Everyone saw what happened. The Colts went from a 10-6 team that hadn’t missed the playoffs in 9 seasons to a 2-14 squad that had to pick up some garbage wins down the stretch just to avoid the dreaded 0-16. Was it all Peyton? Well, yeah, it kind of was.
It wasn’t the fact that they went from an all-star quarterback to a league-average quarterback. It was the fact that they went from one of the all-time best quarterbacks to a league-worst echelon quarterback. That change alone was enough to knock the franchise off their AFC South pedestal and cause management to throw their team into rebuilding mode when they realized just how poor they were.
It needs to be stated that this Colts team was already in decline. They were not the Super Bowl team of 2006, or the 14-2 squad of 2009. In 2010 some of the Colts’ flaws started to show. They started the season only 8-6 and had to win their last 4 to get in the playoffs where they promptly lost at home to the Jets. This was not a case of going first to worst because of one player. But if Manning was healthy it is exceedingly likely the Colts would have battled the Texans down to the wire for the AFC South crown.
When has another player that can change a team so dramatically with his absence ever hit the free agent market? Wherever Manning decides to sign there is no telling just how good he will instantly make that team. Would Tampa Bay suddenly make the post-season? Would the Bills end a 12 year playoff drought just like that? Would Manning put the Jets over the top? I don’t know, but anything is possible with this guy.
Manning is such a force that I think nearly everybody in the league should be after his talents. Manning gives any team a legitimate shot at winning a championship and that is all that matters. When you see that chance, you have to take it. That’s why I think nearly every team in the league should be after him. Let’s play a game. Let’s pretend that every team is interested. How would Manning finally decide where he wants to play?
Ladies and gentlemen, are you ready to play “Guess Who”, Manning-style?
Question 1. Did your team just release me, a player they must believe is the best player of all-time?
That’s you Colts. What are these guys thinking? This is Peyton Manning. Their franchise was nothing before they got him. Last season he signed a big contract and wanted to finish his career as a Colt. I can’t believe that Indy would make a financial decision to get rid of him. Even if they want to rebuild, even if they really believe in Andrew Luck. Peyton Manning should have always been a Colt and it is ridiculous this franchise thinks they will be okay while moving forward.
There are a few positions in sports where players can continue to play very late into their careers. We have seen some hockey players play into their 40’s. We also just witnessed Chris Chelios, an all-star defenseman, attempt to play until the age of 50. Many pitchers in baseball extend their careers into their 40’s now, too. NFL quarterback in one position where you can keep performing well past your prime. We have seen Dan Marino start until the age of 38. Brett Favre just retired after playing a season at the age of 41. Warren Moon and Vinny Testaverde were in the league until the age of 44, Moon even started games at the age of 42. These are all athletes that began their careers in the 80’s for the most part. Peyton Manning began his career nearly 20 years later. He is one of the best ever at his position, and aside from his recent injury he is one of the most durable players ever.
What if he signs a 5 year contract and when he gets to the end of it he decides he wants to keep playing? Athletes in the last 15-20 years have enjoyed every advantage possible to keep their bodies in great shape. Pretty soon the 2000-era professional athletes will be turning 40. Maybe they will realize that they don’t feel a lot different than when they were 37 and they can keep going for many more years. The Colts are giving up on all of this just because they need to rebuild. Good Luck (no pun intended). 31 teams left.
Question 2. Does your team already have an elite QB?
Goodbye New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Green Bay, New Orleans, Carolina and the Giants. For the record these are the only 7 teams I give a pass to for not pursuing Peyton with everything they have. Even San Diego I am on the fence with, but there is no way AJ Smith would target Peyton after Eli spurned him in the 2004 draft. Yes I think AJ Smith is the type of guy who would intentionally make his team worse over a personal grievance. 24 teams left.
Question 3. Are you already committed to a player you think is an elite QB?
Philly, Dallas, Chicago, Detroit and the Jets. It is tough to blame these teams I guess, but remember only one of these teams made the playoffs last season – as a 6th seed. For the record I think the Jets really wanted Manning (like Washington) but they learned early on they really weren’t in the running. 19 teams left.
Question 4. Does your team play in the NFC East or AFC South?
Tony Dungy said he doesn’t believe Peyton would sign with a team that would make him compete directly with his brother for a playoff spot, and Manning himself said he will always be a Colt (and meant it). I can’t see him signing in either of these divisions, call this the “conflict of interest” question. Even if this wasn’t the case is there really any chance he would sign with the Redskins as was widely reported? They have no pieces on offense for Manning to get excited about. I think he cares about his numbers too much to do that to himself. I really thought Houston could be a player in this race though in spite of their division. If they landed Manning then Washington seemed like a possible trading partner for current QB Matt Schaub. But the Redskins pulling off the big trade with the Rams changes all that. This leaves us with 15 teams left.
Question 4. Is your franchise way too dysfunctional / far away from a championship for me to even consider?
This is a fun list. Buffalo, Oakland, Cleveland, Cincy, Minnesota, St. Louis and Tampa can all count themselves out of the race before it even begins. We’re down to the Elite 8.
Question 5. Can I picture myself playing in your style of offense?
We are getting down to the tough cuts now. Baltimore and San Fran have not shown much interest. Even if they do I don’t know if I can picture Manning playing in those offenses. They are both run-oriented teams that have significant investments on the defensive side of the ball. San Fran especially does not appear to have any wide receiving options for Manning to work with and they would have to agree to bring someone else in to entice Manning to sign. KC and Seattle also need to be crossed off the list. They are reportedly pursuing Peyton but I don’t see them having what it takes to get a deal done. KC is more interesting because they have Jamaal Charles returning and can team Peyton with Dwayne Bowe and second year receiver Jonathan Baldwin, but I think there are better options available to Manning and I’m sure he would like to avoid the KC snow storms if he could. Final Four. Denver, Miami, Arizona and our surprise 16-seed making it all the way to the big dance, Atlanta.
