January 2012 - Page 4 of 5 - Last Word On Sports

Money Line Weekend – Saturday Afternoon Edition

Posted on January 14, 2012 by Ben Kerr

I am going to ruin all the suspense early so I might as well do it now. Every favorite is going to win this weekend, because that’s the only way it can happen. That’s what makes this money line weekend. Some of the spreads are damn near perfect and tough to bet on but that doesn’t have to stop you from grabbing the ML on the favorite.

Why are all the favorites going to win? Because it has been setting up that way since the very first day of the NFL season. From the time the NFL announced that there would be a shortened training camp every team with a veteran roster with little turnover was granted a competitive advantage, and the four teams that were the best teams all season will be the four teams that will face off in the league championship games. The Packers return most of the team that won last years Super Bowl. The Patriots and Saints return the core of teams that 14-2 last year and won the Super Bowl two years ago respectively. The Ravens are always in a struggle with the Steelers for top team in their division but grabbed the torch early this year when they owned the Steelers in week 1 and never looked back. I wrote about this last week, I followed the theory in my picks and it didn’t steer me wrong. I see no reason to change now. Not only were these the four best teams all season (you could argue the 49ers were rated higher than the Saints early in the year but no one truly believe they were as good as they were until their week 10 victory over the Giants, and then they got demolished two weeks later against the Ravens), but besides being the best, three of the teams have one other advantage. They have the three best QB’s in the league, in what happens to be the year of the QB. I would call that somewhat of an advantage. Not just because they are the best, but because they are far and away the best. The fourth team? Well they are the only team in the league to have a top defense nearly every year for the last 13 seasons. Read that again, 13 seasons! It is unusual to have a run of more than 3 years of top of the line defense. Baltimore has kept it going for 13. If there is one team without an elite QB that deserves to be in this all-star final four it may be Baltimore.

Is this anti-climatic? I don’t think so. As fans we should be delighted, the quality of play next week should be downright exceptional. So how do I get you to read the picks after that? Well the spreads are a whole different story…

NEW ORLEANS -3.5 @ SAN FRANCISCO – 4:30 Saturday

The Saturday games are absolutely ridiculous, and we start the weekend off with by far the closest match-up off the weekend. I buy their arguments but what about the fact that the Saints have been an absolute tank since their bye week? What about the fact that Drew Brees at this moment is playing better than anyone else in the league? Teams change throughout the season. What a team is in week one is almost certainly no what that team is in week 15, or even week 12 or week 8. The Saints had an embarrassing loss in St. Louis in week 8. Sean Payton knew the loss was embarrassing and it caused him to re-evaluate his team. Since that loss the Saints have been tougher and more ruthless.

Everyone making a case for the 49ers say the same thing about the Saints. They are unstoppable at home, but when you get them outside on the grass they just aren’t the same team. Is this true? No doubt New Orleans is a fast break offense that flourishes in the dome, but I hardly think they struggle when they are outside. Let’s examine some of their individual road games.

Three times this season they score 30 or more points on the road, they went 2-1: Week 1 @ Green Bay (loss), Week 5 @ Carolina (Win), Week 15 @ Minnesota (Win). I don’t think there is much to talk about here, they lost to Green Bay but you would hardly say the grass slowed down their offense. Carolina and Minnesota have two of the worst defenses in the league and the Saints get no props for scoring on them.

Two other times they lost on the road this season (Saints were undefeated at home): Week 6 20-26 @ Tampa, Week 8 21-31 @ St. Louis. Tampa really fell apart at the end of the year. But early in the year when they still had hope they played some quality games against their division opponents, as they tend to do. Not only did they knock off the Saints but the Falcons too. This is also the game in which Sean Payton suffered his sideline injury and New Orleans struggled from that point on. The St.Louis game is a no excuses game. They lost to an inferior team. No way to defend it. But this was probably the turning point of the Saints season – since this game they have 9 straight victories.

That leaves three games left to take a closer look at:

Week 4 @ Jacksonville 24-10 win – This might not seem like an impressive game but remember that Jacksonville had one of the top defenses in the league this year, especially early in the season. The week before this game they held Carolina to 16 points (in a rain storm) but also had a four point loss to Pittsburgh and an upset win over the Ravens due to their tough defense following this game. New Orleans actually moved the ball easily on the Jacksonville defense. They led off the game with back to back TD drives. New Orleans never found the end zone again after that. Jacksonville surrendered yards but forced 5 field goal attempts, New Orleans converted only 3. Brees also kicked in 2 INT’s. Because the Jaguars were able to hold New Orleans to Field Goal attempts the game remained close. But I would hardly say the Saints offense was sputtering. They were playing one of the top defenses in he league and they were only forced to punt once all game (sound similar to any recent Saints game you remember?).

Week 10 @ Atlanta 26-23 OT win – This was the game Mike Smith the Atlanta head coach decided to go for it on 4th and 1 in his own territory in OT. When the Falcons failed to pick it up they handed the Saints the win. Before that they game was very close at OT would indicate. The Falcons shut down the New Orleans run and were able to force 5 field goal trys just like the Jacksonville game, this time the Saints missed 1. There was a close hard-hitting division game and this game might play out closest to what we will see this Saturday against the 49ers.

Week 14 @ Tennessee 22-17 win – The Saints were held in check in this one but don’t forget that this was the first game the Saints played after losing Mark Ingram for the season and they hadn’t quite turned over the main rushing duties to Pierre Thomas at that point yet. Since, they have been rolling on the ground again – finishing second only to Carolina in running efficiency. Also, while the Saints were down 10-9 entering the 4th quarter each of their first three drives that resulted in Field Goals saw the Saints drive to atleast the 11 yard line before settling. Brees also went 36 for 47 passing for 323 yards – and he got the two TD’s he needed to win the game in the end. So the Saints were hardly shut down.

