Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

The Hunt for October

The path to the postseason is only paved with gold for some. Teams like Philly, Milwaukee, and Detroit look to be safe strolling down the yellow brick road. Arizona also looks to be in the drivers seat in the NL West, but I would advise them to keep the throttle down with the defending champs still in the rearview mirror. The other 2 division leaders aren’t so lucky. And as October looms, it looks like we will still be treated with a few dog-fights before the season ends.

Heading down the stretch, the AL East and AL West are still up for grabs. In the AL West, the L.A Angels are 2.5 games back of the current division leaders, the Texas Rangers. Texas has 18 games left, 6 against Oakland, 6 against Seattle, 3 against Cleveland, and their final 3 games of the season against the Angels. Which is actually a pretty easy schedule, playing the bottom 2 teams in their division 12 times out of the remaining 18. The Angels have it a little tougher over their remaining 19 games. They start with a 3 game series against the Yankees, play a 4 game series against the streaking Jays, and finish with that pivotal 3 game series against Texas. It would be nice if that final series between the 2 teams was going to decide which team will be playing ball in October, but my hunch is that Texas will have the division clinched by then.

In the AL East it’s a similar story. The Boston Red Sox are also 2.5 games back of the team which is leading their division, The New York Yankees. The Red Sox have looked bad lately dropping 6 of their last 8, and their schedule isn’t going to do them any favours. They have 19 games left. Of those 19, 7 are against Tampa Bay, 3 against the Yankees, and 2 more against the Jays who just handed them 3 loses this week. The silver lining is that they have 7 more games against the abysmal Orioles. The Yankees have 20 games left, playing 14 of the 20 in 13 days, which doesn’t make for an easy home stretch either. They have another 7 against the Rays, 3 with games each against, the Jays, the Angeles, the Mariners, and of course the Red Sox. They also have a make-up game against the Twins. Now I know what your thinking, as good as the battle for first place will be, because of their dominate records, the loser will still make the post season via the wild card spot. Well that is the most likely outcome, lets not count out the Rays. They are 9 games out of first, and 6.5 out of the wild card spot, but they have a combined 14 games against the Yankees and the Bo Sox, and they did win the division last year. It is a big mountain to climb, but their fate is in their hands.

That brings us to the wild card race. Which has little to no excitement in store. In the National League, Atlanta has it all but locked up, with St. Louis and San Fran a ways behind. And in the American League it pretty much belongs to the loser of the AL East race, which right now looks like Boston. But as I said earlier the Rays are still in the mix, as well as the loser of the Texas/L.A battle, but they would have to make up a lot of ground.

MLB – Probable Postseason Change

Eight teams make the playoffs in the current postseason format in Major Leauge Baseball; four from each of the American and National Leagues. Of the four teams representing each league, there are three division winners and one “wild card”. The wild card is awarded to the team with the best record amongst the teams that did not win a division title.  The first round of the postseason, called the Division Series (ALDS, and NLDS), has the four teams from each league play a best of five-game series determined by rank to see who moves on to the Championship Series.  The Championship Series (ALCS, and NLCS) has the remaining two teams from each league play a best of seven-game series to see who represents their respective league in the World Series. The World Series has the winner from each league play a seven-game series to determine who is the best team in baseball.

It’s an efficient format, but the downfall is that only eight teams make the postseason. In a league of 30 teams, that’s less than one-third. So making the postseason is tough, and if you’re a team like the Blue Jays it’s next to impossible being stuck in a division with two of the most dominate teams in Baseball. The Red Sox and Yankees are almost always fighting for the division lead, and whoever loses usually claims the lone wild card spot. Will the new proposed format change that? Well… no, not really. But it will give teams like the Jays a better shot.

There is a newly proposed format which will see 10 teams make the post season instead of the current eight. Basically everything will remain the same with the three division winners going through, but now instead of one wild card spot, there would be two.  The implications are very encouraging for teams who have been on the fringe of playoff baseball such as the Jays.  Toronto could finish third in their division and still earn a birth into the postseason. The other twist would be that before the Division Series there would be an extra round in where the two wild card teams from each league would square off in a one game playoff to see who plays in the Division Series.

To use the Jays analogy again, if the Red Sox finished first in the division, and the Yankees finished second and took the first wild card spot, the Jays (providing they had the best record of the remaining teams) could take the second wild card spot, beat the Yankees in a one game playoff, and move on to the ALDS. The only downfall is that you would probably use your best pitcher for the one game playoff making him unavailable for the first few games of the next series.  Aside from that it’s a step in the right direction.  And that is the  last word.

 

An NFL Classic at Lambeau: A Lesson to be Learned from Americans

The NFL season kicked off last night with a classic at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. The contest pitted two strong, balanced teams and two elite pivots – Rodgers vs. Brees.

