Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

Thursday Night NFL Pick

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars Military Ceremony © by NYCMarines

I got off work early today which couldn’t be sweeter with tonight’s Jets-Broncos match-up looming that is a real can’t miss game.  So I get home and flip on NFL network to get my juices flowing.  I turned it on just in time to see two things, Marshall Faulk looking positively O.J. like, and some reporter beating around the bush about how Mark Sanchez isn’t progressing as much as the team would like right now.  What he really meant, I think, is that Sanchez stinks.  Why is it that everyone is afraid (not allowed?) so say it?  Does it have something to do with New York?  This guy gets nothing but excuses made for him.  He is in a great situation in New York and he doesn’t produce consistently.  He isn’t so bad that I couldn’t see him eventually becoming a good QB, he just isn’t one right now.  See, it’s not that hard to say.

One other thing I caught was this piece on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/10013/ease-up-tampa-haters-their-schedule-has-been-historically-tough#more Definitely some good research here, but the reason it caught my eye was because I was doing some research of my own this week on how bad the Bucs really are.  My conclusion: Bad.  In 2009 the Bucs were not a good team.  They didn’t get their first win of the season until the 9th week of the season and only finished at 3-13.  But they had one important victory.  They beat the eventual Super Bowl champion Saints in week 16 of the season, it was only their second loss of the season, even if it was an OT victory this win put Tampa on the map.  They obliged the young and improving team narrative the next season by taking their improvement all the way up to 10 wins, and they threw one big upset in there also, over the Saints again.  This season they sit at 4-5m with two of their victories coming over Atlanta and New Orleans, beating them has become familiar.  The Bucs are defenitely a competitive team when playing within their own division.  But is this divisional success misleading us when it comes to how strong the Bucs really are overall as a team?  I wanted to find out.  I took all of their victories from this season and from 2010 and I just did one simple thing, I removed the fact they beat the Saints.  After that I added up the combined records of every team they have beaten over 2 seasons.  The results? An ugly 49-107.  The average team they have beaten is about a 7-9 team.  The only good team they have beaten over that time frame is Atlanta this season, another division game.  Not a single other team even had a .500 record.  Basically they had one of the easiest schedules around last season because their division got to play the NFC West. (Remember how Atlanta went 13-3, yeah they weren’t that good either) So their schedule got them to 10 wins and this season they are playing like it.  There are parallels between them and this years Chiefs.  They also went 10-6 last season because they got to play 4 games against the NFC West.  They have fallen apart in more spectacular fashion this season, with a big part of it being due to injuries, so the perception between KC and Tampa is probably not that close right now. And Tampa is better than KC, but there is nothing wrong with Tampa this season, they just never were that good to begin with. It is pretty safe to assume they aren’t about to turn things around and go on a playoff push.

The Pick:

Jets -6 over DENVER – That is a lot of points to lay on the road I know but I can’t go any other way.  I have to start with the Jets first because I don’t think I have that much to say about the Broncos.  The Jets will always be a dangerous team because of their defense but I never understood all this talk about them being back because of their recent wins, and I did not understand them as a favorite over the Patriots.  The Jets were sitting at 2-3 before they got to play a home game against Miami that they won easily, but not before the Dolphins had a bunch of redzone  possessions they could not convert on (and turned one into a Jets TD).  They followed that up with another home game, this time against San Diego.  San Diego outplayed the Jets.  This didn’t look so bad at the time but after the last 3 weeks of football since that game it looks really bad.  The Jets won because their defense was able to create key turnovers and score late in the game.  They followed this game up with a division match-up against Buffalo, a team they are tailor made to beat.  The Bills throw short and have no power on the offensive or defensive lines.  The Jets kill short passes and still have some power on offense.  It was a predictably easy victory.  I don’t see how these three wins combined added up to a Jets team that was suddenly back on top.  It didn’t.  They didn’t look good against the Patriots, but what’s worse is they couldn’t even move the ball consistently on the Pats D, even going as far as to have trouble blocking the Pats negative pass rush. (my term for their abhorrent lack of a pass rush)  Does any of this matter against the Broncos?  Absolutely not.  The Jets are the team that never goes away and they always seem to win when at times when they are being talked about negatively.  The Jets are still a good team with a defense that can be great and they aren’t about to let the Broncos knock them out of the playoff hunt.  Not that I don’t believe in Tim Tebow.  I couldn’t be more excited to watch him go up against the Jets D.  But I don’t think it will be pretty. Playing the Jets D is a lot different from Oakland and Kansas City.  If Denver lines up and makes it obvious they are running the same offense from the last two weeks the Jets are going to have a field day going big and stuffing runs.  In my mind the Jets either crush this one out of the park or they let Denver hang on and the Broncos pull out a close one.  The points don’t even matter.