In each of these 3 games Drew Brees was able to throw for over 300 yards. The offense moved the ball up and down the field, but the reason the Saints failed to score 30 was due to turnovers and the defenses ability to force Field Goals. This may be the best the defense can hope for against the Saints. This is certainly the strategy the 49ers must hope for. If they can force Field Goals the game will always be within striking distance. While these games prove the Saints can be limited on the road I hardly think you can point to the road as a shut down factor for them.

Now that we have put the road worries to rest what other trends are emerging for this game? The Saints never faced one of the top three defenses this season but they did face some good defenses, mostly early in the season, and this may account for why their offense seemed to gain steam near the end of the year. They faced the defenses ranked 4-5-6-8 and 9th. In order: The beat Jacksonville (covered this), they handled 4th ranked Chicago easily at home dropping 30. They faced 5th ranked Atlanta twice and beat them both times. Eighth ranked Houston got tuned for a 40 burger, and we saw what just happened to 9th ranked Detroit. Also they beat down the Giants hanging 49 points on them. I think this is important because this is the 3rd team they faced who on defense try to control the game with their Dline – because the Dline has the ability to dominate their D has some success even if their coverage is not great in the back-end. You could say this for Houston and you could certainly say this for Detroit and New York. In each case the result was a beat down, even if each of these games was played in the Super Dome. You cannot beat Drew Brees with just Dline pressure. He is too quick with his decisions and release, and he doesn’t mind converting on 3rd and long yardage if you do happen to get a sack. You need great coverage on his receivers too or else the Dline pressure will not amount too much. I mention this because I see San Fran as a team that has had success this year by dominating the line of scrimmage on defense, while covering up for some less than great coverage in the back-end.

On the flip side, what kind of offenses, and more importantly Quarterbacks has San Fran been forced to face? When they played Ben Roethlisberger he was injured so we will toss that game aside. The rest of the games against quality QB’s tended to come early in the season like New Orleans games, with only one exception. In week two San Fran faced Tony Romo, they were able to knock him out of the game but when he returned he shredded the San Fran D and gained an 27-24 OT victory. Two weeks later they faced Micheal Vick and got down big early giving up 23 points.. But the D rallied and didn’t give up a point late leading to a dramatic 24-23 comeback victory. Two weeks after that San Fran travelled to Detroit and were able to contain the Detroit passing attack and escape with a 25-19 victory. At midseason they beat the Giants 27-20. Manning was able to drive the Giants down to the end zone late but San Fran ended the contest with an interception. Outside of those games the majority of the San Fran opponents came from the NFC West or the AFC North so you do the math on the quarterbacks they faced. As I stated earlier, my suspicion with the San Fran D is that their dominating Dline had hidden some average coverage in the secondary. And I do expect the Dline to be a factor on Saturday, but I don’t know if that alone is enough to stop Brees.

San Fran started the year extremely hot on defense and finished third overall behind only the Ravens and Jets. But in weighted defense they finished only 6th despite some weak offensive competition. In their last 6 games San Fran is 4-2. They beat down St. Louis twice, narrowly escaped with a road victory over Seattle, lost a close road game in Arizona, beat down an injured Steelers team at home and saw their offense evaporate in a loss in Baltimore. Hardly a murderers row. The Saints on the other hand have been virtually unstoppable in the last 9 weeks. Drew Brees is playing at such a high level that I don’t know if it matters if he is at home or on the road anymore.

All this analysis is nice and all but picking this game really comes down to one question for me. I know we haven’t talked about him yet but he looms over everything in this game, the question: Can you comfortably take Alex Smith in a playoff game against the hottest QB in the league knowing you are only getting 3.5 points?

My answer is no. We have years and years of evidence with Alex Smith. Now he is supposed to win the biggest game of his life while staring across the field at Drew Brees? I don’t buy it. I also think he was aided a lot this year by one factor, he was always playing on the tougher team. Jim Harbuagh has done a phenomenal job with the 49ers, going into every game it seemed like his team was a) much tougher than the other team and b) had the better coach. Unfortunately this weekend he is playing one of the other elite coaches in the league, and there is no doubt he has one of the toughest teams in the league too. The 49ers are good, but not good enough to pull away from the Saints. So when this game gets down to the 4th quarter and the game is still close and both teams know what the other team is trying to do who is going to line up and out execute the other team? Drew Brees will.

(Two conflicting bonus notes I have no idea what to do with: 1) Huey Lewis and the News is singing the national anthem to open up this game, how does San Fran lose with Huey Lewis and the News? 2) Alex Smith apparently gets a 1 Million dollar bonus if he wins this game. This makes me want to go against him with everything I have, I don’t know if Alex smith could be Alabama for a million bucks. I am going to call these factors a wash and stick with my original prediction.)

New Orleans 31 San Fran 17

They Are Who We Thought They Were: Raptors in 60 seconds or less…

Posted on January 12, 2012March 20, 2017 by Skip McGee

A few weeks down and the Raptors are exactly the team I thought they would be – showing little signs of improvement. At 4 wins and 7 losses, the current Raptors are barely watchable. I won’t write a long drawn out article on the positives and negatives. Rather, I’ll give you three things that piss me off about this team in 60 seconds or less.

“This is not a democracy on offence”: The first few weeks I’ve noted that Andrea looked hesitant with the ball. When he is hot, the Raptors role players (garbage) continue to forget about him. Guys like Anthony Carter, James Johnson, and even Leandro Barbosa are taking shots that should be passed to Andrea (or DeRozan). Casey has said the team’s offence is not a democracy, but that hasn’t proven true in crunch time. If Andrea is going to be successful and take the next step to elite status, he needs to become more aggressive in the fourth quarter. Does he warrant votes on all-star ballots? Perhaps, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t under-achieving – still!