If you watched the broadcast last night, you will no doubt agree that the Americans certainly know how to wave their flags, and that’s a lesson we can all learn from.

To begin, recording artist Kid Rock performed in front of many thousands of fans screaming while waving little American flags. While I could give a flying crap about Kid Rock, it was a good show.

And then to start the game, the crowd at Lambeau was transformed into a giant waving flag…are you picking up on the night’s theme? Really, it was spectacular.

And just prior to kickoff, singer Jordin Sparks sang the national anthem. She did well. I’m still not a fan, but she was great.

The whole time I was comparing the way Americans seem to wave their flags every chance they get, while we don’t seem to have the same enthusiasm.

Are other countries passionate about where they come from? Of course! We all bleed red in Canada (I do see the irony that blood is red)… but we don’t seem to want to jump up and down and wave our flags in the same way.

So what is right? Are the Americans waving their flags at events like last night’s game because they love their country, or because it has become part of their culture? I think a little of both.

I believe that the passion is the same, whether American, Canadian or other. But the way we demonstrate it is not. Own the Podium, our Olympic campaign for the Vancouver games, took a step forward, but our American friends have a gigantic head start.

Peyton Manning in Jeopardy

NFL Network’s Michael Lombardi is reporting that Peyton Manning underwent a third surgery on Thursday morning.  He is also speculating this surgery could delay his recovery 10-12 weeks.  He believes that if his recovery is in fact delayed this long that the Colts may decide to IR the all-star QB, ending his season.

How would the team respond to this development?  We all know about the Colts superstars: Wayne, Clark, Freeney, Mathis, Saturday.  But without Manning do these guys play like superstars anymore?  More importantly, do the Colts have the depth that will be able to step up in Manning’s absence?

The answer here is emphatic: No.  Kerry Collins has been washed up for years and simply will not give his team a chance to compete.  The offensive line is strong at pass-blocking with Manning behind center, but Collins simply cannot get rid of the ball as quickly as Manning.  The running game has not be effective in years.  And possibly the biggest factor is the style of defense they have. They are built to have the lead and rush the passer.  Although not dominant they are effective at this.  How will the defense respond when they are behind and teams are pounding them with the run game?

I don’t see how the Colts can complete with the Texans and maybe even the Titans all season long without Manning.

… and thats the Last Word

 

The Serie A Strike is over!

It’s finally here – the Serie A strike has come to an end! The Italian Players’ Association (AIC) and the club owners have reached an interim agreement that will expire June 2012. As the season begins, here are some predictions for the year:

It will most likely be a very tight race to the scudetto this year with AC Milan, Internazionale FC, and SSC Napoli being the strongest of the contenders. Finishing in first place and retaining last year’s crown will most likely be AC Milan as they are all-around the best team in Serie A at the moment. Not far off from first place should be their cross-city rivals, Internazionale FC, with their strength and depth in attack helping them to stay close. Finishing comfortably in third place should be SSC Napoli. The Neapolitans have reinforced their squad with the addition of key signings (Pandev and Inler) who increase the quality of the team. Finishing fourth in Serie A this term should be a toss-up between Lazio, Juventus, and Roma. Lazio should be the better pick of the three since they were in title contention for most of last year’s campaign. The Laziali have kept hold of their main players and have significantly strengthened their frontline with the acquisitions of Djibril Cissé and Miroslav Klose. Together, Lazio should be a goal-scoring machine this season. It remains unknown whether Juventus and Roma can push for a Champions League spot. Juventus, fresh from two consecutive seven-place finishes in Serie A, have once again completely revamped the squad bringing in a new and inexperienced coach in Antonio Conte as well as several new signings. Pirlo, the most notable signing, will show his class on the pitch. But will Elia, Estigarribia, Lichtensteiner, Vidal, Giaccherini, and Vucinic make that step up in quality which the Old Lady of Turin has needed since their return to the top flight? AS Roma, now owned by Thomas DiBenedetto, are also coached by the inexperienced Luis Enrique and have made some key signings as well before the transfer market ended obtaining players with high calibre – Bojan Krkic, Erik Lamela, Fernando Gago, Gabriel Heinze, Pablo Osvaldo, Miralem Pjanic, youngster Fabio Borini, and Simon Kjaer in defence. It will be surprising to see Lazio, Juventus, or Roma end the campaign better than fourth place. My pick: Lazio – although fourth spot no longer qualifies for the Champions League.

Top 4 picks:

1) AC Milan

2) Internazionale FC

3) SSC Napoli

4) SS Lazio, Juventus FC, AS Roma

I predict AC Milan striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic will be the leading goal scorer this season and Daniele De Rossi of AS Roma will receive the most cards.