One more thing I will say for the Broncos.  You have to love John Fox’s ability to adapt in the middle of the season and keep his team competitive.  But even more than that you have to appreciate how he has been able to bring this defense along even though they really don’t have the players to be good.  Last season the Broncos were horrible at stopping the run, they didn’t even look like an NFL team while trying to do so.  But this season they have had some success against the run.  Enough success that they have been able to keep almost every game they have played close.  This is something to build on because they have Champ Bailey in the secondary still and two really good pass rushers in Elvis Dumervil and 2nd overall pick Von Miller, and with a name like Von Miller how can he not succeed really? Granted two good QB’s (Rodgers and Stafford) totally blew them out.  But John Fox is proving his value in season one in Denver.  It will be interesting to see if Tebow remains the QB next season and what this defense can look like when they add a bunch of draft picks.

Kids and Sports: How Sports Have Changed Since We Were Kids

As a teacher I know firsthand what can happen when children are overwhelmed with after-school activities, particularly sports. Don’t get me wrong, sports is a good thing, a very good thing.  But what has happened over the past 20 years since I hung up my size nine Bauers and traded my cleats for a guitar?  Sports are different.  Parents are different.  Kids are different.  The factors going into each is so multi-faceted that it would require me to write multiple blog entries, just to keep you awake.  I’ll try to do an abridged version.  Wish me luck…

My memories of sports as a kid was waking up early Saturday morning for hockey practice.  My father, occasionally my mother, would get a coffee and I would fall out of bed and put on my hockey equipment and head to the rink.  After practice I would head home and forget about it until my game later in the week.  The game was fun, practice, not so much.  Our games were in three ten-minute periods.  For the most part we changed lines evenly, things rarely getting out of control.  Hockey was a lot of fun, not the serious business it seems to be now. I played hockey in the winter and baseball, and later soccer, in the summer.  My commitment, even when I played all-star baseball, was two days per week at the most.

The first thing I want you to consider is your first hockey stick.  Actually, consider every stick you ever owned as a kid.  If you’re my age (30-something), likely you spent no more than $30 on a stick and it was likely wooden.  I really don’t remember seeing a stick that wasn’t wooden until I picked the game back up as a twenty-something.  Compare that to today.  It is quite typical for kids to use sticks costing upwards of $100.  Even $200 sticks are common.  Whatever people want to spend money on is their business, not mine, but having the “it” stick is a great source of discussion amongst children.  Actually, children are often judged by the type of stick they have, and that’s where I just can’t relate.  Bobby Orr used a solid wood stick and he turned out pretty well, right?  Let’s move on.

I find both kids and parents have become much more serious about sports in general.  Consider how many sports clinics, camps, classes, tournaments and schools have popped up over the past decade.  It seems there are so many and they are all competing for our money.  I find it quite common for kids to have activities on four or five days of the week.  With this increase in scheduling, when can they just “play” outside?  Do kids have time to play street hockey?  Wait, do kids actually play street hockey?  What about shooting hoops?  Does anyone have a basketball net anymore?  How can they organize a game when most of their friends are busy with other organized activities?  And, from a teacher’s perspective, when can they do homework?

It is easy for us to put our sons and daughters in extra-curricular activities because we are inundated with possibilities, each with its own set of promises.  We see something in our kids, something which makes them special, and our first instinct is to hone that skill by signing them up for further lessons and instruction.  Admittedly, I fell into this trap.  My son has already completed a soccer camp before his second birthday.  Why?  He had fun, I think.  He still talks about “Soccer Tots”.  It was a good program, and I have no complaints about it specifically.