Is DeRozan taking a step backward? So far this season I don’t like what I am seeing from Double D. Casey is trying to get him to become the defensive stopper but I see it negatively affecting his game. That said, I’ll acknowledge that we’re only eleven losses into the season and he’s playing for a new coach. My expectations are for him to hit the 20/8 level this season, which may be too lofty. At this point he is averaging one fewer FGA per game and with increased minutes over the last two his FG% has suffered thus far.

Johnson the new “Junk Yard Dog”: Granted, the guy shows a lot of hustle with some numbers to prove it. Unfortunately he’s getting carried away and taking far too many AWFUL shots. If Casey can get him to tone down his game and focus on being a hustle/steals/boards/lay-ups kinda guy he has a future with this team. Please, Raptor Nation; don’t develop blind love for a hustle guy that on most teams would be on the IR.

Through the first week couple weeks of the season the Raptors managed to win their home opener against the worst team in the NBA, followed by three consecutive losses. Since then it very much has looked the same – a victory followed by a few losses. Despite some decent play, the Raptors don’t have the guns to stick with even the mid-ranked teams in the league. While the future in 2012/2013 is bright(ish), watch the current Raptors games at your own risk depending on your tolerance level. Watching the games may cost you a new TV after you throw your converter through it, or worse, a night in jail after your neighbours call the police from listening to you scream loud enough to make them think you’re having a domestic dispute.

and that is the last word…

Is Phaneuf the Most Over-rated NHL Player?

Posted on January 12, 2012November 4, 2021 by Carl Mostacci

Sports Illustrated polled 160 NHL players, asking each who is the league’s most over-rated player. Most players picked Toronto Maple Leaf Captain Dion Phaneuf.

Who do you think is the NHL’s most over-rated player? Have your say here.

…and that is the last word.

NFL Wild Card Thoughts and Ramblings

Posted on January 11, 2012November 4, 2021 by Ben Kerr

I loved everything about Wild Card weekend. I loved watching Drew Brees dominate the Lions with complete control of nearly every play. I loved the way the Lions fought hard to keep the game close and didn’t seem to be affected by the Superdome. Detroit did unravel in the end because the Saints kept the pressure on them with their offense. But Detroit proved that as long as Calvin Johnson and Matt Stafford are on the field they will be a challenge for any team to stop. While New Orleans proved you will need to be nearly perfect to beat them. I loved how Marvin Lewis made everyone who picked the Bengals instantly regret their decision with that awful challenge almost exactly one hour into the game. The game was close at that point but did anyone really believe the Bengals were going to pull it out after that display, along with the second horrendous challenge before the half was out? Coaches do matter and picking Marvin Lewis on the road in the playoffs is never wise.

I loved how Atlanta definitively proved they are not on the level of the top teams in the NFC and they must make drastic changes if their want to seriously contend for a Super Bowl. I also loved how the Giants played just well enough to make everyone pause and say “maybe there is a chance they can hang with Green Bay next weekend.” It will be an interesting game. Most of all I loved how Tim Tebow took over the Pittsburgh game in and made big plays all day long. I loved this because it is exciting to watch Denver compete week to week and win vastly different ways. I loved it because it I like unconventional players who challenge the rhetoric that odd schemes cannot work in the NFL. Tebow won with passing but it was because of the threat of run his passing was so successful. Those who dismiss Tebow’s style of play are often those demanding that other non-contemporary designs cannot work. I loved it because John Fox succeeded while moving outside of his comfort zone and trying something that just might work, and this might lead to more coaches trying outside of the box ideas in the future. But mostly I loved it because for next year the question has shifted from “What are the Broncos going to do at Quarterback?” to “How are the Broncos going to build their offense around Tim Tebow?” Because there is no choice at QB now, it should not have taken a playoff win but this solidified his position. Tebow is the leader of the Denver Broncos, John Fox and company have to do all they can to surround him with the best players possible to complement his style. What kind of players should they try to get?

I think they have to continue to build the offense and turn it into a strength. They might be tempted to continue to build the defense and try to win more low scoring games with Tebow but I think their offense needs to be tailored to his strengths immediately. The Broncos are not where they need to be on defense but they do have some play-makers already. Von Miller was the second overall pick in the 2011 draft. He has been injured and not quite as effective lately but he is a dynamic pass rusher. He lines up opposite Elvis Dumervil another talented pass rusher. This is on top of two other recent high rounds picks DB – Rahim Moore and LB – Robert Ayers. They also start perennial pro-bowl hopefuls DJ Williams at LB and Champ Baily at CB. With the dynamic pass rush they currently feature everything on defense is made easier. The secondary does not have to cover as long and you do not need great players to look good in coverage. They should add to the defense where they can but the pass rush should allow them to get by no matter who is added. The draft should be used to improve the offense.

Several high picks have already been used recently on the offense. In fact their entire starting Oline has been drafted by the team in the last four years with the exception of guard Chris Kuper. The line has performed well this year and every starter is under 30 so it is doubtful they need to add anyone high in the draft. If left tackle Ryan Clady can return to his pre-injury form the line could really take off. There have also been several picks made at wide receiver. Demaryious Thomas was a first round pick ahead of Tim Tebow in 2010. Shifty WR Eric Decker was also added in through the draft and Eddie Royal although he is now a four-year vet is still only 25. The don’t lack much at receiver now but they could use a speedy deep threat who is able to stretch the field and can make a play on the ball in traffic. If this sounds a lot like Brandon Lloyd then you are right, I don’t understand why they dumped a player with such potential. Outside of this need they should continue to add tall wide receivers and could benefit from adding a massive pure possesion receiver with great hands. Tebow is often inaccurate on short and intermediate throws so having a player like this who can catach anything in his area code could really benefit the team, especially on 3rd downs.

