Yesterday afternoon twelve big baseball fans got together in no-where Quebec for the 7th Annual League of Champions (LoC) Draft. Now online drafts are fun, but don’t provide nearly the interaction that a live draft environment creates. There is only so much typing that one can do during an online draft…while a live draft offers plenty of opportunity to make you’re views (or rather displeasure known). I’ll take a closer look at each teams roster before the start of the season (and give my predictions for the season), but I thought I’d walk through my draft picks. Since there is a high number of leagues, I’ll break down the draft into sections to reflect how my drafting stategy changed during the draft.
When the Yahoo! randomized draft selection was completed, I was awarded the first overall pick. In most years, I would be salivating at the chance to take the best player off the board in a re-draft league but the LoC scoring system is different enough that I hated having this pick going into the draft. This is a points league, so I was less concerned about statistical categories and more concerned about offensive output. The added benefit of having drafted with the same group of players for the past seven season also worked into my head as I had to take into account those players who loved to reach for players or hoarded starting pitchers. I had worked out a strategy for the first three rounds, and I could only hope that it would stand. After the first three, I would adjust accordingly in order to draft the best lineup I could.
So who did I take with the 1st overall pick? Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun…it was none of them, nor was it Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw. I fact, I took the player who I think has the most upside of any player available…Stephen Strasburg. There is little evidence that says Strasburg will not exceed his 2012 numbers, especially given that he was limited to 159 innings last season. Now two years removed from Tommy John Surgery, Strasburg is set to campaign for what I consider to be his first real season of major league baseball. If Strasburg meets expectations, he will produce likely 200 more fantasy points than Trout, Cabrera or Braun. There was also no way that Strasburg would have snaked back to me at pick 24, so I had to take Strasburg went there and hoped that more starters would go before my next pick.
Sure enough a total of six starting pitchers went in the first round. In fact, 3 of the top 5 picks were starters and by the time I selected R.A. Dickey with my second overall pick, a total of 13 pitchers went in first two rounds (12 starters and Closer Greg Kimbrel). I absolutely love the idea of R.A. Dickey pitching in an indoor baseball stadium. The knuckleball will get a real chance to move around in the Rogers Centre. So part two of my first three pick stategy worked out as I planned…and then it was time to execute part 3…I reached for Bryce Harper. Why? Cause Harper is the real deal, and as a fantasy player might contribute numbers similar to Mike Trout (who has been the consensus #1 pick in Yahoo! this season). I’m bullish on Harper enough to say that the kid may outplay Trout this year…let’s just say I am not all that happy about Trout’s spot in the batting order (Trout would be a better 3 or 4 hitter than leadoff). Harper will be hitting in the heart of the Washington lineup and get protection of Ryan Zimmerman. Again, the reach on Harper was dictated by who was in the draft and my positioning at the end of the draft order.
My original plan for the 4th round was to solidfy my starting rotation with another starter (namely Yu Darvish), but when was selected 5 picks ahead of me, I obviously made my distaste known and quickly decided to fill my roster systematically (which I had intended to do with my 5th pick). I started with first base by drafting Adrian Gonzalez, who is hitting in a great lineup. Gonzalez’s return to the National League for a full season should mean some great numbers for my fantasy team. With Kimbrel being taken in the second round (a BIG REACH), I decided to take Jonathan Papelbon with my 5th pick. Papelbon may not get the prettiest of saves, but he strikes out enough batters as a closer to consider him one of the few elite closers in the majors. Again, this is a points league and while I wouldn’t consider taking a closer this early in a roto format, I would in a points league. Closers are capable of racking up 15 points in a single inning of work, which on average is about 50% of the points a SP would provide over a 7 inning stretch.
To my surprise, Yovani Gallardo was unexpectedly available. I guess that happens when James Shields, Brendon Morrow and Jordon Zimmerman all go ahead of him. Not sure why others aren’t impressed with Gallardo, who posted 25 quality starts in 2012 (75% of his games started). I will consider this my first real steal of the draft. I would have expected Gallardo to go 2 round earlier. With my next pick, I went back to finding quality positional players and settled on Jacoby Ellsbury, who should complement Bryce Harper’s numbers in my outfield. I surprised myself a bit in the 8th round by selecting Aaron Hill. I really am not a fan of Hill, but I had to go with the numbers for this league and my strategy to fill my roster spots. Still, the following pick could be potentially worse (or better if it works out), as I drafted Andrelton Simmons. If I reached for Harper, I really reached for Simmons but I think this kid is something special at a position that really has no depth for fantasy baseball. He’s also hitting at the top of a stacked Atlanta Braves lineup.
