Fantasy Football Mock Draft Breakdown: Part I

The Fantasy Football mock draft season is in full swing. I recently had my second opportunity to complete a twelve person mock draft from start to finish.  All drafters picked until completion, without anyone going on “auto-pilot.”  Mock drafts like these are invaluable in helping prepare for the fantasy season.  Not only was there a full slate of actual drafters, two other fantasy football analysts were in the room: Jamey Eisenberg from CBSSports.com and Adam Pfeifer from RotoCurve.com.  It was the second opportunity to draft with these great fantasy minds, and I learned a lot from our first mock draft.  For our second mock draft, I again examined each team by the following three criteria:

• Projected starting points per week based on 2015 scoring.
• Projected starting points per week based on 2016 CBSSports.com projections.
• My gut instinct on each team.

Who drafted the best running backs? Which team had the worst wide receivers? Who reached for a quarterback? Let’s start with reviewing the weakest team, and work our way up to the strongest.

Fantasy Football Mock Draft Breakdown: Part I

Team:  “Hi, I’m Stratos” 

Drafter: Kaitlyn (10^th Overall Pick)
Points per week based on 2015:  92.13 (12^th)
Points per week based on projections:  91.2 (9^th)
Randle Rating:  12^th

Skinny: The running backs are deep, but outside of Lamar Miller, all three are in a sharing situation. Antonio Gates, at the age of 36, is a bad pick as the only tight end on the roster. Both David Carr and Andy Dalton are underwhelming choices at quarterback. Both would be great backups, but neither can carry a fantasy team to the playoffs. The wide receivers are serviceable, but there is no real standout player in the group. Taking a closer look, is there a standout fantasy player at any position here?  Not a strong team at all.  None of the positions have a potential top five player. This team ranks as the lowest scoring starting lineup using the 2015 statistics and is my prediction for the last place finish in 2016.

Team:  “Loo”

Drafter: Michael (1^st Pick Overall)
Points per week based on 2015:  107.9 (1^st)
Points per week based on projections:  105.4 (1^st)
Randle Rating:  11^th

SKINNY:  Based on the 2015 results, this team is should be fantastic.  However, a lot of things broke right last year.  Stewart stayed healthy almost the entire season, and Baldwin had a huge career high in touchdowns.  Thirty-year-old Gary Barnidge was the number two fantasy tight end, and the Broncos finished as the best fantasy defense.  It is very difficult to see all of that good fortune repeating. Le’Veon Bell’s suspension really derails his team. The rankings have this team with the top starters both in 2015 and 2016, but that makes no sense. Picking three quarterbacks when you have Russell Wilson is a waste. The bench is very weak, and the starters have too many question marks.  I predict an 11^th overall finish.

Team:  @Max_Jenson10

Drafter: Max Jenson (5^th pick overall)
Points per week based on 2015:  97.9 (6^th)
Points per week based on projections:  92.9 (7^th)
Randle Rating:  10^th

SKINNY:  There is a lot to like about this team, but something gives me pause. Matt Ryan in round 14 is a great value, but he’s a cut below most quarterbacks.  His touchdown numbers (21, 28, 26 the last three years), are much lower than you need for a playoff fantasy team. Max does have solid wide receivers and a nice later round tight end. I love McCoy, Beckham, and Robinson, but the rest of the team raises red flags. The bench running backs are weak, and with Matt Jones as a starter, Max will certainly need one.  He should have selected a backup quarterback instead of Derrick Henry or C.J. Prosise.  I want to put this team higher, but my gut says 10^th.

Team:  @monkeyking42

Drafter:  David Maurice Jr.
Points per week based on 2015:  101.3 (3^rd)
Points per week based on projections: 94.3 (5^th)
Randle Rating:  9th

SKINNY: I hate drafting Rob Gronkowski in round one and this team proves why.  His wide receivers suffered because of it. Allen Hurns had a touchdown every ten catches and is due for a massive regression. Steve Smith is currently his second receiver when his Achilles looked like “shredded chicken” and his surgeon said it was one of the worst teams he’s ever seen.  That is what happens when you break the cardinal rule of fantasy football drafting:  don’t take a tight end and quarterback with your first four picks.  Unless his running backs have a great season and Rodgers is 4500+ yards and 40+ touchdowns, this will be a tough year. C.J. Anderson has yet to prove he can do it over the entire season, and that’s David’s third round pick. I hate to do this to David, but his team ranks 9^th overall.

Team:  Chops

Drafter: John (11^th pick overall)
Points per week based on 2015:  105.1 (2^nd)
Points per week based on projections:  89.9 (12^th)
Randle Ranking:  8th

SKINNY:  I really hate that Demaryius Thomas picks in round three.  Jordan Reed in round four is only justified with a top three tight end finish. When Javorius Allen is your starting running back, it’s a big problem. In a standard draft, Matt Forte’s value really takes a hit. Chops’ running backs are all matchup dependent, but will John know precisely when to play them?  I am not sold that A.J. Green will be a target hog. He was a very inconsistent receiver prior to losing all his supporting cast this year. Drew Brees and DeAndre Hopkins are a really strong pairing.  However, the running backs are simply too poor to bring this team out of the bottom group.  The projections aren’t too far off, Chops rates as 8th overall. 

Team:  “SD”

Drafter: Todd (3rd pick overall)
Points per week based on 2015:  94.6 (11th)
Points per week based on projections:  96.3 (3rd)
Randle Rating: 7th

SKINNY: Getting the best player in fantasy football at pick three is always a positive. Stacking Philip Rivers with his number one target in Keenan Allen is a smart move. This team started off great but needs a better running back in round three than Carlos Hyde.  Reports out of Chicago say Jeremy Langford will be in a time-share backfield.  The quarterback position is solid with a great round eight selection of Philip Rivers, followed by tremendous value with Tony Romo in round ten.  Travis Kelce is a top five tight end selected in round nine. The strength of this team is the wide receiver group, but he needs better running backs. I can only put team  SD in the middle of the pack.  Todd’s team ranks 7th overall.

You can continue here to Part II.