So what are the Broncos lacking? They don’t feature the tight end much in the offense, no tight end caught even 20 passes all season, this needs to be corrected. The top offenses in football all feature dynamic tight ends; Jermichael Finley in Green Bay, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in New England and Jimmy Graham in New Orleans. And for the Broncos the tight end position should be critically important, and they should be looking for more than just one. Having a multiple tight end set with pass catching tight ends allows an offense the ability to pass and run effectively from the same sets. It keeps the defense off-balance, and for the Broncos who will be looking to feature the run it would be a huge advantage. Right now when the Broncos bring the tight ends on the field the defense know’s that only the one WR in the route can hurt them because the TE’s won’t be catching anything deep. If the Broncos can change this then they can spread the field, be more effective in play action and also open up the running game.

It is the running game that needs to be the focus of the Broncos draft. They already have yo
ung wide receivers to grow with Tebow. They need an explosive back who can carry the bulk of the load in the offense. I know the Broncos already have injured high round pick Knowshon Moreno and he had some success this year but I have never been sold on him. He is indecisive and lacks power, I am not sure he is a great fit for all the inside run’s the Broncos feature. However I do think he can have a roll on the team as a 3rd down back because he is a terrific pass catcher. Fortunately for the Broncos running backs often slip down the board on draft day and sometimes they are virtually ignored in the first round. In 2011 only one running back went in the first round, in 2010 and 2009 three each were taken. You also don’t need to take a back in the first round to find a good one. Very good running backs can be had in the later rounds. The Broncos must identify a back who runs with power, who doesn’t mind cutting up field and smashing into the first tackler he sees. This player must also have speed so the Broncos can create big plays on the ground as well.

They should not stop with one back. They should aim to have entire backfield of different style runners who can be called upon in different situations. Think like the Patriots of Saints. The Saints have Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas, Corey Ivory and Darren Sproles. Ingram gets the bulk of the carries (when healthy), Thomas and Corey are straight ahead runners, Sproles is the quick back who can make anyone miss. Because all four can play all four remain fresh all game. This would be another advantage for the Broncos who play in the mile-high air and have been able to wear teams down at home this season. I think it is important for them to find a small explosive player in the mold of Darren Sproles. Having a player like this will add an instant big play element to their offense. The key to finding a player like this is not to find the fastest or most elusive player but to find the elusive player who can also has enough core power to run straight ahead when needed. You’re only move as a runner cannot also be to try to go around the defender. A full set of quick running backs to call upon could make the Broncos running attack deadly and allow the deep ball to open up even more.

I look forward to watching the Broncos search for players to add to their offense. Tebow has been effective this year and has clearly captured the Broncos locker room. I cannot wait to see how effective he can be in an offense with play-makers tailored to his strengths.

Will Slow And Steady Win The Race?

Posted on January 10, 2012November 4, 2021 by Carl Mostacci

The Hamilton Tiger Cats officially introduced George Cortez as their new Head Coach today. Cortez has lots of CFL experience both as an offensive co-ordinator and quarterbacks coach. He has been on four winning Grey Cup teams, all with the Calgary Stampeders. He also has other CFL stops in Ottawa, Saskatchewan and Montreal. The past two seasons he was the quarterbacks coach for the NFL’s Buffalo Bills.

I’m surprised Cortez left the more secure, yet difficult to get into, circle of the NFL coaching ranks. But I’m guessing the Ti-Cat deal was too good to refuse. Plus I’m sure Cortez was looking for a challenge and happy to land his first opportunity to be a head coach. In Hamilton, Cortez will be reunited with quarterback Henry Burris. Both men worked together, winning the 2008 Grey Cup in Calgary when Burris was signal-caller there, and Cortez was the offensive co-ordinator.

The Cats were the last CFL team to hire a head coach for 2012, behind Toronto and Saskatchewan. While I was admittedly becoming quite concerned, I feel they made an excellent coaching hire. They avoided hiring a recycled CFL coach, which many teams have been guilty of in the past. Plus they hired a guy with plenty CFL experience, and chemistry with their newly signed quarterback. Look for both Cortez and Burris to inject some life into a Ticat offensive that had become very bland, boring and predictable under previous offensive coordinators Khari Jones and Mike Gibson.

With former Ti-Cats offensive and defensive coordinators joining the Roughriders, the aforementioned Khari Jones and Corey Chamblin assume the roles of head coach and quarterbacks coach respectively. Cortez will have to fill these voids soon. Look for former Winnipeg Blue Bomber defensive co-ordinator Tim Burke to be a stong candidate to perform the same role in Hamilton. As for the offensive side of the ball, Cortez announced that, “I’m gonna run the offence for the first year for sure”. (courtesy @scratchingpost).

On a side note, Bob O’Billovich was promoted to Vice President of Football Operations. It is also anticipated that Danny McManus will also receive a promotion, but it is only speculation as to what it is. My hope is that Danny Mac assumes the role of quarterbacks coach, learns the offensive schemes expected by Cortez, and takes over that role for 2013.

Even though the Cats took their time hiring their head coach, and had to wait for the Bills season to end officially, in order to do so, they made a great move, and now I’m even more excited for the 2012 CFL season.

What do you think of the Cats coaching hire?

…and that is the last word.

The Rise and Fall of Brock Lesnar

Posted on January 9, 2012March 20, 2017 by Mark Modeski

Very few athletes have made such an impact on their respective sport in such a short period of time as did Brock Lesnar. Some people feel that Brock was good for MMA, while others thought he damaged the creditability of a sport that was (at the time) on the verge of mainstream legitimacy.

Understanding whether Brock was good or bad for the sport first warrants a look back at his record. Brock came into the UFC as a well-known WWE superstar, but very few thought of him as a legitimate contender against any true MMA fighter; people looked past his NCAA wrestling record and only saw the entertainer.

