On Sunday evening, Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll named Russell Wilson the winner of the starting quarterback competition. The announcement is only slightly more surprising than his admission prior to the start of training camp that the Seahawks quarterback race would in fact be a three-way competition between Wilson, newly signed free agent Matt Flynn and incumbent starter Tarvaris Jackson. The decision to anoint Wilson means he will be one of five rookies to earn the starting QB job for his team this season. But unlike the other four whose teams mostly carry low expectations into the 2012 season, Wilson will take over a squad that is primed to make a run at the division crown if they can get solid quarterback play.
This will put Wilson and Carroll under pressure to produce results almost immediately. Such a shocking move needs to be dissected from the beginning to see if it is really the right move for the Seahawks.Back in January, Russell Wilson declared for the NFL Draft and every team in the NFL was certainly well aware of the fact. Despite this knowledge the Seahawks choose to pursue free agent quarterback Matt Flynn, formerly of the Green Bay Packers. The Seahawks made no small commitment to Flynn guaranteeing $10 million of his $26 million total contract. This type of commitment is not given to a player expected to sit on the bench.
By the time Flynn signed his contract in March of 2012 the draft hype for all prospects had already begun and the quarterback picture was beginning to become clearer. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III had become the unanimous top choices, Ryan Tannehill was receiving increasing hype and it was speculated some team would move to draft him early in the first round. Beyond those three, only Brandon Weeden was projected to have a chance of getting drafted on day one. Unless something completely unexpected happened, Russell Wilson was going to fall until at least the second day of the draft.
With the Seahawks still owning each of their first three round picks if they really desired to have Wilson they must have known they would be able to select him, yet they still choose to make a large financial commitment to Matt Flynn. When draft day finally came the Seahawks passed on Wilson until the 3rd round. Some might say this is simply getting good value by not reaching to draft a player, and to a certain extent this is true. But Seattle already proved in the first round that they were willing to go “off the board” by selecting undersized defensive end Bruce Irvin, who very few had going in the first round at all. If Seattle had thought that Wilson had what it takes to take over their starting quarterback position than they would have drafted him earlier, as highlighted with Irvin. If there is a franchise QB available you don’t let him slip into the 3rd round and risk someone else scooping him up. It is like what Bill Belichick has said about Brady; if the Patriots knew he was as good as he was, they wouldn’t have waited until the 6th round to draft him.
My point is that if the Seahawks were aware of the skills that Wilson was bringing to the table from the beginning then they would have taken a different approach to the offseason and certainly would have pursued Wilson more actively in the draft. Certainly we can’t know all that went on during Seahawks training camp, but some emphasis for this decision must have been placed on each player’s preseason performance. That said, placing too much emphasis on the preseason can be dangerous. As Micheal Lombardi at NFL.com has pointed out, the best looking young quarterback in last year’s preseason was Colt McCoy, while Cam Newton looked absolutely terrible – we know how that ended. The preseason results were part of what fueled the speculating that Newton would be a huge bust. When the season started Newton was a star and McCoy no longer has his starting job.
Can we overlook Wilson’s low pre-draft grade and trust Pete Carrol’s evaluation in this case? Based on Carrol’s recent track record I am not entirely sure we can. When Carrol first arrived in Seattle in 2010 one of his first moves was to trade a third-round pick to San Diego to acquire Charlie Whitehurst. Whitehurst was brought in to be the starter of the future in Seattle despite never starting a single game in San Diego. Whitehurst failed to impress during the 2010 season and the Seahawks were left searching for another option.
This led them to sign Tarvaris Jackson away from the Minnesota Vikings. Despite playing with superior talent in Minnesota, Jackson was inadequate in five seasons with the team. Tarvaris started 15 games for the Seahawks in 2011 which was enough to prove to the folks in Seattle what everyone outside the organization already knew; Tarvaris Jackson is not starting QB material.
These two failed quarterback projects, which Carroll was quick to give up on, will cast doubt on his latest maneuver.
If we can’t completely trust Carrol’s judgment maybe we can find some answers in the tape?
In digging for answers I watched Seattle’s week two and three preseason contests against the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs respectively. When watching the tape the thing that jumped out at me right away is not the quarterbacks at all but the Seahawks wide receivers (see: Footnote). They simply do not get any separation at all. Whether it was Sidney Rice (limited action), Braylon Edwards, or Golden Tate no one was able to pull away from coverage when locked up man to man, this made evaluating the quarterbacks extremely difficult. Actually, in my Seahawks analysis from last month I noted the weakness at wide receiver, and the preseason has failed to sway my opinion.
I watched every snap for Flynn and Wilson, the only real contenders for the starting gig. Flynn only saw action in the first half of the Broncos game and nothing against KC. He ended the half with a mere 31 passing yards but when watching him play I never felt he was doing especially poorly. There were many times when he would patiently scan the field before finally delivering the ball to a covered receiver only to have his pass broken up – the receivers were certainly not helping the situation. I don’t want to judge Flynn on two quarters of preseason play, but he did fail to consistently do anything that would stand out in a positive way.
