The Florida Gators find themselves as the final hurdle between Florida State and a second straight undefeated regular season. The 11-0 Seminoles will play Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship in two weeks, but first must get through their second in-state rival in three weeks. If they win out, they will look to defend their crown in the first ever College Football Playoff.
The Gators would like nothing more than to spoil all of that in what will be the final game they are head coached by Will Muschamp. The Gators are a disappointing 6-4 this season under Muschamp, an all too common theme in the four years he has led the program.
The Gators are 28-20 overall and have suffered many gut-wrenching defeats in the last few years, but they are still firmly behind their coach. Many of them have expressed their public support of Muschamp and Dante Fowler Jr. even declared for the NFL, saying he came in with Muschamp, he will leave with him as well.
Florida came out and played inspired football in their first game since the news of their head coach’s firing, but that was against FCS opponent Eastern Kentucky. The Colonials are a very good FCS program, but the Gators will be going against much better competition this week. Florida has reason to be optimistic heading into this one. They have won three out of four at Doak Campbell Stadium, including being the last team to defeat Florida State in 2012 on their home field.
The Seminoles are vulnerable with their rush defense and that is a strength of the Gators. Florida starting quarterback Treon Harris is making just his fifth start, forcing offensive coordinator Kurt Roper to possibly focus on the ground game even more. Matt Jones and Kelvin Taylor have anchored an impressive rushing attack, as they showcased rushing for over 400 yards in their upset of Georgia. They are rushing for 195 yards per game.
The Gators should be looking to formulate a similar game-plan that Boston College ran in Tallahassee last weekend. As long as they move the chains with the rushing attack, they can try to grind the game out, keeping the Florida State offensive possessions to a minimum, thus trying to keep the score close until very late in the game. The Gators possess enough athletes on defense that they can hope for a late turnover that might change the game.
Florida State will look to jump on the Gators early and demoralize them. It’s been a tumultuous season and there is no way to judge how the Gators may handle adversity this late in the season with little to play for other than ruining the Seminoles season. That should provide plenty of motivation going in, but if they fall down a couple scores, it may feel like an insurmountable lead. They will also need to try and take as much pressure off Treon Harris as possible, so playing from behind is something the Gators must avoid.
Florida-Florida State Positional Breakdown
Here’s how it breaks down by position:
QUARTERBACK: SEMINOLES. Treon Harris is making just his fifth start for the Gators. The freshman has played well, completing 54% of his passes for 727 passing yard, a 6-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio and a 3-1 overall record as a starter. The touchdown to interception number is probably the most important as former starter Jeff Driskel had thrown ten interceptions this season prior to being replaced. On the other side of the field is the defending Heisman trophy winner Jameis Winston. Winston is completing 66% of his passes against ACC defenses for 3,125 yards and 19 touchdowns to 13 interceptions. He is always looking to make the big play, fit the ball into tight spaces, and could turn it over in the process. However, he is the more experienced quarterback and as long as he takes care of the ball, he gives Florida State the advantage at the position and the football game.
RUNNING BACK: GATORS. The Gators have relied on their running attack to carry their offense all season. They are rushing for 195 yards per game on the legs of Matt Jones, Kelvin Taylor, Brandon Powell, and now quarterback Treon Harris. Jones has carried the ball 157 times for 788 yards and six touchdowns. Taylor has carried it 99 times for 528 yards and six touchdowns as well. Jones is the more bruising back while Taylor can make people miss and change the pace of the game. Harris already has 256 yards and three touchdowns in limited action. Florida State has a two-headed monster of Dalvin Cook and Karlos Williams. Cook has carried it 100 times for 584 yards and seven touchdowns. Karlos Williams has also been very productive with 131 carries for 569 yards and ten touchdowns. Both men may be seeing the best front seven they have seen all year this week against the Gators. It’s a close battle, but the Gators have the slight edge.
WIDE RECEIVER/TIGHT END: SEMINOLES. Senior wide receiver Rashad Greene is playing his final home game and looking to put the finishing touches on a fantastic season. He’s caught 83 passes for 1,148 yards and five touchdowns. Jesus Wilson, Travis Rudolph, and tight end Nick O’Leary round out the receiving core. They provide Winston with enough threats to carve up a secondary late in the game. The Gators have been anchored by Demarcus Robinson, who has caught 44 passes for 714 yards and seven touchdowns. Quinton Dunbar, Latroy Pittman, Ahmad Fullwood, and Brandon Powell out of the back field are the other primary targets for freshmen quarterback Treon Harris. Better quarterback play would have increased all of the Gator wide receiver statistics because they are a very talented group, but Florida State has been more productive on the field.