His first fight would go on to define the rest of his career. Yes, he lost the fight – but he fought top division competition, and up until he was submitted, he showed speed and power that was unexpected from the former paper-fighting champ. His next fight against Heath Herring was no less impressive with an opening punch that was heard around the world, and his first victory in the UFC. From there the legend of Lesnar started to grow.

Apparently, this first win warranted a title shot against estranged title holder Randy Couture. Lesnar looked like Oxen in the ring with a goat against Couture, and had little difficulty dispatching Couture. However, it wasn’t until he avenged his victory against Mir and captured the interim championship to unite the UFC HW title that people started to really see him as a legitimate fighter. His defeat of Shane Carwin sealed his position as the top HW in the world. Dana White had his golden boy at the top of the division.

Very few felt that anyone would have a chance at dethroning Lesnar anytime soon, let alone a much smaller HW in Cain Velasquez. Unfortunately, Velasquez put short work to Lesnar and with the loss so went a lot of his mystique. After being out for over a year Lesnar had his chance for redemption against Alistair Overeem – unfortunately, the fight would be Lesnar’s swan song.

the first question is: Was Lesnar’s time in the UFC good or bad for the sport? In my opinion, I think he was good for the sport and I am sad to see him retire (from MMA). Lesnar was a big name prior to coming into the UFC, and he helped to build visibility for the sport at a crucial time in its development.

More importantly, I really do feel that Lesnar put his money where his mouth was and backed up his words in the octagon. While he exits with a 5-3 record, he did fight no less than the top competition in all of his fights. I am sure he could have padded his record by fighting a few cans here or there, but Lesnar would only fight the best. Financially, he had nothing to gain by fighting the best, Dana White let him command the highest salary in the UFC no matter who he fought – but, Lesnar wanted to prove that he truly had the heart of a champion.

I’ll admit that I was furiously against Lesnar coming into the UFC at first, but as I saw him and prove that he was serious about the sport I came around to him. Part of the current state of UFC, and MMA in general, can be credited to the marketing of Lesnar – so, even if you hate his guts to this day, thank him for that.

… and that is the last word.

Sunday's NFL Wildcard Match-ups

Posted on January 8, 2012 by Ben Kerr

SUNDAY 4:30pm PITTSBURGH @ DENVER +9

After all that talk about powerhouse teams, how can I seriously analyze this match-up? I can’t, so let’s just state our best case for each team and see if we can find any areas where Denver could gain some ground:

Why Denver will win:

Tebow coasted into the playoffs after securing the top spot in the division. He wasn’t at his best because he didn’t have to be, just like in individual games.

The KC from week 17 (7-3 loss) game may look bad but Romeo Crennell is really good at devising defensive plans to hold down certain teams. And KC, having played Denver once already (and watching the Patriots play them) had their number.

Pittsburgh is a banged up offense. They aren’t the same without Roethilisberger (Burger) running around outside the pocket, he is what makes the Pitt offense go. Now their lead back is out. With Hines Ward not contributing much it is basically Wallace and Brown for the Steelers and thats it. If Champ can limit one of them then they should be able to live with just the other guy beating them.

Denver is @ home where they wear defenses down with the running attack and the Steelers are an old defense primed to wear down. The Mile High air will get to them, it has already gotten to Ryan Clark who won’t play in the game because of health concerns. Clark is the Steelers surest tackler in the secondary, without him they could have some troubles against the run.

Chuck Norris is a Bronco fan.

The Denver pass rush is going to eat the Steelers oline for lunch. Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil are hard to block for anyone, no way the Steelers line and a banged up Burger are going to escape them.

Playoff time is Tebow Time.

Why Pittsburgh will win:

This is child’s play for Pittsburgh. Denver is not even good, just look at who they beat: Miami, Oakland, KC, Jets, San Diego, Minnesota, Chicago – these 7 wins coming in an 8-week stretch.

Burger will be four weeks removed from his injury by game time. Practically an eternity for the indestructible man.

Pittsburgh made the Super Bowl last year and lost to far and away the best team in the league. Plus if you remove the two Baltimore losses, Pittsburgh only lost to Houston(with Schaub) and San Fran, both playoff teams. Denver had to rely on six straight comeback wins to just go 8-8.

Losing Mendenhall isn’t good, but it’s not like it is a massive drop off to Dwyer or Redman. Pittsburgh is a passing team now anyways.

There is just no way any Steelers defense is going to lose a game to a run-only offense helmed by a QB that can’t throw.

The Denver D looked good for a couple of weeks but where has it been lately? They are just frauds who got lucky against some bad QB’s.

Hines Ward decaying, or um, retiring, will provide inspiration for another road warrior Superbowl run, like in 2005 with the Bus.

John Fox has been way too conservative in his decision-making down the stretch. He has punted on 4^th and short and in opponent territory several times. Isn’t this team uniquely designed to be able to pick up 1 yard when they need to?

The final verdict? The only way I can see the Steelers losing this game is if Burger is really a shell of the player he actually is. Pittsburgh is a veteran team that can win lots of ways. Without the QB injury they are probably best team in the AFC. The Broncos on the other hand just aren’t good. They never beat anyone good and couldn’t win when they needed to down the stretch. Steelers win. But the spread is another story.

Check out these results: 23-20 Colts, 32-30 Cards, 24-17 Bengals, 13-9 Chiefs, 13-9 Browns. Those are the scores of the Steelers road victories. They only went 5-3 all year on the road, losing to every good team they faced. Out of all those games they won by more than 9 points just once, early in the season is pass friendly Arizona. All those good points for Denver were not enough to convince me that they could win but can they keep this one close? I think so. Pittsburgh rarely blows teams off the field and they are the master of letting teams hang around and yet still feeling totally in control of the game. With the injury to Burger I don’t see the Steelers scoring many points and despite what some people think Denver will get a few. For the sake of the playoffs I am going to get hyper specific on you:

Steelers 17, Broncos 9 – With the likely highlight being Denver settling for a 4th quarter FG in Steelers territory despite everyone in the world knowing they are cooked if they don’t finish that drive with a TD, John Fox will be unwavering.