Here are some of the key matches of week two:

Milan v Lazio – this is will be a tough test for the defending champions to start off the season. Lazio has beefed up their forwards with the purchase of France International Djibril Cisse, and Germany International Miroslav Klose.

Palermo v Inter-Milan – this will be a very tough match for inter. The Sicilians have always been strong on home turf. But how well will they cope with the loss of Javier Pastore?

Juventus v Parma. The Old Lady will face the team that started their downfall last season. This time around, they will aim to impress in their new stadium. I predict Lecce, Novara, and Cesena to be relegated to Serie B.

Here are my predictions for week two:

Milan v Lazio – Milian wins.

Parlermo v Inter – Tie.

Juventus v Parma – Juventus wins.

Chievo v Novara – Chievo wins.

Genoa v Atalanta – Tie.

Roma v Cagliari – Upset of the week = Cagliari wins.

Cesena v Napoli – Napoli wins.

Catania v Siena – Catania wins.

Fiorentina v Bologna – Fiorentina wins.

Lecce v Udinese – Udinese wins.

Good luck to those who play ProLine!

 

That’s the last word on Soccer.

Twitter me @lastwordfrank

Sidney Crosby: "for now", not forever!

Sidney Crosby addressed the media this Wednesday to explain to the hockey world the state of his recovery. What would normally be front and center was of course overshadowed by the tragedy that struck the KHL yesterday. It is extremely saddening to hear about the Lokomotiv hockey team. As far as Sid goes, his delayed return in my opinion is not sad at all.

In summary Crosby skated but is not cleared for contact. He was quoted as saying “the last three weeks have been really good. I feel myself getting better and better.” Good news but there is still no timetable for his return. Pittsburgh trainers are optimistic for a return this year but will not allow it until Crosby is fully recovered and back to normal.

Crosby will have a hard time getting back into the shape he was at last year before the concussion. He was on pace to reach 132 points had he played the full season. No player has broken 130 in a single year since Penguins stars Mario Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr did it centuries ago in the 95-96 season. It’s too bad for Crosby that he couldn’t complete the campaign. Sid’s best tally thus far was 120 points back in 06-07.

Patience is a virtue some say, and when you consider the risks that Crosby faces, it definitely is. I could care less if he starts the season, joins in after the all-star break, or misses the whole year. Why? Because I would rather watch him play for the next 15 years. It is good to see that the situation is being handled as carefully as possible. The face of the NHL will be sorely missed for now, but “for now” is better than forever.

CFL – A Labour of Love!

This past Labour Day Weekend in the Canadian Football League featured four Crazy games, with surprising results.

First on Friday Night Football the BC Lions beat the Toronto Argonauts 29 to 16 in front of just over 19,000 at Skydome. What overshadowed the argo loss were easily catchable dropped balls by receivers, and Dalton Bell’s stat at one point of throwing 4 interceptions and 4 complete passes. Yes you read it correctly, Dalton Bell.  Argo Coach Jim Barker pulled starting quarterback Cleo Lemon for Dalton Bell to begin the second half. Lemon, clearly upset with the change, did not act very professionally and in jest reacted while Bell struggled. At one point, he sarcastically pretended to slit his neck. I believe this lack of support Lemon showed Bell was one of the many reasons Lemon was released by the Argos this past Tuesday. Jim Barker did not want to start another quarterback controversy or have a divided locker room. So the easiest thing to do was get rid of the cause of the problem. Plus quarterback Steven Jyles is coming off the nine game injured list for the Argos rematch in Vancouver. So Barker is expecting better results from their prized off season move.

Also in this game, offensive lineman and hated dirty opponent Rob Murphy tore his ACL and is out for the season. Currently the situation for the boatmen is looking very bleak and I LOVE IT! ARGOS SUCK!!!!!!!!

Sunday afternoon 1-7 Saskatchewan under new old coach Ken Miller beat up 7-1 Winnipeg, 27-7. This game was very surprising as the Roughriders looked like the team with the winning record and the Blue Bombers, being the better team just stunk. But this goes to show the importance of Labour Day and the team that is better prepared and more hungry will win, despite their record.  Dariant Durant was lights out as the Green Riders dominated this game. One will ask if the new found spark from the coaching change will last? Ken Miller was a looser coach than his predecessor Greg Marshall, who was more business and authoratative. Miller’s paternal demeanour and willingness to let loose and dance in-front of his players was more respected and as a result his players responded well to it. I feel Ken Miller has a stronger pulse on this team and will get a few more wins out of them. However I don’t see the Rough Riders making the playoffs because this team is too far behind the eight ball, and many of these players simply are too old.

