UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Sonnen comes to us this Saturday night from the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. Before the first punch is even thrown, this event would have already made history as it is the very first live event on the newly launched network Fox Sports 1. And what an event this is going to be, as this fight card is stacked with plenty of exciting match-ups. Needless to say, the potential for thrilling finishes is as high as it has ever been. Perhaps what makes this fight card so intriguing is the fact that there is literally something for everyone. If you are a fan of wrestling, Sonnen has got you covered. Jiu-jitsu? I hear Lauzon is good at that. Striking? McGregor will wow you. Technique? Faber is on this card. Power? Overeem vs. Brown anyone? The brilliance of this card cannot be understated but the time for small talk is over. It is time to get right into the preview and predictions. Let’s Go!!!
Joe Lauzon vs. Michael Johnson
This is just a great way to begin the night’s main card. Joe Lauzon returns to the cage for the first time since his epic bout with Jim Miller, a fight that took place four months after Lauzon threw down with Jamie Varner in a Fight of The Year performance. Lauzon is really good no matter where this fight takes place. He has good possession, clean striking and is a whiz on the mat. The fact that he is fighting in his backyard, the scene of his destruction of Gabe Ruediger at UFC 118, should fire up Lauzon some more.
On the other hand, Michael Johnson comes into this fight on a two fight losing streak. Those losses have come to opponents that are arguably not of the same caliber as Lauzon, which does not bode well for “The Menace”. This is not a knock on Johnson as he does have the wrestling chops to give Lauzon fits on the mat. He also has exceptional power, which he displayed when he knocked out Danny Castillo back in October.
Michael Johnson is without a doubt a formidable opponent for Lauzon but I just do not see a road to victory for him, especially since this is Lauzon’s backyard. I fully expect Lauzon to use his striking to get this fight to the mat, where I give him the advantage. Lauzon gets the submission win and sends his home crowd into a frenzy.
Prediction: Lauzon via 1st Round Submission
Uriah Hall vs. John Howard
Make no mistake about it: this is the biggest fight of Uriah Hall’s career. Going into The Ultimate Fighter 17 finale, Hall was widely considered to be the best fighter in the house. Coming out of it, we were left with more questions than we had answers. Hall would not live up to the huge potential he had and dropped a highly disappointing split decision to Kelvin Gastelum. In that fight Hall showed none of the killer instinct that he displayed while in the house. Questions surrounding his potential are sure to follow him going into this fight.
Howard makes his return to the UFC after just over 2 years away. It goes without saying that he will be determined to rinse the bad taste out of his mouth, a taste caused by his three fight losing streak inside the Octagon. Howard has actually done well for himself outside of it. He has racked up a record of 6-1, with five of those wins coming via some form of knock out.
Howard is a tough guy that is more than capable of pulling something out of the hat. However, I don’t believe we’ll see consecutive bad outings by Hall. While Howard is certainly out to prove that he belongs in the UFC, Hall is trying to prove that the hype is real and that his last fight was an anomaly. Expect Hall to return to form and brutally KO Howard in the process.
Prediction: Hall via 2nd Round KO
Matt Brown vs. Mike Pyle
This is my early pick for fight of the night. Brown’s career resurgence has been one of the most fascinating things to witness. If you had told me a couple of years ago that in 2013 Matt Brown would be on a five fight winning streak I probably would have asked if you were drunk. Well guess what? He is on a five fight winning streak and each fight has been more impressive than the last one. We always knew that Brown was a scrappy guy and while that hasn’t changed, he is beginning to show beautiful technique. If he pulls off another incredible win he could be a fight or two away from a title shot. Shocking, isn’t it?
Speaking of career resurgences, Mike Pyle has won seven of his last eight fights which includes his current four fight winning streak. What is fascinating is the fact that he is doing this at the ripe old age of 37! His only loss in the last three and a half years came at the hands of some kid named Rory MacDonald. I’m sure you have heard of him. We’ve known about Pyle’s ground game for some time but it has been his striking that is getting the job done lately. He has stopped three of his last four fights via strikes. Not too bad for an older veteran of the sport.
It is nearly impossible to choose a winner of this fight. As cheesy as this may sound the fans are going to be the true winners. There is virtually no chance that this fight becomes the second coming of MacDonald vs. Ellenberger. Since I have to choose a winner I’m going with Brown. I think that this fight will play out in his favor. It won’t be the prettiest fight ever but a three round slugfest is in order. Brown wins via unanimous decision.
