I get dozens of emails a week about fantasy, add that to the thousands of questions and messages, add that to the texts and the random people throughout the day that ask me about fantasy as well and you get the picture. I talk fantasy an awful lot. Try to imagine answering thousands of questions correctly every week. Well, that doesn’t happen. I get numerous ones wrong every single day. I know it, you know it and everyone knows it. Well, they should but I do not think some get it.
Go to fantasypros and look at the correct percentage. Now it is flawed because the site does not count some predictions if the masses all say it. So if you say Adrian Peterson will do great today but 80% say the same thing you do not get credit for it being right, weird I know. The best in the business is around the 70% mark and I, like many, are close. That also means that over 30% of the time I get it wrong. I accept that and it’s time everyone does.
Do Not Forget What it is All About, The Email and Week 5 Fantasy
I get this email from let’s call him Roger. It is not his real name and I thought about putting his government name on blast but I want to be a better person than that.
Well, Roger’s email goes like this…..
“Dear Ball Dunker,
Thanks for costing me my life savings. Jerk!!!!
I cannot believe I was dumb enough to believe ___ your redhead ____ told me. You might be the dumbest person alive. You ruined my life.
I hope you lose your job and your wife divorces you and takes you kid from you. So you will feel like I do right now because of listening to you.
Die!
Roger”
Roger, I am sorry you lost. It’s the unfortunate part of the game. I never want anyone to bet more than they can afford, especially their life savings. For the rest of the email you need to grow as a person and maybe a little anger management. Next time do not hit send.
Every week I say the same thing and I will again this week: Go with your gut. Read everything and anything you can and make the best decision you feel from what you gathered.
It is just a game and at the end of the day just try to have fun with it and enjoy it. That is really why we played this game years ago. So forget me and have a blast! Good luck as always, I hope we all win unless you are playing me of course.
Believes
Quarterbacks
Jay Cutler, Bears
Every defense will come into a game versus the Bears to stop Matt Forte. He faces the worst fantasy defense to opposing quarterbacks in the entire NFL. The Chiefs give up over 23 points per game and that should be right around where Cutler should finish.
Joe Flacco, Ravens
His starting tight end and go-to receiver will miss this game unless a miracle happens. The Browns will be focused on stopping running back Justin Forsett this week and that should open things up for Flacco to have a solid game. The Browns give up 19 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. This week it should be more.
Jameis Winston, Bucs
This will be one of those weeks where he puts it together and looks like the first pick in the draft. He will have the towers on the outside and use Charles Simms for the short ones. He is also going against a Jags defense that allows over 18 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Running Backs
Dion Lewis, Patriots
He is used in both the pass and run. He has great speed and has found a home with this team. He is part of the game plan and the Cowboys cannot stop the run normally. They give up over 25 fantasy points to running backs and this week it will be over 30.
TJ Yeldon, Jags
They have to even out their play calling and that mean get Yeldon more touches. He has not found his groove yet but had his best game last week. They will get him more involved now that he showed he can handle it. He will cut through that Bucs defense that gives up over 20 points per game to opposing backs.
Carlos Hyde, 49ers
The 49ers will try to keep the Giants offense off the field and run that clock as much as possible. The only way to do that is by setting the tone early and often with Hyde. They cannot put up points with the best of them so they have to drag out each position and protect the team from sacks. Everything points to Hyde being involved heavy.
Wide Receivers
Travis Benjamin, Browns
He is a big play dependent receiver but against the Ravens he should get a couple big plays. He is the only receiver the Browns really have to spread the defense and his targets and snap count are getting better every week.
Leonard Hankerson, Falcons
He has scored a touchdown in each of his last two games and has made it a battle for the wide receiver two position in Atlanta. The focus is on Julio Jones and that will not change. This will leave him with single coverage and a great chance to get you solid points this weekend. Redskins are missing both of their starting corners.
Rueben Randle, Giants
He has a great match-up and is still the number two passing option for a pass first offense. The 49ers give up over 27 fantasy points to opposing receivers. The focus will be on ODB, leaving Randle to eat it up.
Tight Ends
Jacob Tamme, Broncos
He is playing the Raiders who have been killed by tight ends for the last couple of weeks and they didn’t have Peyton Manning throwing them the ball. He is solid for the first time this year.
Zach Ertz, Eagles
Mister disappointment will finally score like many thought he would this year but just because he flies high this week doesn’t mean he is back. This is his week but I’m not sure he will have many more after.
Jason Witten, Cowboys
He is the trust blanket for a quarterback that cannot tell you how it felt to win a game it’s been that long. He is out of his league going against the Patriots but will have to throw the ball and throw it often.
Kickers
Brandon McManus, Broncos
Justin Tucker, Ravens
Cairo Santos, Chiefs
Defenses
New England Patriots
Atlanta Falcons
Green Bay Packers
Nots
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr, Raiders
He is playing his toughest match-up of the year and it will show across the board. More from this game coming up….
Colin Kaepernick, 49ers
If you thought he might be a good play this week stop thinking. If you still have him on your roster you might as well trade him for a bag of peanut M&M’s but I’m not sure you could get that for that BUM! I mean that as nice as possible.
Brandon Weeden, Cowboys
You gave Coach Hoodie two weeks to prepare for this guy. If you need more than that you are new to this and trust me do not play him.
Running Backs
Devonta Freeman, Falcons
The run is over and it was short like leprechauns. He is facing one of the stingiest run defenses in the league and Tevin Coleman is back to take away some carries. If you own him, sell him before Sunday, just saying.
Jeremy Hill, Bengals
It was awesome how he scored those three touchdowns last week. Well, that was last week. He might not get 50 yards total on Sunday and definitely not three touchdowns against this Seattle defense.
Isaiah Crowell, Browns
He is an on-again, off-again type of running back and this will be an off week. The Ravens are a serious defense against the run and Crowell is losing touches to Duke Johnson.
Wide Receivers
Amari Cooper, Raiders
He is a monster but the Broncos corners are as well. They are veterans that know this game too well for this rookie to get over on them. He is in for some on the job education this week.
Antonio Brown, Steelers
He was the main part of the playbook for Michael Vick’s first game as starter but this game will be much different. More time to learn the plays and Bryant coming back will hurt Brown’s value even more. Chargers are not bad against the pass but are bad versus the run. We will see Bell often and early.
Torrey Smith, 49ers
He is done till they figure out how to give the quarterback the time to get the ball downfield. That is not happening this weekend.
Tight Ends
Gary Barnidge, Browns
He is doing a great job this year and will probably finish as a TE1. But this week it is better for him to not be in your line-up at all.
Josh Hill, Saints
The Eagles are great at taking tight ends out of the game and Josh Hill is great at being taken out of the game. That is a great combination for all of us not to play him.
Jimmy Graham, Seahawks
Already owners hate having him and the hate will only grow this week. The Bengals are solid covering tight ends and that will not change this week.
Kickers
Dan Bailey, Cowboys
Matt Bryant, Falcons
Josh Brown, Giants
Defenses
Detroit Lions
St. Louis Rams
Buffalo Bills
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