Ultimately, parents are pulling the strings.  On an increasing basis, kids are being over-scheduled.  When they are young, and other commitments are minimal, it is more manageable.  The problem is when they reach adolesence, and have more responsibilities to school, that it can become dangerous.    Again, sports is a very good thing.  I am not suggesting that they should be removed from a child’s life, however, I think we as parents need to consider the possibility of over-scheduling our children.

…and that is the last word.

 

 

Keep Eating Them Raw

WOW!  One of the most exciting games in CFL history took place last Sunday in Montreal.

Finally, after three days of being in hibernation, I have recovered from the Sunday-induced cardiac arrest.  The thrilling, entertaining and incredibly surprising Hamilton Tiger Cats victory over the Montreal Alouettes rendered me speechless.  Both teams seemed to answer each other’s major scores throughout the game.  The Cats also had to deal with a horrible video review call, preventing them from a very timely turnover.  Add to that one of the worst special teams disasters, unless you are a Roughriders fan, of course.

Basically, Hamilton had the chance to win with no time on the clock with a “good” field goal.  Justin has been lights out all season, and the kick’s success seemed inevitable.  Unfortunately, the young placeholder, Jason Boltus, forgot to signal to the long snapper to hike the ball.  The result: Time Count Violation.  Ugh!  Five yards further from the goal, Medlock missed a long kick, sending it to overtime.

A quick strike to Williams, along with back to back “facemasking” calls against Chip Cox, had Hamilton all but in the endzone.  A play later and Hamilton was on top.  After strong play from the defence, including a timely sack for a loss, the Cats earned their visit to Winter-peg, err, Winnipeg.

Out west, Calgary looked very shaky at the start and Edmonton was quick to take advantage.  Drew Tate’s interception was returned for a touchdown seemed to be the turning point in the contest.  Edmonton took the lead, and on the veteran shoulders of Ricky Ray, they head further west to battle the Lions of British Columbia.

I must say, I was surprised by the poor attendance (though high television ratings) in both contests.  In each case the attendance was only around 30,000, barely higher than regular season tilts.  Edmonton was a particular surprise because they haven’t been in the postseason in a few years and haven’t hosted a home game in even longer.  I guess the Alouettes have developed the Red Wings/ Braves syndrome of only showing up in later rounds.  Too bad for Montreal…better luck next year!

So, on with the predictions…

My record was 1-1 last week.  Let’s see if I can move to 75% with two winners this Sunday.

HAMILTON @ WINNIPEG

The Cats are hot right now.  I’m taking them to win this game, provided they can stay focused and limit the mistakes they made in Montreal (ie. Chris Williams’ touchdown drop, for instance).  Winnipeg’s quarterback situation is up in the air.  Buck Pierce is hurt, whether he plays or not, and Brink is an unproven quarterback.  Either way, they don’t equal Hamilton’s offence right now.  I do acknowledge the Bombers’ defence is strong, and they must avoid turning the ball over – no freebies!  The Cats are due to beat Winnipeg (going 0-3 this season), and they haven’t beaten Winnipeg in the playoffs since the 1989 Eastern Final.  That’s a span of four playoff games.    Hamilton 35-Winnipeg 15.

EDMONTON @ BC

B.C. is on such a role right now, and with the home crowd behind them coupled with the opportunity to play at home for the Grey Cup, they will prevail.  My predicion is B.C. 32- Edmonton 20.

WHAT DO YOU THINK???

…and that’s the last word.

Coach K Stands Alone

“I hated to lose.” – Mike Krzyzewski

903.

That is how many wins Mike Krzyzewski has in his career, now the all-time leader, surpassing his mentor Bobby Knight, for winningest coach in NCAA Men’s Basketball Division I history.

Let’s try and put that number into perspective.

If you coached a basketball game for every day, it would take you two and half years to reach that mark; and that’s assuming you won every single game.