Is your team currently pursing me?
The Falcons decided last offseason that they needed to be more explosive on offense and committed several draft picks to acquire Julio Jones. Jones was a good player but not much changed for the Falcons offense, and once they got to the playoff the results we’re the same as in the past. Manning is an instant solution to make their team more explosive, and if you team him with Jones and Pro Bowl receiver Roddy White then Atlanta might have the most unstoppable offense in the league. Throw in the fact that Atlanta is a warm weather city, they play in a dome, they have an established GM/coach and they are already a perennial playoff threat with an improving young defense and there is really nothing for Manning not to like about the Falcons. So the hold-up obviously is that Atlanta already has Matt Ryan. This was already going to be decision time for the Falcons regarding Matt Ryan because his rookie contract expires soon. The Falcons have to decide to make a huge financial investment in Ryan or lose him. In most situations they would be forced to re-sign Ryan because he is a good quarterback and even if they might not totally believe he can win them a Super Bowl they know he is better than the other available options. Not this time. The other available option is staring them right in the face. If they get Manning they can turn around and trade Ryan to a number of teams with QB needs and likely get a first round pick in return. Or they could even keep Ryan as insurance incase the Manning plan does not work. Either way this is one team I am surprised has decided to sit this race out. Cross Atlanta off.
Is your owner completely insane?
Miami seems to be the popular top choice for Manning to land. I just don’t see it. Manning more than anything wants to land with a stable franchise that he believes will be able to build a winning team around him. I believe these factors far outweigh what division he plays in or what the weather will be like at kick-off in December. Manning knew his release was coming and has certainly done his research on every team he felt would show interest in him. When he is done his homework is he going to believe the Miami owner and management have what it takes to build a winner around him? No way. Stephen Ross hasn’t pleased many Dolphins fans since he took over the organization, and in his dealings with the media and meddling with the franchise he has to remind many people of another owner; Dan Snyder. Manning doesn’t want any part of this, there are better options out there. Remember when Eli refused to go to the Chargers in the 2004 draft because he did not like the direction of the franchise? Don’t think this is not the top priority on Manning’s list. Beyond the ownership Miami is not in great football shape right now either. They are the 3rd string team in their division and they are in between coaches. Even if Miami were to sign Manning they would still be behind New England in their division likely forcing them to fight for a Wild Card spot. Not a situation Manning wants to be a part of. Miami is sunk.
Can I really see myself wearing your jersey?
I really didn’t expect the Broncos to be this involved in the race. Like KC I thought there would be some attractiveness about signing in Denver but the weather and offense would eventually lead him to go in another direction. But Elway has been doing his best to make his magic happen one last time and they also have a very solid coach in John Fox that can only help the situation. It is interesting that it appears San Fran has mostly stood on the sidelines in this chase because the have professed their support for Alex Smith and they preached a team first message all season long. They are afraid how a Manning chase would impact the locker room and distort their message. The Broncos locker room rallied around the unique talents of Tim Tebow last year and he lead them to a playoff spot, and a playoff victory, in his first season as a starter. It will be interesting to see how this pursuit impacts the Broncos team dynamic in the upcoming season, especially considering the fact they aren’t going to land Manning. Goodbye, Broncos.
Are you Arizona?
Unless the Falcons jump into the race than Peyton Manning is going to be an Arizona Cardinal. I know they paid a steep price to acquire Kevin Kolb last season but he failed to impress in the limited time he had to prove himself. The Cardinals are being smart and not letting their earlier commitment to Kolb stand in their way. There is plenty for Manning to like about the Cardinals. It all starts with Larry Fitzgerald. What quarterback wouldn’t want to play with him? Manning can look back to the success Kurt Warner had playing with Fitzgerald and envision the same thing for himself. He can even look to the Tom Brady – Randy Moss hook-up and start dreaming big about launching 80 yard TD passes to Fitzgerald. The Cardinals also have a very secure head coach with Ken Whinsenhunt. Whinsenhunt and his team have done a good job turning around the Cardinals franchise and I think this will be a big factor in Manning’s decision. The division they play in will be a factor too. It is well known the NFC West is the worst division in football. With the emergence of San Fran and some of the moves the Seahawks and Rams have made recently that may be changing. But none of these moves can compete with landing Peyton Manning, who will instantly vault the Cardinals into playoff competition with the 49ers next season and leave the other teams scrambling. When you factor in the Cardinals brand new dome stadium, the fast field they play on and the beautiful weather in Arizona you can see why Arizona has to be the front-runner. Now here is the hammer. I know the Cardinals don’t have the most cap room available, but they can release Kolb with little financial ramifications. Also, beyond Larry Fitzgerald at one receiver spot the Card’s don’t have many positions on offense they wouldn’t be willing to replace. See where I am going with this? Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Jeff Saturday. If the Cards need a little extra help convincing Manning to sign they can throw one of these names on the table. Maybe they can’t get them all. But landing Jeff Saturday could not be that tough, and Dallas Clark would be worth much more to the Cardinals than any other franchise.
Whatever happens the other 3 teams in the division Manning signs with will immediately have to re-evaluate their playoff chances and the way they scheme on defense. And if Manning stays healthy for a full season it should be interesting to re-visit this situation at this time next year and make fun of all the teams who thought they would be better off not going after Peyton Manning.
…and that is the last word.