Serie A Review, and Preview of Week 17

Posted on January 8, 2012November 4, 2021 by Frank Giuliano

REVIEW OF THE SERIE A TABLE

Happy New Year to all of the soccer lovers out there! Now that the Holiday season has come to an end, it’s back to business as usual in the Serie A. A quick rundown of the standings will give the impression how tight and interesting the second half of the season will be. AC Milan and Juventus FC ended 2011 tied for first place with 34 points. It seems that these two teams will be renewing their championship battle as it was in the 1990s. Udinese Calcio sits closely behind the joint leaders in third place with 32 points which is surprising considering the club sold key players (Inler and Sanchez) and fell short of Champions League action losing to Arsenal in the qualifying round. SS Lazio are following the bianconeri of Udine with 30 points, while Internazionale FC seem to be making an astonishing climb up the table currently placed fifth with 26 points.

PREVIEW OF WEEK 17

This week, Parma FC travels to Milan to face the Nerazzurri. The Inter players will be eager to show their optimism about 2012. Captain Javier Zanetti claims this year will be the year of Inter. Personally, I think he has to give his head a shake. US Città di Palermo is at home against SSC Napoli. The rosaneri Sicilians have two new weapons to release today: firstly, Swedish striker Agon Mehemti, who many are comparing to Zlatan Ibrahimovic; lastly, Argentine playmaker Franco Vasquez. Palermo is hoping these two players can help turn their season around. Napoli was also active on the transfer market acquiring the services of Chilean Forward Eduardo Vargas. The bianconeri of Udine will host the bianconeri seahorses Cesena. Udinese will aim to do what no small organization has ever done before and that is keep pace with the GIANTS of Italy: Juventus FC and AC Milan. The Friulani are the favourites for the 3 points. US Lecce will take on The Old Lady of Italian Football at the Stadio Del Mare in Lecce. Bianconeri Boss Antonio Conte returns to his place of birth and will strive to maintain the Juve’s first place status. The derby of Lombardia will take place this weekend with the nerazzurri of Atalanta hosting AC Milan this weekend in Bergamo. This will be a tough matchup for both teams. The Rossoneri ended 2011 on a high beating Cagliari 2-0 on their travels. The Diavoli are currently one of the hottest teams in the Italian Championship. Atalanta is still undefeated at home and will provide a battle as the Bergamaschi are no push-overs. Milan has a history of struggle against their cross-region rivals Atalanta. Rossoneri coach Massimiliano Allegri planned to rest Kevin Prince Boateng ahead of the week 18 clash in the Derby della Madonnina with Inter, but may now opt to field the Ghanian international due to injury concerns to the midfield. Alberto Aquliani is out with an ankle injury. Speaking of next week’s derby showdown between the 2 Giants of Milan, there also seems to be a derby taking place in the transfer market as both clubs have targeted Carlos Tevez as reinforcement. The Argentine striker has agreed to personal terms with AC Milan and prefers to play for the Rossoneri who has offered to take the player on loan with an option to buy at the end of the season. However, Inter has established an agreement with Manchester City in order to buy the player outright in the January transfer window. Manchester prefers to sell Tevez as quickly as possible. What a battle this will be!

SERIE A 2011-12

LATEST
Week 17 08 Jan 2012 (14.00 UK)
Atalanta	Preview	Milan
Bologna	Preview	Catania
Cagliari	Preview	Genoa
Inter	Preview	Parma(Sat 19.45)
Lecce	Preview	Juventus
Novara	Preview	Fiorentina
Palermo	Preview	Napoli(19.45)
Roma	Preview	Chievo
Siena	4 – 0	Lazio(Sat 17.00)
Udinese	Preview	Cesena(11.30)
FIXTURES
Week 18 15 Jan 2012
Catania	–	Roma
Cesena	–	Novara
Chievo	–	Palermo
Fiorentina	–	Lecce
Genoa	–	Udinese
Juventus	–	Cagliari
Lazio	–	Atalanta
Milan	–	Inter
Napoli	–	Bologna
Parma	–	Siena

Playoffs – Saturday's Games

Posted on January 7, 2012 by Ben Kerr

Before the playoffs begin I think it helps to remind ourselves about the basic ideas we had heading into this season. This was the abbreviated season, short camps, less hitting, less recruiting time, and maybe most importantly less time to evaluate your own team and find out what your needs were (which made it really hard for some teams to improve). There were three popular thoughts heading into the season and like most things in the NFL the general consensus was wrong. The first was that moving the kickoffs up 5 yards was going to ruin the return game. Clearly this had an impact on touchbacks, but early on the impact on returns themselves was minimal – still plenty going for long distance. The changes have mostly gone unnoticed, I hadn’t even thought about the kick-off rule for 8 weeks until I sat down to write this. The second thought was that because of the shortened practice time offenses were going to struggle. Yes, that is actually what we thought. Instead it was the defenses who suffered because the rules make it easy to play pitch and catch with a receiver and hard to cover anyone on the field. Offense is easy, it is the defenses that need to be precise and complex just to stop anybody. While passing numbers in general are rising I don’t think we will see the extreme numbers put up by several QB’s this year again for a few seasons – offenses did cool somewhat after he unbelievable start. The one thing that was bang on was the prediction that the veteran teams with the most continuity would be the teams best prepared for the season. This couldn’t have been more correct. The #1 seed in the AFC last year and last years Super Bowl Champion Packers grabbed to the two #1 seeds this year. Playoff mainstays Baltimore and Pittsburgh dueled it out all season for the #2 spot. The two division winners in the AFC not to make the playoffs this season were ravaged by injuries. The Colts lost Peyton, Manning, and Peyton Manning – these multiple losses were too much to overcome. The Chiefs we’re probably headed for a decline anyways, but they still lost their 2 of their best players in the first few weeks of the season (Jamall Charles, Eric Berry) and saw a host of other important injuries including losing their starting QB. This is what led to the rise of the Texans who battled it out all year with New England, Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

In the NFC the Packers, Falcons and Saints picked up where they left off last year. Even Detroit who made an impressive leap to the playoffs did so with more or less the same core of stars from the season before. The Giants may seem like a fresh face but remember they only lost the division title on a tie-breaker last year, and the NFC East is always tough to win.