And Coach K shows no signs of stopping anytime soon. With his Blue Devils ranked in the AP Top 10 for what feels like the 20th consecutive season, Duke is poised to add at least 20 more wins this year alone to Krzyzewski’s legacy. And his legacy is already a spectacular one: 4 NCAA Championships (1991, 1992, 2001, 2010), 11 Final Four appearances, 13 ACC Championships, Basketball Hall of Fame (2001), USA National Team Head Coach (1987, 1990, 2006-present) and Olympic Gold Medal (2008). There is a reason Duke signed him to a lifetime contract.

His ability to turn his players into winning teams is unparalleled: in his thirty years at Duke, Coach K is 830-225, an amazing winning percentage of 0.787. He has only has two losing seasons at Duke, in his second and third seasons at the helm. He has had twelve 30+ win seasons, including the last three. He has led his Blue Devils to twenty six 20+ win seasons; an amazing feat in a traditional powerhouse such as the ACC.

“You never want to be the guy that threw to Hank Aaron,” Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo said, in the days prior to the matchup with Duke. “It’s an incredible feat he’s trying to get to. I hope he gets there. I just hope it’s not on our night.”

Unfortunately for Izzo and his Spartans, it was. Just another impressive addition to a career filled with milestones.

Coach K now stands alone and it couldn’t be more deserved.

… and that’s the last word.

Falcons Fall – A Questionable Decision Goes Awry!

Matt Ryan © by 55thstreet

The decision Mike Smith made to “go for it” in overtime of the Atlanta – New Orleans game on 4th and inches from Atlanta’s own 29 has created a lot of buzz.  Atlanta lined up and ran the ball – and failed, and now everyone has an opinion about whether this was the right call or not.  Most people are of the opinion that it was a bad decision, but you know these are the same people who would be saying “great call” if it had worked.  It was a very difficult call to make and a good argument could be made for both sides which is probably one of the reasons it is generating so much discussion.  I don’t want to discuss the decision, but I do want to rip the play call, and I’m not quite sure why no one else is.

Atlanta lined up with every man in tight to the formation and no wide outs.  A fullback and running back were in the backfield.  At the snap, the play design was a ‘power run left’, and it called for the right guard to pull to lead through the hole.  Falcons RB Michael Turner got the ball at the snap but by the time he hit the hole New Orleans had already penetrated through the gap and he was dead in the hole.  There is so much wrong with this play I am going to have to break it down in stages.

First off, in this situation you QB sneak!  Spread it out, and QB sneak.  When does this play not work? Never, it always works.  Fourth and inches you QB sneak – it’s that easy.  Atlanta needs to watch a little more of the Patriots to see what a real team does when they need to gain 6 inches.

Secondly, Atlanta lined up with everyone in-tight to the formation to show power run. There were six linemen flanked by a TE and WR on the end of the line.  This allowed New Orleans to stack all 11 defenders in the box.  Aside from the formation I thought the Atlanta line itself lined up in peculiar fashion.  Each of the linemen was behind the center, and the center lined up behind the ball too instead of over top of the ball.  This made it so Atlanta had to gain a yard on the play instead of just a few inches. On the play Turner actually gained ground from where the O-line originally was lined up.  They weren’t pushed back by New Orleans, they just gave them that yard.  I will have to watch short yardage plays more closely in the future but it seems like Atlanta put themselves at a disadvantage before the play even started here.

Third, the power run with no misdirection is never the best play in a short yardage situation.  The defense is amped up to drive forward and smash into the O-line.  The Linebackers are set to get downhill and penetrate as soon as they see where the play is going. When you call a power run with no trickery you are running right into the teeth of the defense. When you fake the run the defense is almost always caught off guard in this situation.

Lastly, if you are choosing to run straight ahead then why do you pick a slow developing play with a guard pulling?  This is like phoning the defense before the play and telling them what your call is.

I liked Mike Smith’s aggressive decisions all day long.  It was a division game and he was pulling out all the stops to try to get a victory, something that is disturbingly absent from many coaches.  But nothing about this play really makes sense.  Atlanta is a good team but they often win in spite of their play calling and more so their offensive design.  To see these problems show up at such a crucial moment is sad.  Atlanta needs to go back to the drawing board.

…and that is the last word.

