If you had told me a month ago that I would be writing about Minnesota playing meaningful games at Thanksgiving, I would have patiently explained that I cover college football, not hockey. Yet here we are, on November 23, with a ranked Gopher squad taking on a ranked Wisconsin team, in what figures to be a fun game to watch. Go figure.
When Minnesota Has The Ball
Sophomore Philip Nelson has taken over the reins at quarterback, after splitting duties with Mitch Leidner earlier in the season. Nelson’s numbers are respectable, but not eye-popping; he’s thrown for 1,128 yards, nine TDs and four INTs, with a completion percentage of 57.2. Since the team’s loss to Iowa on September 28, Nelson has thrown seven TDs and rushed for three more, without any picks. Unfortunately for the Gophers, leading receiver Derrick Engel suffered a knee injury against Penn State two weeks ago and it doesn’t sound likely that he’ll play this weekend. Freshman tight end Maxx Williams is the team’s second-leading receiver, and he’s had some impressive catches this season, but the loss of Engel would definitely be felt. However, Minnesota has been successful on the ground this year as well. Junior David Cobb has emerged as the lead back, with seven TDs, and is just 58 yards away from becoming the Gophers’ first 1,000-yard rusher since first-round draft pick Laurence Maroney in 2006. Cobb is averaging 94.6 yards per game on the season, and well over 100 yards per game since the Gophers’ last loss. If Donnell Kirkwood, who was injured in the opener, is healthy enough to contribute more- and keep in mind the Gophers had a bye last week- it could help tremendously. Don’t overlook the quarterbacks, either- they’ve combined for over 700 yards and 13 TDs.
Wisconsin has a rugged, experienced defense made up of nearly all upperclassmen. One guy to keep an eye on will be senior linebacker Chris Borland, who was named to the Butkus Award (most outstanding linebacker) and Bronko Nagurski Trophy (most outstanding defensive player) watch lists. The Badgers rank seventh in the country in run defense, allowing just 98.8 yards per game. If they’re able to shut down Cobb early, we could see some designed runs for the quarterback. The offensive line has been excellent, both at protecting Nelson and opening holes for the running backs, but they haven’t faced a defense near Wisconsin’s caliber yet (the closest was 13th-ranked Michigan, and the Gophers lost that game badly). The Badgers’ pass offense is currently ranked 11th, allowing 189 yards per game. Look for tight end Maxx Williams to see quite a few balls thrown his way, since at 6’4″ he has a height advantage over most defensive backs. It will be interesting to see if Wisconsin’s defense can bait a relatively inexperienced Nelson into some poor decisions or bad throws.
When Wisconsin Has The Ball
The ground game is where it’s at for the Badgers, who are averaging over 300 rushing yards a game, and have TWO 1,000 rushers already. Melvin Gordon and James White have combined for 2,462 yards and 24 TDs, and even number three back Corey Clement has 515 yards and seven TDs. Quarterback Joel Stave isn’t a runner, but he’s a pretty decent passer who will likely hit the 2,000-yard mark this weekend. Stave has passed for 16 TDs, but has also thrown eight INTs. He can spread the ball around- the Badgers have seven different players with at least one receiving TD this season- but his main target is senior Jared Abbrederis, with 849 yards and six TDs. The team’s third leading receiver is RB James White, so the Gophers will have to be aware of his potential to not only take handoffs, but to catch the ball out of the backfield.
The main task for Minnesota, however, will be to contain the two-headed monster that is the Badgers’ running attack. Senior defensive tackle and likely first-round draft pick Ra’Shede Hageman will have to have a big game. Obviously, Abbrederis is the guy requiring the tightest coverage from the secondary. If Minnesota can bottle up White and Gordon, and force the Badgers into a lot of third-and-long situations, they have a chance. Stave has two nice weapons in the passing game in Abbrederis and Jacob Pedersen, but eight picks tells me there’s potential for some errant throws and for Minnesota to do well in the turnover battle. Senior linebacker Aaron Hill is another Gopher defender to watch for.
Prediction:
What Minnesota has done this season is truly remarkable. If I had a vote for the Coach Of The Year award, I wouldn’t even have to think about it- Jerry Kill and Tracy Claeys would have my vote, hands down. That said, this is still a fairly young team, and as much as I would like to pick the Gophers to win the game, I just can’t quite do it. Wisconsin’s defense is too experienced and too stingy. Wisconsin 35, Minnesota 21
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