It is hard to believe that Rick Porcello is entering his sixth season with the Detroit Tigers. The 25-year-old has been steady in the Tigers rotation since joining the staff in 2009, but this upcoming season will be the year he breaks out and really establishes himself as one of the most dependable pitchers in the game.
Slanted Sabr: Rick Porcello Due for a Huge Year
Last week I told you why Homer Bailey was worth every cent of the $105 million extension he signed with the Reds based on his advanced metrics. With this piece I want to help you understand why Rick Porcello is due for a tremendous year that should open a lot of eyes about just how good of a pitcher Porcello is and how much better he can be going forward with a much better defensive team around him.
Rick Porcello had a pretty good year in 2013 for the Tigers, despite pitching in front of one of the worst defensive infields in baseball for most of the season. Before the Tigers traded for Jose Iglesias, they had arguably the worst defense in the American League. While the Tigers played sub-par defense on the infield in 2012, going into 2013 with Miguel Cabrera at third base paired with Jhonny Peralta at shortstop most of the year looked plausible on paper. The Tigers knew the combination would not be good, but they did not know just how bad it would be. It was soon clear Peralta had the range of a bronze statue and Cabrera was hobbled by injuries that severely affected his defense. Add to that the fact that Prince Fielder at first base was actually a downgrade over what Cabrera had provided at first base in previous years for the Tigers, and Omar Infante had an unusually poor year, and you can see that the Tigers infield wasn’t going to do their pitchers any favours.
If there is only one defensive metric that you pay attention to, I beg you to use DRS (defensive runs saved). So using DRS, just how bad was the Tigers defense in 2013? Brutal.
On the infield , the Tigers posted below average numbers at all positions, Prince Fielder at 1st base posted a -13 DRS, Omar Infante surprisingly posted a -5 DRS, Miguel Cabrera posted a -18 DRS and Jhonny Peralta led the group with an even 0 DRS. Needless to say, Tiger pitchers were at the mercy of terrible infield defense most of the year and none of them felt the wrath of that any worse than Rick Porcello who is primarily a ground ball inducing pitcher.
In terms of ground ball percentage, the rest of the Tigers rotation posted these numbers – 36.6% (Max Scherzer), 38.4% (Justin Verlander), 54.3% (Doug Fister) and 45.4% (Anibal Sanchez).
Since joining the Tigers rotation, Porcello has posted ground ball rates of 54.2% (’09), 50.3% (’10), 51.4% (’11), 53.2% (’12), and a career high 55.3% in 2013. It had to at least bother Porcello knowing that every time he induced a ground ball, it led to a circus show on the infield. Tigers fans should remember the two games against the Angels that Porcello pitched and his infield couldn’t make a simple play and accounted for multiple earned runs against. That kind of thing won’t happen this year with a revamped Tigers infield. You probably won’t see Porcello give up .318 BABIP against him this year like he did in 2013, or the .348 BABIP against him that he had in 2012.
The best move the Tigers made in the off season was getting the MVP, Miguel Cabrera back to first base and away from the hot corner. I applaud Cabrera and his work ethic and willingness to help the team at any cost, but having him at third base was not the answer, He was dreadful all year. Cabrera won’t win a gold glove anytime soon at first, however his DRS at 1st for the Tigers were more acceptable than the -18 last year at 3rd, in those years he posted -7, -3, -1.
The Tigers traded away Prince Fielder for Ian Kinsler and pairing him up with Jose Iglesias should be a nice combo up the middle for Detroit. Iglesias came over from Boston late last year and was spectacular. Only trailing Manny Machado in many defensive metrics, and having the most range of any shortstop in the American league. Iglesias and Kinsler will redefine defense in Detroit. So how does the Tigers infield project for 2014? Much better than 2013.
In fact, the Tigers are projected for a total of 26 DRS, which is only behind the 32 DRS that the Royals are projected for. This would be a huge leap up from the -21 total DRS they had in 2013. (projections from the clubhouse confidential crew on MLB Network and Brian Kenny.)
Nobody on the Tigers staff will benefit more from an upgraded defense than Rick Porcello. If he maintains his ground ball % and finally has a good defense behind him, the sky is the limit for Porcello. I know that Porcello has a high career ERA, but just like the win-loss stat, ERA is not a completely independent stat that is based solely on that pitchers performance. Using FIP (fielding independent pitching) and also factoring in batting average on balls in play against a pitcher is much more accurate when looking at a total body of work.
In closing, lets take a look at the Porcello’s career ERA totals matched up against his FIP / BABIP for those same years, the results don’t lie.
YEAR ERA FIP BABIP
2010 4.92 4.31 .307
2011 4.75 4.06 .316
2012 4.59 3.91 .348
2013 4.32 3.53 .315
2014 3.86 3.19 .302 (projected)
It is amazing what a good defense can do for a pitcher and his secondary numbers. The Tigers are relying on a huge year from Porcello and every sign in the book points towards him delivering in 2014.
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