Texas-Sized Problem

ESPN.com is reporting the Houston Texans QB Matt Schaub will miss the remainder of the season with a Lisfranc injury.  This is devastating news for a Texans team that has never made the playoffs in franchise history but are currently sitting on top of the AFC South at 7-3.  I have never been a huge fan of Schaub and feel he has been over-rated due to his penchant for putting up great fantasy numbers.  This doesn’t mean he isn’t an effective player though.  His talents fit the offense well and the Texans offense has been clicking this season like one of the best units in the NFL.

If Schaub is out the Texans will have a bye week to get adjusted to their new quarterback, Matt Leinart.  Leinart is a former first round pick of the Arizona Cardinals.  He never played well enough to take over the starting QB role in Arizona long-term and he left the team in 2009, which is the last time he started a game.  If Leinart can not produce in this offense then there is no home for him in the NFL as a starter.  The offense has been tailored to suit Schaub with plenty of designed roll-outs and tons of throwing on the run, usually off of play-action.  These things won’t suit Leinart quite as well but there is reason to think he could succeed in this offense.

Schaub is an accurate passer but he does not have a rocket arm and cannot drive the ball down the field like many QB’s can.  But in this offense Schaub was not asked to drive the ball down the field.  Because of all the play-action and roll outs the throws Schaub often made were short passes to tight ends and running backs breaking free off of the formation.  Last season Houston ranked 2nd in number of play-action plays ran and 12th in number of times moving the QB out of the pocket.  When Schaub did need to throw it down the field he would usually look for the leagues best wide out, Andre Johnson.  With the massive Johnson you just need to put the ball in his area and watch him fight to go get it.  These are the types of throws that Leinart could succeed with.  Leinart does not have a strong arm so he could certainly use all the extra room afforded to throw the ball in the Houston offense.  Unfortunately for Leinart on top of arm strength, accuracy was also an issue at times for him in Arizona.  I don’t know if he has improved since he left Arizona but I do know there were times (usually earlyin his career) when Leinart showed the ability to be a strong player in the NFL.

I do think Leinart has enough ability to lead this offense, mostly because he won’t be asked to carry them.  The previously mentioned Johnson has been out most of the year but his return is imminent.  But something has happened while Johnson was out,  Arian Foster might have become the Texans most important player.  The Houston run game is near the top of the league right now.  In fact the last four games Houston have scored 41, 24, 30 and 37 points without Schaub ever having to complete 20 passes because the run game has been so dominant.  The offensive line is blocking so well that both Foster and backup Ben Tate are having stellar years.  But it is Foster who makes the offense go.  He is a special player and his style suits the Houston running scheme perfectly.  The Texans have to be careful not to burn him out though because right now his workload is too high and if it continues he won’t be playing his best football come playoff time.

If the run game can continue to produce without Schaub under center then I believe Leinart will be good enough to pick up some wins for the Texans and grow into a good quarterback for them.  If Leinart is even just competent then the Texans will still have a good shot at the playoffs with winnable games left against Jacksonville, Carolina, Indy and Tennessee. Watching the Houston Texans just got a lot more interesting for the rest of the year.

Week 1: Vandy and UCLA lose, everyone else wins.

Even President Obama came out for the UNC season-opener. (via US Navy, flickr)

Week 1 is in the books, and somewhat as expected, the Top 25 won all of their games.

The top team in the NCAA, the North Carolina Tar Heels, opened the season aboard the USS Carl Vinson against a mediocre Michigan State University. The final, a 67-55 UNC victory, reflected the huge difference in talent each program currently contains.

The remainder of the Top 25 teams all came out with a victory, with two exceptions: Vanderbilt and UCLA. There were a couple close games – looking at you Duke, with your 77-76 win over Belmont – but in the end, the “better” teams came out on top.

Some quick notes after Week 1:

  • UCLA (formerly #17), lost to Loyola Marymount, 69-58. After taking a one point lead into halftime, Loyola came out gunning in the second half, outscoring the Bruins by 10 to cruise to an easy win. UCLA is no longer in the Top 25.
  • Vanderbilt (formerly #7, currently #18) lost on Sunday to Cleveland State. The reigning Horizon League champions put on a show for the Vandy home crowd, easily beating the high-expectations Vandy team, 71-58.
  • Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski tied the NCAA record for coaching wins, currently held by Bobby Knight, with his 902nd win on Saturday night against Presbyterian. If Duke can win against Michigan State on Wednesday night at Madison Square Gardens, Coach K will stand alone as the best coach to ever grace the NCAA benches. I may be a UNC Blue Blood, through and through, but you have to respect greatness.

