It’s finally over. From worst in 2012 to first and World Series champions in 2013, the Boston Red Sox are back to worst again. After falling 10-6 to the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday, the Red Sox were officially mathematically eliminated from postseason contention. Boston currently sits at 63-83, 23.5 games out of first place in the American League East, a postion those same Orioles currently occupy. And while fans have been prepared for this moment since mid-July, the question still remains: how did it ever get so bad?
It starts with the Sox new policy of not giving long-term contracts to free agents, their own or otherwise. Though not a terrible policy in and of itself, the Red Sox simply took it too far. It was because of this policy that the Sox felt forced to trade ace Jon Lester at the deadline (though he may return to Boston in the offseason). While the players they let walk because of this policy were not irreplaceable, for the most part the Sox did not try to replace them at all, instead relying on in-house options and AJ Pierzynski to fill the new openings left by guys like Jarrod Saltalamacchia, soon to be 30, and Jacoby Ellsbury, now 31, and to replace their offensive production.
Instead, disaster struck. Pierzynski fit badly from the beginning. He hit poorly to start the season which, coupled with his notorious attitude, put him in the fans’ doghouse early on. Last season, Saltalamacchia hit .273 with 14 home runs and 65 RBI to lead Boston’s catching corps. Pierzynski, his replacement, was hitting just .254 with four homers and 31 RBI before being traded. Since then, the Sox have gotten even less out of their backstops. No catcher on the roster is hitting over .224, and rookie Christian Vazquez leads the group with a whopping 15 RBI.
Replacing Ellsbury proved to be too tall an order for the Red Sox. The Grady Sizemore experiment failed miserably, and Jackie Bradley Jr. continues to be an offensive black hole. While Bradley Jr.’s elite defense (Farrell believes he deserves a Gold Glove award) made Ellsbury expendable in the field, the Sox were unable to replicate his offensive production, especially on the basepaths. Last season Ellsbury led Boston with 52 stolen bases. This season Brock Holt leads the squad with just 12 so far. Mookie Betts might be the solution, but it is far too late for him to make any difference this season.
Boston also had problems defensively. Everyone knew that uber-prospect Xander Bogaerts would struggle defensively, but no one knew how much. Eventually, the Sox turned to Stephen Drew to take over at short and moved Bogaerts to third. This only made things worse. While Drew provided his usual solid defense at short, he was a nonfactor offensively. For Bogaerts, the switch essentially doomed his rookie campaign. He was just starting to play better defense at short, which he was still in the process of learning, and had raised his batting average to .296. Moving to third forced him to learn another position, and not only did his defense get even worse (he committed 10 errors in 44 games at third compared to nine in 85 games so far at short), but his offense suffered as well. By mid-August, he was hitting just .169 since the switch. Recently, after being allowed to move back to shortstop, his offense has improved significantly. His overall season average is relatively low at .237, but through 40 September at-bats, he has hit .375 with three homers and seven RBI.
Injuries compounded the problem. Will Middlebrooks was never healthy enough to contribute. Shane Victorino barely saw the field. Dustin Pedroia hasn’t been right all year, and is likely done for the season as he contemplates surgery. Even Mike Napoli saw his power numbers drop as he battled injury in the first half of the season. And the guys that stepped up offensively in 2013 – guys like Daniel Nava and Mike Carp – couldn’t seem to recapture their form.
The rotation likewise failed to live up to its 2013 showing, aside from Lester and John Lackey. Clay Buchholz was a train wreck for most of the season, and once again landed on the disabled list. Felix Doubront was an unqualified disaster, and his poor attitude after being moved to the bullpen forced the Sox to trade him. Jake Peavy won just one game before being traded to thee San Francisco Giants. Brandon Workman performed admirably at times but has fallen off in recent outings. The Red Sox made the same mistake they had with their offense: they relied too much on guys who performed well last season, who had histories that didn’t support those performances as part of a trend, repeating their numbers. They failed to upgrade the rotation. At least Matt Barnes looked good in his debut on Tuesday.
And that is really the crux of it. The Red Sox relied too much on what they had, and it backfired in a big way. It was a failure to add, a failure to adapt, a failure to avoid complacency. More than anything, however, it was a failure of policy. Being careful with big contracts and developing talent within the organization are both admirable goals and, on their faces, good ideas. But the Sox took it too far, and when you have as much money to play with as the Sox do, there is no reason to hoard it. The Red Sox intend to compete next season, but to do so, they must change the way they conduct their business. Some sort of middle ground exists and it must be found. Worst-to-first-to-worst-to-first would be a pretty fun ride, if they can pull it off.
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