BMW Championship Predictions: Dustin Johnson will defend at the BMW

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Dustin Johnson at the U.S. Open
HARTFORD, WI - JUNE 14: Dustin Johnson of the United States stands on the green during a practice round prior to the 2017 U.S. Open at Erin Hills on June 14, 2017 in Hartford, Wisconsin. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

BMW Championship Predictions

Venue

The 2017 BMW Championship will be played at Conway Farms Golf Club in Lake Forest, Illinois 30 miles outside Chicago. The last time the BMW was held here in 2015 Jason Day walked away with a victory.

Predictions

Winner

Dustin Johnson will walk away with his fifth win of the year. A boring pick, but Dustin has been the best player at times this year including three straight wins worldwide in February and March. He’s one of the hottest players in the world winning the Northern Trust and being in contention at TPC Boston before a final round 73 derailed his chances of victory. In 2015, DJ finished in the top 10 at the same golf course. Expect Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth to be close to the top again, but DJ will win and head to East Lake in first on the FedEx Cup points list.

Top 10

Paul Casey is your best bet to finish in the top five this week. He’s also been in the top five in the first two playoff events. He’s been a staple in the playoffs for the past several years and this year is no different. Somehow, he hasn’t recorded a win over those three years, but nobody has been more consistent in the playoffs recently that Casey. The Englishman will have his name near the top once again at Conway Farms.

Dark Horse

It’s weird calling Rickie Fowler a dark horse. But the trio that is Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, and Justin Thomas makes him feel like one. Rickie has a chance to have a big week in Forest Lake without the pressure of being in the spotlight. Let the three aforementioned get all the attention and watch Rickie quietly be around the lead on Sunday. In 2015, Fowler collected a top five finish in this event at this course. He has been knocking on the door a lot late in the season with four top 10s since missing the cut at the FedEx St. Jude Classic. He hasn’t finished outside the top 25 in that same time span.

Those are the predictions, now other story lines.

Three things to keep an eye on at Conway Farms

The FedEx Cup Playoffs always brings about conversations of the cutline after every tournament. After the BMW, only 30 will make it to the Tour Championship. There are some big names who wouldn’t be in that group of 30. The defending FedEx Cup champion, Rory McIlroy (51), is currently on the outside looking in. He needs more than just a solid week, he needs a big one in order to have a chance to defend at East Lake. Zach Johnson (54) will also need a huge week to play the final four rounds of the season. Both players finished in the top 15 at Conway Farms in 2015. Other notables on the outside looking in are Sergio Garcia (34) and Phil Mickelson (36). Jason Day is currently on the inside sitting at 28, but the Australian has struggled at times this season and might need a good week to solidify his spot in the top 30. He won the event in 2015, so he has a good relationship with the course.

The top 5 going into East Lake are in control of their own fate. They win at East Lake, they win $10 million and the FedEx Cup. Jon Rahm currently sits in 5th but Rickie Fowler, Paul Casey, and Marc Leishman sit right outside and a good week from any one of those guys could cause a shift in the top five.

Knock, knock. Hideki? Where are you? Currently sitting in fourth in the rankings, Hideki has been quite since his top 5 finish at the PGA Championship. He’s only had three rounds in the 60’s since his domination at the WGC-Bridgestone. He’s one of the streakiest players on tour and if he can get the putter rolling you might see him add to the fireworks as well.

 

 

 

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