Interesting games, Week 2:

  • Kansas (12) vs Kentucky (2), Tuesday night, 9PM EST: In what should be a great test for the Kansas Jayhawks, the Kentucky Wildcats begin their season in tough, looking to avenge their Final Four loss to Connecticut.
  • Florida (7) vs Ohio State (3), Tuesday night, 8PM EST: Speaking of avenging losses, Ohio State looks to slap the SEC back into submission after their top team, Kentucky, knocked the Buckeyes out of the tournament last March.
  • Duke (6) vs Michigan State, Tuesday night, 7PM EST: Although Michigan State started the season with a loss to UNC, they are still receiving votes for entry into the Top 25. A win over the sixth-ranked Duke would go a long way to gaining them more votes. If Duke comes out on top, Coach K will stand alone.

A good start to the season, but the best is yet to come.

… and that’s the last word.

UFC on FOX 1: Success or Failure?

Last night marked the first time that the UFC touched conventional TV in its history. The hopes of the FOX and UFC brass are that this partnership will usher in a new era for the sport finally legitimizing it, by giving it exposure to the millions of eyeballs; a lacking part of the soon-to-be dead Spike deal. While this new collaboration between Fox and the UFC will undoubtedly grow the sport’s visibility, first impressions are often the most important – and I am still not sure it lived up to the hype.

One hour was devoted to a five-round showdown for the Heavyweight Championship. A premier fight for the UFC’s first showing, with all the makings of a legendary matchup between two incredibly talented fighters – Junior Dos Santos and Cain Velazsquez. Dana White was crossing fingers, hoping for a renaissance of “Griffin v. Bonnar I”. Unfortunately, Dana didn’t get his five-round war. A flash knockout that lasted less than two minutes, with Dos Santos leaving with his hand raised was the final result. One hour of TV, and less than two minutes of fighting.

For the hardcore MMA fan, you couldn’t have asked for more. Flashy knockouts and surprise endings are what makes this sport so great. Many fans have been anticipating this fight for months – and it couldn’t have ended in a more fitting way.

For those people who were getting their first glance of MMA, it’s still difficult to say if the brief adrenaline rush was enough to incite future interest. I can see people who actually tuned in at the same time as the fight started being happy with what they saw. That said, if I was someone new to the sport and I spent thirty-five minutes watching the fight build up, only to see the one fight end in two minutes, I may have been disappointed.

From an event stand-point I would say it went off without a hitch, but from a marketing point-of-view – I think it fell a little short. If you’re looking to gain new viewers (which was the sole purpose of that event), I am not sure it offered enough. I am not a promoter, but I would think a few more fights and a little more action would’ve been ideal. I know there is a certain induction that needs to take place to educate the uneducated, but they still could’ve squeezed in another fight – Henderson v. Guida would’ve been great to build excitement.

Yes, all of the fights were available on Facebook, but how many people who are new to the UFC are going to its fan page to watch the preliminary fights? It’s still not an ideal medium for building visibility; online is great once you get people there, but it’s getting people there that is the challenge.

As a fan, I am still satisfied. I can’t wait for the next event. And I am sure this deal with FOX will take the organization to new heights. I just felt like it was a luke-warm coming out for the lay person. It just means the first major card will have to be that much more!

… and that is the last word.

Quickest. Picks. Ever.

DALLAS -5.5 over Buffalo – Buffalo stinks, don’t ever forget it.

ATLANTA -1 over New Orleans

Detroit +2.5 over Chicago

Cincy +3.5 over Pitt

CLEVELAND -2.5 over St. Louis

Jacksonville -3 over INDY

KC -3.5 over Denver

Washington +4 over Miami

Arizona +12.5 over Philly

Houston -3.5 over Tampa

Tennessee +3.5 over Carolina

Baltimore -6.5 over Seattle

Giants +3.5 over San Fran

New England +1 over Jets

Minny +13 over Green Bay