When it comes to MLS in Cascadia the Vancouver Whitecaps are often overlooked. It seems like every Seattle vs. Portland match is on national TV, while nobody talks about Vancouver.
That will probably be the case again this weekend, but it shouldn’t be. When Portland travels to Vancouver to take on the Whitecaps at 10:30 ET Saturday night, all eyes in MLS should be on BC Place for what may be the most important Cascadia Cup match-up of the season.
Last week’s Seattle vs. Portland match may have gotten all of the attention for the rivalry, but as far as playoff races go, this match is the one that matters most.
Vancouver leads Portland by just two points in the race for the 5th playoff spot, with one game in hand and 10 games to play (9 for Portland). Seattle, LA Galaxy, FC Dallas, and Real Salt Lake are all at least 9 points ahead of Vancouver, so even the 4 seed seems out of reach for the Whitecaps and Timbers. While Colorado is only a point behind Portland, they’ve lost five straight and with a rash of injuries to important players, seem to be fading quickly.
It basically comes down to Vancouver and Portland for the fifth and final playoff spot. The two play in Vancouver this weekend, then play each other again in Portland on Sept. 20.
The match is also critical in Vancouver’s push to win the Cascadia Cup, awarded to the team which earns the most points in games between Vancouver, Seattle, and Portland. The Whitecaps currently trail Seattle by one point, but have three remaining Cascadia Cup matches, while Seattle has only one. Portland, with only one point, is already out of the running. Vancouver can clinch the Cascadia Cup and repeat as champions if they beat Portland twice, OR beat Portland once and manage at least a draw in their final Cascadia Cup match against Seattle. A win this weekend against Portland would set the Whitecaps clear on their way to repeating as Kings of Cascadia.
Neither team comes into the match-up in fantastic form, though Portland has a slight advantage recently, having picked up three wins and a draw in their last six. Vancouver has just one win and 4 draws over the same period.
Vancouver’s struggles seem to have materialized mostly on offense, having scored only 5 goals in their last 6 games. However, their defense has been quite solid, conceding only 5 goals in the same period. Portland’s woes are exactly the opposite, have scored 11 goals in 6 games, but defending poorly and conceding 11 goals.
Key Players:
Diego Valeri is an easy pick for Portland, with 5 goals in 8 games. Still, Darlington Nagbe may be the key to their playoff hopes. He has yet to score in MLS play this season after scoring 9 last year, and needs to get onto the score sheet for the Timbers to have any hope of catching up with the 5th place Whitecaps. If Portland is going to beat Vancouver, Nagbe will have to start playing a major role this week.
Nagbe’s speed and close ball control are key to Portland’s attack. Even without scoring, he can attract defensive attention and set others up with space to play into. Check out how he starts the break to set up this Urruti goal against Vancouver earlier this year:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQfstQh9NHc
Maxi Urruti has 8 goals this year and his work rate and high pressure personifies the Timbers at their best. If he starts, his pressure could cause problems for Vancouver. This goal earlier in the season against Seattle is a great example of Urruti causing problems with his high pressure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVF59IvoiRc
However, Urruti been splitting time with Fanendo Adi. After Adi scored a brace against Seattle last weekend, Urruti may not start. Still, expect him to get some time in this game.
For Vancouver, Pedro Morales is the man. He’s got 7 goals and 7 assists in MLS this year and as he goes so goes the Vancouver attack. Tellingly, Morales has 1 goal and 1 assist in Vancouver’s last 7 games. Unsurprisingly, his assist came in their only win (2-0 vs. SKC) and his goal came in the only other game in which they’ve scored more than once.
What to watch for:
Seattle tore Portland to shreds when they broke forward with speed last week. They are one of the best teams in the league at getting down the wings at an incredibly fast pace, where they then play balls to Obafemi Martins and Clint Dempsey for the finish. While Vancouver doesn’t quite have the quality of Martins and Dempsey up top, they’ve got pace almost beyond belief and have used that to beat defenses far better than the Timbers, case-in point being their recent 2-0 victory over Sporting Kansas City.
Here’s Darren Mattocks’ goal against SKC. The Whitecaps intercept a pass in their defensive third of the field and it’s off to the races.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2JF92NjXHE
When they’re not flying down the wings on the counter, Vancouver’s other favorite way to score is from distance. Vancouver has one of the highest rates of shots assisted by through balls in MLS at 10.5 percent. They also lead the league in goals per shot from outside the box, shots from outside the box, and shots on target from outside the box.
Just like Seattle last week, Vancouver comes into the match struggling to score. Maybe they’ll also find that the cure to scoring problems is facing the Portland Timbers and their porous defense.
Given the importance of the match it would be fair to expect a cagey, low-scoring encounter. But given Portland’s struggles to keep anybody out of the net, it seems more likely that a score line similar to their last match-up, which Vancouver won 4-3.
Both teams have been so inconsistent recently that predicting a winner is nearly impossible. That said, it’s easy to believe that the winner of this game will take a huge step towards the 5th seed in the Western Conference playoffs.
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