When Wilson took over at QB the same issues of separation continued but Wilson seemed to show more of a willingness to try to fit the balls into tight spots, especially down the field. Wilson’s arm strength is something that is immediately apparent when watching him. His release is effortless, and the ball gets down the field in a hurry. Because of his arm strength he does not need to take a big step into his throws like some QB’s to get power on them, this gives him a quick release, and it makes him especially effective on deep play action passes where he can quickly turn and deliver the ball. When throwing the dreaded out route he displayed no lack of power and was able to connect with his receivers several times on these plays in the KC game. When there were no receivers to throw to Wilson possesses an elite ability to escape the pocket and make plays with his feet. On one such instance the Chiefs brought a 6-man pressure, but all the rushers came from the edge and nothing up the middle so Russell calmly ran in behind his center and was able to pick up an easy 30-yard gain. He used his head as much as his feet. Beyond his tangible qualities nothing about Wilson reminded me of a rookie. His reads were always quick, and plenty of times he would deliver the ball down field immediately after the snap, having already diagnosed the coverage. He also trusts his arm and trusts his instincts so he doesn’t get caught holding onto the ball too long in the pocket.
After reviewing all 5 quarters Wilson played the biggest thing that jumped out to me was that he didn’t make a single glaring mistake in all his throws. Not once did he appear to misread a coverage, or throw into double coverage, or make the rookie mistake of throwing the ball downfield to avoid a sack. I thought this was truly remarkable for a rookie quarterback. Now comes the big one – he is deadly accurate on all levels. This is the quality that really separates college QB’s from those who make it in the Pros. I only counted five inaccurate throws in both games combined. One was a badly thrown ball behind his receiver on a down field “in” route that went incomplete, while the other four were all deep shots which sailed too long, grazing off his receivers finger tips. The latter four were not terrible throws because in each case his receiver was behind the defense and the ball was put in a spot where only his guy could make a play. That is what you want a quarterback to do – if you miss, make sure only your guy has a play.
In comparison with Flynn, Wilson appeared to be just as poised and adept a cycling through his receiving progressions. His arm was easily stronger the Flynn’s and he showed more of a willingness to cut it loose, and Wilson’s superior athleticism was clearly evident. The proof was in the results. Russel led six scoring drives on seven tries against the Chiefs, with the lone failure coming on a missed field goal. A week earlier against the Broncos, Wilson engineered three TD drives in the second half after Flynn failed to move the offense at all in the first.
I caution reading too much into those statistics though, especially in the KC game, as they make Wilson look a lot more impressive than he was. The fact they scored on six of Wilson’s seven drives doesn’t tell the whole story. The Seahawks had more rushing yards than passing yards against the Chiefs and the running game was a big part of the success Wilson and the offense has. KC also extended a drive when called for a tacky foul by the replacement refs. And that stat also doesn’t highlight one struggle Wilson did have. On 3rd and 5 or more, Wilson and the offense only converted one out of seven tries (I’m not counting the flag that eliminated one failure). Each of the first three drives for Wilson ended when Seattle faced a 3rd and long and the Chiefs brought pressure. In each case Wilson was either forced to get rid of the ball early or take a sack. Their lone success on 3rd and long came on a dump off that turned into a big gain after a missed tackle. The whole offense deserves blame for these plays; the line blocked poorly when facing overload pressure and the receivers getting no separation does not make it easy on the QB either. Either way it was clear when KC knew the Seahawks had to pass they had an answer for it. This is an area that is tough for a rookie QB and one that Seattle will have to execute much better in during the season.
Two of the three scoring drives Wilson lead were aided by a long TD run and a busted coverage leaving a wide receiver open in the endzone, too. But I am picking nits here. Overall Wilson played extremely well and was the leader of the offense. He wasn’t perfect, but we really can’t expect that anytime soon (or ever). His 50 college starts have clearly prepared him well for the NFL and he has all the tools required to succeed. It is easy to see what the Seahawks have fallen in love with.
After watching the tape I believe that Wilson was given the starting position because the Seahawks’ feel he has truly earned it, not because of any injury Flynn has sustained (he did not play in the 3rd preseason game because of elbow soreness). I think that Carroll and the Seahawks simply did not totally understand the caliber of talent they were getting when they drafted Wilson.
The decision to start Wilson is a bold move. The NFC west is not a powerhouse division. With Seattle’s strong defense and run first offense they have what it takes to compete with San Francisco at the top of the division. Last season they were competitive with Tarvaris Jackson, but this season they need to receive superior quarterback play in order to take the next step. Credit Carroll for having the courage to make this decision even though he knows he will be widely criticized if it fails.
Our preseason sneak peek suggests that it won’t.
Footnote – Actually the first thing that stands out when watching Seattle is Earl Thomas. The guy is a machine. He seems to always be around the football no matter what the play is, which conjures up images of Troy Polamalu. Thomas is legit. I know quality safety play is often considered a luxury in the NFL but the hallmark of defenses that go beyond being merely good and achieve consistent greatness is usually great safety play. With Seattle’s very stout front seven and Thomas on the backend we could be looking an emerging defense ready to take the NFL by storm, starting right now.
Feel free to add your comments below.
