The SEC regular season is now behind us, and after a significant amount of drama, intra-conference competition, and the national spotlight, the 2014 SEC Championship Game is upon us. The national discussion regarding this game is focused on Alabama’s presumed path to the inaugural edition of the College Football Playoff (CFP). Many consider an Alabama win imminent and give Missouri little chance to take home their first SEC championship. Are the Tigers being disrespected? Are they capable of beating a top-ranked Alabama team? Or are all the detractors correct about the inevitable outcome? Currently, the line sits at Alabama -14.5 almost across the board in Vegas. Let’s get beyond the narratives and storyline and take a close look at Saturday’s championship game.
Statistics:
So while statistics can lie, it is worth looking at what they represent. Offensively, Alabama is 16th nationally in total offense with an average of 489 yards (282 rushing/207 passing) and 36.5 points per game. Missouri is a little further behind, ranked 95th nationally with an average of 366 yards (190 rushing/176 passing) and 28.6 points per game. You could make the argument that the offensive philosophy and style of play produce a difference between the two offenses and there is merit to that argument, but there is a significant difference between the offensive production of these two teams this season.
Defensively, it’s no surprise that Alabama comes in 11th in the nation yielding 312 yards (92 rushing/220 passing) and 16.9 points per game. Their 92 yards per game rushing defense ranks second nationally. What might surprise people is that Missouri is not far behind. The Tigers rank 16th nationally in defense giving up 331 yards (127 rushing/204 passing) and 19.7 points per game. Defense is where the style of play probably makes the most difference. Alabama held leads during games more than Missouri, so teams are more likely to pass more against Alabama. Both of these defenses are very good and Missouri is probably underestimated on this side of the ball. Alabama again has an edge here, although not as much as on offense.
Special teams is a virtual push. Both teams are 14/21 on field goals this year and have very similar punting and return numbers. Alabama is probably a little bit better punting team and Missouri is probably a little bit better of a punt return team. I don’t see special teams factoring into this game very much.
Two other key statistics to look at, especially in games against two top teams, are turnovers and third down statistics. First, turnover margin. Missouri is +9 on the season (20th nationally) while Alabama is -2 on the season (tied for 72nd nationally). Winning the turnover battle is how a good team upsets a great team. Key for the Tigers will be possession on offense and keeping their defense off the field and rested. Missouri converts 44% of their third downs and Alabama gives up 36% of their opponents’ third down attempts. Conversely, Alabama converts 53% of their third downs and Missouri gives up 35% of their opponents’ third down attempts.
The statistics seem to indicate that the Crimson Tide have a significant advantage on offense, a slight edge on defense, and another significant edge with drive production/ball possession with their superior third down statistics. Missouri’s only statistically significant advantage is in the turnover margin category. Of course, turnovers can cancel a great deal of statistical advantages. For Missouri to score the upset, they must win the turnover battle.
Personnel:
Both teams have great coaches. Everyone knows about Nick Saban, but most people aren’t as familiar with Gary Pinkel. Pinkel is the all-time winningest coach at two different programs, including Missouri. The Tigers are playing in a conference championship for the fourth time since 2007. They’ve won the SEC East for two straight years. The man knows how to win. Most might disagree with me, but I think from a coaching staff perspective, this is a pretty even match-up as well.
Alabama has better skill players on offense. While Maty Mauk is good, he is inconsistent and the team’s championship hopes probably can’t be completely put on his shoulders. Blake Sims turned the momentum of the Iron Bowl last week with his play. Amari Cooper is head and shoulders above the Missouri receiving corps. Russell Hansbrough might be better than either Alabama running back, but going up against the Tide defense all night will take a toll on him. The offensive lines are pretty evenly matched as well. Adding Alabama’s personnel and third down statistics, and that is a recipe for Alabama to put together regular sustained drives that result in points.
Defensively, the Tide secondary is the real difference here. Both defensive lines are very good, and Missouri might have a slight advantage here. The linebacking corps is also fairly even, with Alabama having a slight advantage. The Tide secondary, however, is faster and more athletic than the Missouri secondary. Alabama can probably force Missouri to run the ball primarily and this will expose Missouri’s main personnel weakness: depth. The Tigers just don’t have the depth that Alabama has in almost any position. This will cause both Missouri units to wear down over the course of the night.
