Marc Bergevin pulled off a trade Tuesday which saw Travis Moen go to the Dallas Stars for Sergei Gonchar. It’s still far too early to pick a winner in this trade, but there are facts we can look at that can tell us who might win this in the future.
Habs get defenseman Sergei Gonchar, who is now 40 years old. Gonchar is way past his prime, and even past his twilight days. At 40, Gonchar doesn’t bring much value to many teams, the Montreal Canadiens included. Gonchar hasn’t been effective for quite some time now, unable to hit past 40 points since the 2009-10 season with the Pittsburgh Penguins. 20-30 points is going to be a high expectation for him now, if he manages to play a full season at that. He only played three games in 2013-14, and missing 109 games since 2008-09, due to an ankle injury, but is apparently healthy now. He still will not be able to play top four minutes, and if he does he will be useless. His defensive liabilty right now is comparable to Douglas Murray, more or less. Right now, in three games Gonchar carries a 48.8 CF% and a 50.8 FF%, which is below average. In the last five years, Gonchar has maintained a 5 on 5 50.8 CF% average, so it isn’t too far off. His oiSV%, which is his teams save percentage when he is on the ice, is a very bad 85%. Of course, three games is nowhere near a good sample to predict how his numbers will look over a full season, but given his age and hugely reduced skill, it’s safe to say that these numbers may be accurate, give or take a few points. Gonchar used to be known as one of the better powerplay quarterbacks but these days are over, and even he cannot help the Habs in this drought.
The best thing about Gonchar is that his contract ends this summer and will either retire or Montreal will tell him to take a hike, if his ankles can take it.
Stars get Travis Moen. Moen was one of the last players left from the Bob Gainey signings. Gainey originally signed him to a three year deal in the 2009 offseason, to which he was rewarded, somewhat, with a four year extension by Marc Bergevin in 2012. Moen has seriously regressed since those first three years though, mainly due to injuries and his style of play catching up to him. One of Moen’s strengths is being a decent penalty killer and his willingness to step up for his teammates. Moen falls at fourth overall in oiSV%, which is on ice save percentage, with an 88.4, excluding forwards with less than 400 penalty killing minutes over the last five seasons. Moen does rank second in total penalty killing minutes for forwards with 742, behind Tomas Plekanec, and fourth including defenseman. When you have a team like the Habs, who have one of the better prospect pipe lines and need to clear out the veterans to give the younger guys a shot, players like Moen are the first to go. Considering also the Habs have Brandon Prust and Dale Weise under contract still, there is no need for three players who bring the same skill sets. Moen has two more seasons under contract at $1.8 million per year, and this frees up the Habs of a contract by summer. Moen has horrible Corsi numbers throughout the first 10 games, again this cannot be used a full season sample but this is just for informational purposes. He has a CF% of 34.4%, FF% of 37.2, and while he has played the least amount of time with 78 minutes, he has a 5 on 5 oiSV% of 92.8, leading all forwards.
Like previously stated, it is too early to claim a winner in this deal, but with Gonchar becoming an UFA a year earlier than Moen, that is a win. Losing a character player in the organization is tough, but it isn’t going to make the Habs worse. Jiri Sekac is deserving enough to take the spot that he was splitting with Moen or Rene Bourque, who was sent down to the Hamilton Bulldogs to accommodate this move money wise. My initial gut feeling was that Gonchar was not a permanent acquisition and that there was more to this move. A second deal was maybe in the works to send Gonchar and another Habs player for another forward. This especially since both Jarred Tinordi and Nathan Beaulieu have been playing well and neither deserve to get sent down to the Bulldogs, but Tinordi has already been sent down. Gonchar could be here to stay until the summer, but I’m still weary of it, and I’m still expecting a deal with Gonchar packaged, with possibly David Desharnais (a guy can dream, right?). If Gonchar is indeed part of a package, then these two deals would be sweet.
Alexei Emelin + Sergei Gonchar for a roster player+ a real seventh defenseman, giving Beaulieu and Tinordi more playing time.
David Desharnais+Sergei Gonchar for a seventh defenseman/ bottom six forward+ prospect/draft picks in 2015/2016.
To wrap this up though, this deal feels okay. It’s nothing groundbreaking or that will shoot either team to the top of their respective standings. It’s not a Danny Briere for P.A. Parenteau and a draft pick deal. It’s one borderline useless player for another, sending one regressing PK specialist for a PP specialist who hasn’t been productive lately, but Montreal seems to be the winner right now with Gonchar’s contract ending a year earlier than Moen’s. Habs will miss Moen’s intangibles, but need to get their younger players such as Jiri Sekac, Sven Andrighetto, Jacob De La Rose, and more a shot at the big league. Just don’t expect much from Gonchar.
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