This means the only surprise teams of the season are the Bengals and 49ers. The Bengals added a real QB for the first time in several seasons(since 2004?) and a sensational rookie wide receiver in AJ Green. But most of the rest of the team remained intact and the Bengals hardly blew anyone away this year (more to come).

That leaves the 49ers. All of this continuity makes what Jim Harbaugh was able to accomplish seem even more impressive. Either that or make us question Mike Singletary’s stint as a head coach even more, because San Fran made this incredible leap with the same core of players and a few free agent additions.

Enough with the details, what does it all mean? For the most part the teams that were the best teams last year stayed the best this year. How does this impact the NFL playoffs? Don’t get too cute. There is no need to over-analyze these match-ups, for he most part we are seeing the true power teams facing off against glorified also rans. The good teams are the good teams and you don’t need to do too much more digging than that. If a team looks like a powerhouse then they probably are, and if you think a team has looked shaky lately, that is probably right too. We know who is here every year: Green Bay, New Orleans, New England, Baltimore, Pittsburgh. Lean on those teams and everyone will end up OK. Really we already know that either Green Bay (last years SB winner) or New Orleans (the SB winner from 2 years ago) is making the bowl this year. There is no need to think up fantastic scenarios where these teams choke the season away, it isn’t going to happen.

With that in mind, let’s move on to the picks. Saturday’s games and Sunday’s games to follow:

SATURDAY 4:30pm

HOUSTON -4 over CINCY

This is the ugliest game of the weekend, which we always get as a treat to start off the playoffs, and it might be the toughest game of the weekend to call too. Because of that I wont spend too much time on it.

I don’t even need to spend any time recapping the Texans. We know what they are. They were a good team who lost their QB, now they are somewhere around average and everyone is left wondering is that still enough to beat the Bengals. Here are all the reasons you can’t take Cincy in this one:

Cincy had five chances to step up and grab a big win down the stretch of the season (2 Baltimore, 2 Pittsburgh, Houston). They came up short in every game. Maybe they made some of the games close but they were never able to pull off a victory. They essentially lost their season away, like the Broncos, but still ended up making it. Does this team really deserve it and is there any reason to think they can suddenly change and pick up a big win on the road now when the stakes are higher?

There isn’t, know why? because the only win they got all year against a team with a winning record was against Tennessee who only made it there because the last team they faced wasn’t totally trying. They are in the playoffs because of luck and schedule, which you will see is sort of a trend this year. One other impact of the shortened camp was that the mid-level teams were really poor this year. If you weren’t a top tier team you kind of sucked. And I know this happens every year but usually some mid-level team will play really well down the stretch and get people believing in them. Never happened this year. Cincy was just the most lucky.

Andy Dalton clearly has some talent to do what he did in his rookie season, but the ride may be over for him. No one is talking about it (maybe because it is the Bengals) but he just is not playing good anymore. He is lucky to have AJ Green and in future seasons we may learn that his success this year had more to do with the phenomenal Green than we thought. But when comparing the situation of Texans QB TJ Yates and Dalton I think Yates has it alot easier this week and if anyone is going to melt down it will be Dalton.

So how is the defense? It must be really good right? Not really. Statistically they are average. When you watch them they do have a feel about them that they are very physical and strong against the run but the numbers don’t bear it out. And their played such and ugly roster of QB’s this year you can’t really tell. The best QB they beat all year was Matt Hasselbeck, after that it is either Tavaris Jackson or John Skelton (sorry Ryan Fitzpatrick). I will let that one speak for itself.

I believe in what I just said but all of it doesn’t amount to anything compared to this. The real reason I can’t take Cincy here is for that moment on Saturday at about 2:14 PM when I am sitting on my couch and the Bengals are punting on 4th and 2 from the Houston 37 to make sure they play the field position game to perfection and suddenly I realize what I have done: I bet on Marvin Lewis. And not just any Marvin Lewis. Marvin Lewis in a road playoff game with the expectations of a tattered franchise resting on his shoulders against a Texans team in the playoffs for the first time ever in a dome in front of a raving mad fan base. And then I will never forgive myself.

So I don’t love laying the 4 points, but I have to do it. Hyper specific score alert:

Houston 23, Bengals 7

SATURDAY 8:30PM

NEW ORLEANS -11 over DETROIT

Despite my earlier ramblings about the power teams I think this is actually a very tough opening round to call. I am going to try to stick to my theory as close as possible and see how it works out. I just covered Cincy-Houston, but I also think the Giants game and possibly the Broncos game will be close. This game will not. Disregard what I said about the last game, totally ignore what I am going to write about Sunday’s games, I don’t care. Just listen to me on this one. New Orleans is going to spank Detroit today. Here are way too many reasons why:

Detroit is not a good team. Wait, I have to say it again, Detroit is not a good team. Look at them lately, or all season really. They have been good at late game comebacks, mostly coming against less than playoff calibre teams. They have never been able to stop any good offense or even hold them under 30 points. The best team they beat all year was either Dallas (8-8) who they trailed by 3 TD’s and came back (impressively) to beat, or San Diego, who are really a fraud themselves and Detroit laid the smack down on them. Other than that their best game against a good team has to be the thanksgiving game against Green Bay where their D looked good early. But even this game was a no doubter for Green Bay and it had every advantage tilted in Detroit’s favour. Detroit looked like they had a good defense early in the season but it hasn’t been the same lately. Giving up that many points to Matt Flynn in a game they needed to win has to be a red flag. Plus the cornerstone of their defense is their Dline. Just ask the Giants how Drew Brees can neutralize a defensive line. On offense they look like a really good team when throwing to Calvin Johnson and they look like a poor team throwing to anyone else. They are in Shot Gun all the time which puts pressure on Matt Stafford to make every throw perfect. Outside of a few individuals there is nothing good about this team.

