season. This is actually two scenarios.
This scenario includes Mississippi State winning this weekend and then losing against Ole Miss –OR— Alabama winning this weekend and both Alabama and Mississippi State losing to their arch-rivals in the last week of the season. Could Saturday, November 29th be the day of reckoning for the Southeastern Conference? The day the conference fells itself and gives everyone 2-losses? It very well could be. Let’s be clear about one thing: most SEC fans will cheer for the conference in general, but if you think any Ole Miss or Auburn fan will give one iota of care to “The Conference” over beating Mississippi State or Alabama, respectively, you have clearly never spent one day in the South. If the latter happens, and all teams have two losses…then we move to…
The Bow-Tie Scenario, Or Deuces Wild (Ole Miss wins the West): Mississippi State’s dream season comes crashing down after a loss to Alabama and a loss to Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. Alabama beats Mississippi State and then loses another gut-wrenching game to already-eliminated Auburn. Guess who wins the West? That’s right, the Ole Miss Rebels. Would the committee see the Rebels loss to Auburn as almost a win due to Treadwell’s injury (key injuries are part of their stated consideration process)? If you cancel out that loss, Ole Miss would have wins against Alabama, Mississippi State and Boise State along side two close, heartbreaking losses against LSU and Auburn. Would the committee put a two-loss SEC champion Ole Miss in the Playoff ahead of a 12-1 B1G Champ Ohio State? Maybe, but not likely. Ahead of a 12-1 TCU that doesn’t win the Big 12? Once again, maybe, but not likely.
So with all the scenarios above, how does the SEC get into the Playoff? That question is much easier. There are only two ways: either Alabama or Mississippi State wins out.
The Alabama Scenario: Alabama wins this week and runs the table all the way through to the SEC Championship Game. That leaves a 12-1 conference champion Alabama up against the other three conference champion 12-1 teams. With a quality loss to Ole Miss and quality wins over West Virginia, Mississippi State, and LSU, Alabama is a lock for the Playoffs, probably as a 2-seed behind Oregon.
The Mississippi State Scenario: Of course, all of this worry is for naught if Mississippi State wins out. If the Bulldogs go unbeaten the rest of the way, they are the Playoff’s top seed and the road to Dallas goes through Starkville.
So, let’s review:
To get into the Playoffs, here are the only three possibilities (assuming Georgia wins East):
13-0 Mississippi State: must still beat Alabama, Ole Miss, and Georgia.
12-1 Mississippi State Conference Champs: must still beat Alabama and/or Ole Miss, have Alabama lose to Auburn if Alabama beats Mississippi State and Georgia. If Mississippi State beats Alabama this weekend (and Vandy next), they need no help from anyone to get to the SEC Championship Game if they lose to Ole Miss.
12-1 Alabama Conference Champs: must still beat Mississippi State, Auburn and Georgia.
And that’s about it. Pending a collapse from two of the other top five teams (FSU, Oregon, TCU, Baylor and Ohio State), those are your only three scenarios that get an SEC team into the Playoff. There is no chance for two SEC teams at this point.
A Mississippi State win over Alabama would greatly improve the Conference’s chances on getting into the Playoff. If Mississippi State wins this weekend, they don’t necessarily have to win against Ole Miss. They could survive a loss to Ole Miss as long as they won the SEC Championship Game the following week. If Alabama were to win this weekend, it would mean that both Alabama and Mississippi State MUST win on November 29th. Both teams must win the SEC Championship game to make it into the CFP.
Is the SEC in real danger of not putting a team in the Playoff? Absolutely. In fact, considering the schedules and solid assumptions around the rest of college football, it actually looks more likely than not that the SEC will not send a team to the inaugural College Football Playoff. The conference supported a move to a playoff because it thought it would guarantee one, maybe two teams a year with a chance to play for the national title. Has that line of thought backfired? Using the BCS metrics, the conference would be almost assured of a title game team, even at this point. Has the conference fallen prey to that most common of slayers of men and teams – hubris? Or will the conference come out of this mess as it has so many times over the past 15 years (specifically nine in the last 16), as home conference to the National Champion? We still have four more weeks to see.
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