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Fantasy Catcher Rankings Part 1: 25-13

It is never too early to start with Fantasy Baseball rankings for 2015 (even in October). Today, we start off with part 1 of Fantasy Catcher Rankings.

In this article, we’re going to discuss catchers and my initial rankings for them (which are subject to change based on changes to projected playing time, free agency, trades, etc.

In doing this research factors that came into consideration were playing time, 2014 actual performance, 2014 BABIP versus career totals (for Batting Average), HR/FB rate in 2014 versus career (for Home Runs), Career Rates for Runs/PA, RBI/PA for R & RBI.

While they were not factored into the rankings, OBP & SLG projections are given. The OBP is the players projected AVG + their career BB Rate. The SLG is the players projected AVG plus career Isolated Power (ISO). The number next to the equal sign was determined by:

(Projected HR + Projected R + Projected RBI + Projected SB) * Projected AVG

25) Mike Zunino

Projection: .204/.253/.384 20 HR 53 RBI 52 R 0 SB = 25.5

If you are in a league that only counts Home Runs, I would say go for it. Otherwise, you would be advised to steer clear from Zunino. Granted he is only 23 and could get better but even a healthy improvement would leave AVG/OBP numbers with a lot to desire.

24) Chris Iannetta

Projection:  .217/.351/.395 13 HR 53 RBI 47 R 5 SB = 25.7

Ianneta hit .252 in 2014. Expecting a repeat of even this may be too much to ask as he had .329 BABIP last year compared to .283 for his career.  However, he should get his HR total back to double figures as his HR/FB rate (7.7%) was below career norms (12.6%). Either way, his value is torpedoed by limited playing time and a poor AVG.

23) John Jaso

Projection: .256/.378/.396 9 HR 44 RBI 49 R 4 SB =27.1

The only upsides with Jaso is his OBP which projects strongly due to 12.6% Career BB Rate and similar player history. Based on his baseball-reference page closest comparison through age 30 was Mike Stanley who was primarily part time player in his 20’s but had seven consecutive seasons of double figure HR after turning 30 (with at least 22 HR in four of those seasons).

If Jaso ever gets a chance to play full time, maybe he’s a sleeper to have a similar type breakout but even this is pure speculation. Based on what he’s actually done, there are issues related to playing time (404 PA in 2010 is career high), modest batting average and limited power displayed to this point.

22) Jason Castro

Projection: .232/.322/.388 13 HR 50 RBI 54 R 1 SB = 27.4

There is some power but not much else. Based on BABIP figure’s he’s closer to the .222 hitter he was last year instead of the .276 hitter he was in 2013. Based on baseball-reference page, his closest comparison so far is Miguel Olivo, which indicates to me that his ceiling is very low despite it being early in his career.

21) Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Projection:  .223/.313/.399 14 HR 57 RBI 57 R 0 SB = 28.5

Similar to Castro in that there is modest power potential but he’s likely to drain your batting average and upside is very limited.

20) Yasmani Grandal

Projection: .236/.374/.403 15 HR 54 RBI 50 R 4 SB = 29.1

Grandal has a very strong OBP projection but a very sub-standard AVG projection. 15 HR is pretty realistic expectation. However, even this one plus skill of power is neutralized by Petco Park.

19) Derek Norris

Projection: .252/.366/.398 11 HR 54 RBI 48 R 3 SB = 29.2

While I have him projected to have a slightly better AVG than the players below him, he loses some points due to limited playing time. Norris could be a good sleeper if this situation changes in the off-season.

His closest comparison is Andy Seminick. While he never hit for a high average, he did have a couple of seasons where he hit 24 HR. If Norris gets a full-time opportunity a similar AVG & 20 HR power is not out of the question.

18) Carlos Ruiz

Projection:  .257/.356/.392 8 HR 49 RBI 51 R 0 SB = 29.3

The current value between Ruiz & Norris is very similar even if the long-term ceiling for Norris is significantly higher.

17) Alex Avila

Projection: .218/.336/.379 12 HR 67 RBI 56 R 0 SB = 29.4

While his .218 AVG this year is very close to his actual ability, he gets the slight nod above Norris & Ruiz due to having a little bit more power in his bat.

16) Dioner Navarro

Projection: .254/.328/.374 11 HR 54 RBI 48 R 4 SB =29.7

If you are expecting a repeat of his .274 AVG from 2014, your expectations are already too high. He had a .301 BABIP (.278 career total) and looks to be a run of the mill .250 hitter who will barely break into double figures for HR (who also happens to be on the wrong side of 30).

15) Wilson Ramos

Projection: .267/.333/.429 13 HR 59 RBI 43 R 0 SB =30.8

The one thing deflating his ranking is that I’m not sold on his ability to stay healthy (his career high in PA is 435).

That being said, if this is the year he stays healthy, he could be a very solid under the radar pickup. His closest baseball-reference comparison is ex-Cub Jody Davis. While Davis never hit for a strong average, he did provide power (17-21 HR) from ages 27-30. If Ramos can stay healthy, power totals in this range is very realistic.

14) Kurt Suzuki

Projection:  .255/.319/.374 8 HR 61 RBI 52 R 0 SB = 30.9

Another player where expectations need to be tempered as a repeat of his .288 may be too much to ask. He also had a .310 BABIP (compared to .274 career total). Assuming this equalizes out, Suzuki will likely return to being a .250 hitter with modest at best power.

13) Evan Gattis

Projection: .246/.301/.480 22 HR 60 RBI 44 R 0 SB =31.0

The primary (but not only) reason Gattis is ranked this low is playing time (his 401 PA in 2014 was his career high). While I like his power, one area that concerns me (besides playing time) is combo of Low BB Rate/AVG brings his projected OBP of .301 which decreases his actual value.  My gut instinct is that he strikes me as a player whose performance would crater sooner rather than later (similar what happened to his ex-teammate Dan Uggla).

 

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All info, statistics, etc referenced found on either fangraphs.com or baseball-reference.com

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