New Orleans on the other hand is laying the smack down on everyone lately. Their offense is clicking, run game and pass game. Brees looks like the best QB in the league at the moment. They already beat Detroit 31-17 earlier this season. Detroit was coming off extra long rest after thanksgiving and New Orleans had leads in that game of 17-0 and 24-7 – those late game comebacks again. New Orleans has Drew Brees and the baddest offense on the planet at the moment, the one team you do not want to face is New Orleans in the Superdome. And Detroit is quite likely just a one year wonder.

The only reason to not love New Orleans is fear. Fear that New Orleans had a playoff let down last year. Fear that New Orleans has shown themselves capable of having really bad games (St. Louis) or bad offensive performances (Tennessee). Fear that New Orleans defense just isn’t that good and even if New Orleans scores 35 Detroit can score 31. Well that’s true. The Fear is real. That’s why this game isn’t a lock. New Orleans could give up 40 and lose, or they could give up 35 and not cover. But that fear shouldn’t stop anyone from grabbing this great value. New Orleans is at home and it is playoff time, when they grab that lead (which they will) they are not going to stop scoring.

More Detroit because I know you aren’t convinced yet – The only good performance they had on D against a good offense was the week 16 game against SD, holding them to 10 points. I don’t know how it happened. Remember, this Detroit team started the season 5-0, since then they are a 5-6 teams. Let’s break down all of their wins. Playing the AFC West is the only reason they are in the playoffs. They went 4-0 against KC-OAK-DEN-SD. In their division they went 3-3 (while beating MIN twice), against the NFC South they went 2-2 (beating, you guessed it, CAR-TBAY) their strength of schedule games we’re @ DAL (win) and home for SF (loss).

Final tally: 0 teams with a winning record beaten (0-5). Three wins in three try’s versus 8-8 teams. Beat every bad team they faced, while there is something to be said for that, they were rarely impressive in doing so. Two massive blow-out victories (KC and @DEN). 0 heartbreaking losses. 2 close losses – SF and @ GB second string. Three very late, very large comeback victories @MIN week 3, @DAL week 4, @OAK week 15. So they have shown the ability to rally on the road, but those are not good teams.

If you throw out week 17’s 45-41 loss @ GB than Detroit failed to score 20 points in each of their losses. Which is also their only games against good teams(the non-winning record team they lost to was CHI, won first time 24-13, lost second time @CHI 37-13). They put up 30 or more in 6 of their 10 wins. This is how they pad the stats.

They picked on the weak teams all year and even the weak teams almost knocked them off a couple of times. Only their offense is prolific when playing weak teams so they were able to rally. You know who Detroit is? A poor man’s version of the early 2000 KC Chiefs. They put up all the points in the world and look so great but when it comes time to get down to business against a real team they are nowhere to be found. And like the Chiefs they are propped up by too many games against bad teams.

New Orleans is a great team, Detroit is an average team. Think about this, Detroit is probably not even a playoff team next year, they are only in because of that 5-0 start. You are going to take this team to hang with New Orleans? They are the hottest team in the league right now. They have an all-time QB playing in a great offense. This is the foundation of the Super Bowl champion in 2009. When looking at the spreads you always have to double-check the QB when needing to cover points. No one is more consistent than Brees, who is playing at the peak of his powers. So the only thing left to worry about is Detroit’s late game comebacks. Thankfully, this is the playoffs. New Orleans is out for blood and they are not going to let this game slip away on them. As I said when they get the lead they are going to extend the lead.

Still not convinced? Ok, let’s go the more conventional route just to make sure we include everyone in this money making fiasco. 3 more points.

New Orleans won the Bowl in 09, last year they made the playoffs as a wild card but had to go on the road to a notoriously tough stadium (Seattle) and had no run game because they were using their 27th string running back. Without that string of injuries maybe New Orleans is the back to back defending champ right now. Now Detroit is supposed to go on the road to a notoriously tough stadium with no run game because they are using their 4th? 5th? string running back and beat a vastly superior team than the Seahawks? For some reason I don’t see it. Even if these were even teams the fact Detroit is travelling to a loud dome with no running game would be cause for concern.

Detroit offense starts game really slow and is also very streaky. You just can’t do this again New Orleans. They scored 3 TD’s and a FG on their first 5 possessions against Detroit the first time they played. If you give New Orleans the ball back you have to assume they are scoring. Their offensive consistency is ridiculous.

New Orleans doesn’t have a good defense, I know this. But they do have a creative co-ordinator. And when he knows a team he is usually able to piece a game-plan together to limit that team’s success. New Orleans never gives up that many points in division games because they know those teams. Now that they have seen what Detroit has got I think they will be able to hold their own against the Detroit defense.

I say again, New Orleans doesn’t have to beat Detroit, but they really should. And you get to side with Drew Brees, possibly the surest thing going right now. Like my buddy likes to say, a bargain at any price.

New Orleans 42, Detroit 17

Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

Month: January 2012