In the 9th round, I reacted to a shift towards starting pitching again by the other managers by selecting my second closer in Sergio Romo. Yeah he had the bad outting in the World Baseball Classic, but Romo has been nothing but effective in his MLB career. He was great as the setup man to Brian Wilson and after sealing the deal for the Giants during the 2012 World Series run, he’ll be back as the team’s closer. After Romo, I looked at my draft page and saw that I still had plenty of positions to fill (1 OF, 3B, C, and Util). I certainly wasn’t going to select a catcher, and I had someone I was going to take a gamble on at third base this season who was safe from being selected. The next best bat (in my opinion) that I wanted was Anthony Rizzo, who will filly the Utility spot for my team. With the 12th pick, I ended up with another surprise…Micheal Bourne. The recently signed outfielder for the Cleveland Indians was there and I had an OF spot calling his name. With my OF and Closer situation solved, I turned my attention to starting pitching and went with Alex Cobb, who presents a great upside heading into 2013. I had three legitimate starters in Strasburg, Dickey and Gallardo so I opted to go with young arms with plenty of impact potential for 2013.
I was without a third baseman until the 14th round when I selected Will Middlebrooks. Middlebrookes was impressive in the 75 games he played for the Boston Red Sox in 2012 and he will be the teams starting third baseman with the departure of Kevin Youkillis to the New York Yankees. My next pick was made because a) I think he’s gonna be awesome and b) Someone was going to be pissed with the pick. Adam Eaton was my 15th pick and the first reserve player on my roster (depending he will likely replace Bourne as my 3rd OF). This pick got some noise and chirping from the gallery, especially from those who anticipated having a shot at Eaton in the 15 or 16th round. As one player stated…”that’s your 4th outfielder”…that just made me smile a bit more.
Now at this point my roster was filling up nicely and I had 8 reserve spots, 1 catcher and 1 starting pitcher to draft. In reviewing what I had left to pick and who was left on the board, I determined that I wouldn’t draft a catcher until nearly the end of the draft. By this point a good number of catchers had been drafted (often at what I considered a reach), so what was left were prospects and/or 4th tier catchers. Since catching is the least productive offensive position, a 4th tier catcher will produce about 100 points less then a 3rd tier and 150 points less than a 2nd tier. I’d rather find a hot hitting catcher on the waiver wire than use a high draft pick to pick one up. With my 16th pick, I finished off my starting rotation by taking Gerrit Cole of the Pittsburgh Pirates to complement Cobb in my rotation. With my 17th pick, I snuck super-utility player Matt Carpenter onto my roster. Another player in the league loves multi-position eligible players so I was surprised Carpenter was still around, given that he will also be eligible at second base (in addition to 1B, 3B and OF).
The rest of the draft was a matter of taking reserve players that I wanted. My first target was to add another closer (or potential closer) by drafting Japanese sensation Kyuji Fujikawa from the Chicago Cubs. I followed that up by taking Ubaldo Jiminez, who I hope improves in his second full season with the Indians. I found another discounted player in Jayson Werth with my 20th pick and used my 21st pick to pick up potential breakout candidate Manny Machado from the Baltimore Orioles. Dominique Brown, was taken with the 22nd giving me another potential breakout player in the OF. I finally took a catcher in Francisco Cervelli from the New York Yankees in the 23rd round. I closed out the draft by selecting James MacDonald (don’t ask me how he lasted that long) and Sean Doolittle. MacDonald had a great start to the 2012 season and I’m hoping his 2013 season starts the same way. With Grant Belfour looking like he might start the season on the disabled list, Doolittle gives me another option at RP as a potential closer.
Overall, I am extremely happy with my roster. I am also satisified that I got to execute my first three round strategy as I had intended. I will probably make an effort to obtain Yu Darvish, but the player who owns him and I sometimes don’t see eye to eye on the value of players. I think I have put together a very good team and one that should be able to contend for the title this season.
Chase Headley will be missing April due to a fractured thumb. This increased will probably increase the value of prospect Jedd Gyorko who the San Diago Padres were transitionning to second base. As anticipated prospects Anthony Rendon (Washington Nationals) and Wil Myers (Tampa Bay) will start this season in the minors. If you got deep benches stash these guys away and wait for their call up.
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photo credit: Scott Ableman via photopin cc