Common Opponents (four):
It’s always useful to compare common opponents. Interestingly, of the four common opponents, Missouri played three of the four games to very similar outcomes. Only the Texas A&M was a significantly different result. Also interestingly, Missouri played all four common opponents four or more weeks later than Alabama. Let’s take a look at the four common opponents between the two teams.
@ Alabama 42, Florida 21 (Week Four, September 20th)
Missouri 42, @ Florida 13 (Week Eight, October 18th)
Both teams fared similarly against Florida. The Gators were never able to get into a good rhythm, outside of the Georgia game, so I don’t think the time difference comes into play here. Both teams controlled the game throughout and exposed a weak Florida defense. Missouri relied heavily on the running game and Alabama had a well balanced offensive play sheet and did have several big plays. Alabama’s big plays and Missouri’s ability to play ball control offense on the road is a key take away here.
Alabama 34, @ Tennessee 20 (Week Nine, October 25th)
Missouri 29, @ Tennessee 21 (Week 13, November 22nd)
This is a game where the time difference does come into play. When Alabama traveled to Tennessee in October, the Vols made a quarterback change during the game and the Tennessee offense wasn’t the same as it was in November. When Missouri traveled to Knoxville, Tennessee was coming off two 40+ point outbursts and had tremendous program momentum and a rabid crowd. Again, Missouri handled the pressure on the road and their defense shut down a mobile, dual threat quarterback in Josh Dobbs. This ability to limit a player who is quite similar to Blake Sims should worry Tide fans. Alabama would be wise to look at Missouri’s defense game play against Tennessee.
Alabama 14, @ Arkansas 13 (Week Seven, October 11th)
@ Missouri 21, Arkansas 14 (Week 14, November 28th)
This is another game where the time difference is very important. Arkansas was a young team when Alabama travelled to Fayetteville in October and escaped with a one point win. The Razorbacks were a more mature and better team in late November. Missouri was also playing for the East Division crown in this game, facing increased pressure. This common opponent should also make Alabama fans a little less comfortable with the two-touchdown spread.
@ Alabama 59, Texas A&M 0 (Week 8, October 18th)
Missouri 34, @ Texas A&M 27 (Week 12, November 15th)
This is the one outlier from the common opponents. Alabama absolutely destroyed Texas A&M during the beginning of Texas A&M’s slide. Missouri’s secondary gave up some big passing plays and needed a fourth down stop on their own one-yard line to preserve the win. This game was played in poor weather and on the road. While it certainly shows the difference between Alabama and Missouri, it also shows Missouri’s ability to scrap and win tough games from tough positions. Which leads us to our next area.
Intangibles:
Alabama comes in with plenty of experience in big games and championships. The Crimson Tide know how to win. But they have largely struggled on the road this year. And as we talked about earlier, Missouri knows how to get the job done as well to the tune of four championship games in seven years with back-to-back SEC East Division titles and two straight championship games. Plus, the Tigers have been really good on the road this year. Both of their losses were embarrassing, but both of those were at home. Alabama is accustomed to being the favorite and Missouri savors the underdog role. Even as East Division leaders, the Tigers have been underdogs to Tennessee and Arkansas the last two weeks with each team finishing 6-6. Alabama is comfortable in neutral site big games. You could argue that Missouri plays down to its opponents much more than it plays up (see Georgia) but you could also say that Alabama has struggled against teams viewed as clearly inferior (see Arkansas). Missouri is comfortable on the road. Surprisingly, I think the intangible category is also pretty much a push.
In the end, Missouri only holds one substantial edge on Alabama and that’s turnover margin. I think the Tide comes in prepared for this game and their body of work over the season, with tough road games and big time spotlight following them all season, has them mentally ready for the game. That doesn’t mean Missouri won’t be ready, it just means that Missouri won’t be able to take advantage of a lot of Alabama miscues. And if Missouri isn’t able to take advantage of Alabama miscues, they will struggle to stay into this game. Alabama’s defense turns Missouri offense one-dimensional and the Tigers struggle to put together sustained drives. The Tide offense utilizes an athletic offensive line and frustrates the Missouri defensive line and linebackers with constant play-action and off-tackle and perimeter runs to negate the great Tiger pass rush. In the end, Alabama comes into Atlanta and does what they normally do: take care of business.
Prediction: Alabama 34, Missouri 17
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