OFFENSIVE LINE: SEMINOLES. Florida State lost some talent on the offensive line to the NFL, forcing them to turn to new starters. They have had difficulty consistently running the ball, rushing for only 125 yards per game. However, they have had great success in protecting Winston and allowing him to throw for 315 yards per game. The Gators offensive line has been brilliant with their rush blocking. They have opened up holes all season no matter how is carrying the ball. The 181 yards per game through the air is more of a reflection on the inconsistency at the quarterback position. The Gators offensive line has been good this season, but consistent lapses by players like D.J. Humpries were too much to ignore. This was a very close position battle, but the Seminoles have the slight advantage.
DEFENSIVE FRONT SEVEN: GATORS. The Gators defensive line is anchored by Dante Fowler, Jr and Bryan Cox, Jr on their very talented front seven. They have been getting good linebacker play out of Antonio Morrison, Neron Ball, and Michael Taylor. It’s been very difficult for opposing offenses to rush against them, forcing them into a one dimensional passing attack. The Seminole front seven is also very talented throughout led by Reggie Northcup, Terrance Smith, Eddie Goldman, Desmond Holland, DeMarcus Walker, and Jacob Pugh. They have been vulnerable against the rush, allowing 148 yards a game and 3.8 yards a carry. Their depth will be put to the test with a rotating Gator rushing attack that can keep fresh legs on the field.
SECONDARY: GATORS. This one is also very close, but the Gator secondary has improved greatly as the season has gone along and some of their young players gained more experience. Vernon Hargreaves III and Jalon Tabor are a shutdown tandem on the outside, Keanu Neal has played well at the safety position, and Duke Dawson has started to see increased playing time at the other safety. The Seminoles are also very talented with Nate Andrews, Tyler Hunter, Jalen Ramsey, P.J. Williams, Ronald Darby. They allow 230 yards a game on a 57% opposing quarterback completion percentage. They could be the most skilled unit Treon Harris has seen in his limited playing time, forcing the Gators to have an increased emphasis on the run. It’s never good when your entire secondary is among the leading tacklers on defense, you are giving up a lot of pass plays or long runs. That is the case right now for Florida State.
SPECIAL TEAMS: SEMINOLES. Roberto Aguayo gives FSU the advantage in the kicking game against almost anyone in the country. He is as good as any college kicker in the nation and will be playing on Sundays. He showed a kink in the armor last week vs BC, missing a kick sending him to 21 of 23 for the season, and he is unlikely to miss two weeks in a row. Kyle Christy is his equal in the punting game, giving the Gators a lethal weapon for field position. Christy routinely boots fifty plus yard punts, immediately flipping field position from anywhere on the field. The Gators have shown they are vulnerable on special teams, falling apart to allow South Carolina to block a field goal AND a punt late in their comeback win two weeks ago in Gainesville. Both Levonte Whitfield for Florida State and Andre Debose for Florida are capable of returning any kick for a touchdown. Debose is a sixth year senior making his final trip to Tallahassee and he will be looking for a chance to make a big play.Velez has stabilized the Gator kicking game, but still struggles with longer kicks. That could be a key factor late in the game.
MATCH-UP TO WATCH: WINSTON VS. THE GATOR SECONDARY. The Gator secondary has grown as the season has progressed and they will need Tabor and Dawson to play the best game of the season alongside Vargreaves who’s proven at different times during the season he can be a shutdown corner. The Florida front seven should be able to keep the Florida State rushing attack in check, forcing Winston to air it out against a talented young group. Winston has shown a tremendous ability to anticipate routes and have passes waiting for receivers as they make their break in-route. He will need to have pinpoint accuracy and know where his receivers are at all times to avoid costly mistakes this weekend. This will be a key match-up and one that is likely to directly effect the outcome of this one.
OVERALL ADVANTAGE: SEMINOLES. Florida State has won 27 games in a row, are playing at home, and have their entire season on the line in this game. They have every reason to be favored in this game. They have played down to their competition this year, but the Gators are as talented as any team the Seminoles have faced all year. Florida State will need to come out focused and ready and not allow the Gators to hang around until late in the game. The Gators have a bunch of players who were on the last team to beat the Seminoles. If they allow them to stay close too long, the Gator players may smell blood in the water and come together to end FSU’s perfect season.
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