Prediction: Brown via Unanimous Decision
Urijah Faber vs. Yuri Alcantara
By now, we all know every Urijah Faber statistic that exists. Perhaps the greatest statistic is 17-0, as in he is undefeated in non-title fights in his career. He has made his last two fighters, top 10 guys in their own right, look like amateurs. When you fight Faber you have to be cognizant of his chokes. This lesson was learned the hard way by his last two opponents, Scott Jorgensen and Ivan Menjivar; two fighters he finished with rear naked chokes. Faber has yet to be matched in non-title fights, until…
Now! Yuri Alcantara is one the most gifted bantamweights on the planet. Alcantara is blessed with a ground game that is every bit as good as his striking. Out of his 28 career wins, 12 have been stopped via submission and 12 by strikes. Simply put, he represents a threat to Faber no matter where the fight goes. 1 is the key number here though as in his only loss once since October 2009: a tough unanimous decision loss to Hacran Dias.
Look, Urijah Faber doesn’t lose non-title fights. He just doesn’t. While it is certainly tempting to pick Alcantara so that I can look like a genius if he pulls it off I simply cannot go against history. I fully expect Alcantara to make things very uncomfortable for Faber throughout the fight. Yet in the end, Faber should win this one by submission. A choke? I think so.
Prediction: Faber via 3rd Round Submission
Alistair Overeem vs. Travis Browne
Two hard hitting heavyweights? Oh yes, there will be a spectacular finish. Overeem comes into this fight fresh off of eating dessert. His dessert of choice? Humble pie. For two rounds he was doing as he wished against “Bigfoot” Silva. The problem is what he wished to do was mock Silva. This cost him dearly as he was demolished in the opening seconds of round number three. If there is anyone that can rebound from that it is Overeem. He has proven before that he can battle through adversity, something he very well might have to do in this fight.
Browne, who at one point was also knocked out by Silva rebounded nicely in his last fight. At the TUF 17 finale, he brutalized Gabriel Gonzaga with a series of huge elbows all while Gonzaga had him up against the fence. The win was a huge one for Browne, who now has a record of 14-1-1. “Hapa” is a devastating striker who can end a fight in a split second. His Superman punch knockout of Stefan Struve remains in the highlight reels.
Stylistically this is the most fascinating fight on the card. Though both guys fancy themselves as strikers, Overeem does have a lethal ground game that matches his striking. While Overeem will be the better overall striker in this fight, I worry about his ability to take a hard punch. The question also lingers: how has he recovered from the assault put on him by Silva? Browne is the betting underdog and rightly so. However, I can envision him winning this fight by TKO, which is exactly what I am going with.
Prediction: Browne via 2nd Round TKO
Shogun Rua vs. Chael Sonnen
There are two things about this fight; it is either going to be very good or very bad. There is nothing in the middle. Shogun has alternated wins and losses in his last eight fights. His last time out he was completely outclassed by Alexander Gustafsson. Sadly, what we are witnessing is not the Shogun of 2005. The year when he stopped Rampage, Lil Nog, Overeem, and Arona. Shogun has become a shell of his former self, though he remains an exciting fighter. He has not won a fight against a contender since he took the light heavyweight title from Lyoto Machida at UFC 113 on May 8, 2010.
Sonnen comes into this fight on a two fight losing streak. The silver lining in that is that those losses have come to Anderson Silva and Jon Jones, two of the best fighters of all time. Sonnen currently has a lengthy winning streak in non-title fights. He has not lost a non-title fight since February 21, 2010. During that time he is 5-0. Sonnen has some of the best MMA wrestling in the business. What makes him a nightmare match-up is the fact that there isn’t much you can do to stop his takedowns. Not to mention the fact that he is pretty big at 205 and 185.
Sonnen’s Achilles heel has always been a fighter with great BJJ, and Shogun certainly fits that bill. While Shogun is great on the ground, I don’t anticipate him wanting to spend any time there. There is no secret as to where Sonnen wants the fight to go. With that said, even though everyone including Shogun knows that, he probably won’t be able to stop it from happening. In the end, Sonnen wins by effectively neutralizing Shogun’s attack, en route to a decision win.
Prediction: Sonnen via Unanimous Decision
Preliminaries Quick Picks
Michael McDonald over Brad Pickett via UD
Conor McGregor over Max Holloway via TKO
Mike Brown over Steven Siler via SD
Diego Brandao over Daniel Pineda via TKO
Manvel Gamburyan over Cole Miller via UD
Ovince St. Preux over Cody Donovan via SD
Ramsey Nijem over James Vick via UD
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