On Labour Day Monday my Hamilton Tiger Cats hammered the Montreal Alouettes 44 to 21. Ticat receiver Maurice Mann fumbled early deep in Hamilton territory which resulted in spotting Montreal a 7 point lead. But Alouette Quarterback Anthony Cavillo couldn’t do anything right and showed his frustration as the Ticat defense truly ate them raw. The game’s key turning point came at the end of the first half when the Hamilton defence stopped Montreal from scoring three times on the one yard line. Hamilton went into the half up 14 points rather than 7. Throw in two Quinton Porter TDs, a Maurice Mann TD,

And that is the last word.

Jon "Bones" Jones: Flavour of the Month? Or here to stay?

Jon Jones. His rise to stardom has been nothing less than awe inspiring. Devastating victories over all of his opponents, with convincing finishes over each of them. Only one loss marks an otherwise perfect record – the DQ to Matt Hamill (whom he was dominating before being called for an illegal elbow). With all of that said, how can you really argue that the guy isn’t going to be king for awhile?

A couple of things come into question…

  • Arguably, Shogun is the only top level competitor that Jones faced.
  • Jones’ chin has really not yet been tested – one lucky “Matt Serra-esque”hayday could be the end of a very short reign.
  • The Light Heavyweight division is still considered one of the deepest in the UFC.
  • Second to the previous point, Rampage was the last champion to successfully defend his title (I still don’t consider the Machida defence legit) – it’s a revolving door title.
  • Nerves. Jones is going to be facing his first defence and that can be a tough mental obstacle for any fighter to overcome.
My opinion? I think Jones is here to stay. In a lot of ways he reminds me of a bigger Georges St. Pierre; crisp stand-up, fantastic ground game, bigger than most guys in the division. He poses a lot of problems for most of the fighters in that division.
Let’s look at his upcoming fight against Rampage. Rampage has that one knock-out punch power that can ruin anyone’s night, and is always considered one of the top fighters in the division – his problem? He needs to get inside the massive reach of Jones; getting inside that 84.5″ reach is no easy task. His other problem? Rampage has zero ground game off his back – and Jones is almost guaranteed to put him there.
Despite my opinion, I think Jones faces a crossroads. It’s either his chance to become the next face of the UFC (which he is well on his way to becoming), or become the next Houston Alexander… well, maybe not that bad.
…And that is the last word.

AFC South QB's

It has just been announced on NFL.com that Peyton Manning will miss the season opener versus the Houston Texans. This news comes straight from Bill Polian speaking on ESPN radio.  Kerry Collins will be the starter.

Last night it was announced that the Jaguars had released former starting QB David Garrard.  This pushes Luke McCown into the starting role and makes Blaine Gabbert the recent first round draft pick the top back-up.

These moves could really shake up what the top of the division looks like this year.  The Houston Texans were an explosive offense last year but were held back by the second worst defense in the league (stats based on footballoutsiders.com advanced metrics).  They brought in Wade Phillips as defensive co-ordinator to change the mentality on defense. Phillips is known for his ability to turn around the fortunes of a defense, add to that the fact that they spent their first five draft picks on defense and get some key defenders back from last year.  Then there is the signing of Jonathan Joseph, one of the top CB’s in the league. If Houston can simply improve to a league average level on defense their offense should be able to carry them to the playoffs.

The only defense worse than the Texans last year was the Jaguars.  The Jags also finished 31st in pass D, the second straight year they were in the bottom five in pass D. They also failed to draft any defenders until the fourth round this year. This means alot of pressure will be placed on whoever ends up as the starting QB.  Somehow the Jags were still able to win 8 games and were even in position to make the playoffs late in the year if they could have won some division games.

As for Indy, the Manning injury is distracting from the fact that the Colts are in decline.  Last year they finished 10-6, good enough to take the division. But even with a healthy Manning they dropped their first two division games and didnt have the play the remainder of their division games until very late in the season when they had rounded into shape.  What you see when you watched Indy though was a team that played increasingly close games against tough competition.  The team never able to pull away from decent opponents and only pulling out the victory because of Mannings complete control over the game and ability to pull out any victory as long as his team is within one score.

The team is in decline because it has been a while since the Colts have had a decent draft.  They are a top heavy team, relying on a few superstars to show up and win them the games and carry the rest of the mediocre players.  As those superstars grow older this task becomes more difficult.  With a healthy and practicing Manning it would be extremely difficult to predict anyone but Indy to win the division.  But with this current squad and Manning sitting out Indy no longer feels like a powerhouse.  Remember in 2008 when Manning was not able to practice in prior to the season the team opened up only 3-4 before rallying to make the playoffs.  If something simliar happens to start this season I don’t think they will have the talent to turn it around.

Is this crazy talk, or will someone other than the Colts win the AFC South for only the third time since it\s creation in 2002?