Welcome to Puck Drop Preview 2014-15, where our hockey department gives you a detailed look at each team from around the NHL leading to the start of this hockey season and offers our insight and analysis. Makes sure to stick around until the end of the series, where we’ll offer our full predictions for the standings in each division, and eventually our collective LWOS 2014-15 Stanley Cup pick. You can check out all our articles on our Puck Drop Page. Up next is the 2014-15 Philadelphia Flyers.
Last Season:
The Philadelphia Flyers began 2013-14 with more headlines than any other team. Claude Giroux’s freak golfing accident started things off, and although he didn’t miss a single game, it was obvious the wrist was affecting his play. However, three games into the season Giroux’s wrist took a backseat to the firing of head coach Peter Laviolette and the installment of Craig Berube behind the bench.
The Laviolette firing came as a shock to many. If the Flyers were content with firing him after an 0-3 start, how much confidence did they really have in him before the season began? Berube now had to install his system and ideas on the fly, and quickly, as the Flyers continued to be outplayed for the early games of his coaching career.
During all the struggles the Flyers were having on the ice, none of it came in goal where Steve Mason was playing the best hockey of his career. General manager Paul Holmgren saw Mason play way above his career .907 save percentage (for two months) and decided right then and there to lock Mason up for a three year, $12.3 million deal. Once Mason received his new contract, the Flyers offense began scoring goals at the high rate Philly fans have seen in the past few seasons. Unfortunately, Mason almost immediately regressed back to the Steve Mason that everyone in Columbus is very familiar with.
After the Olympic break Giroux became the most unstoppable force in the NHL, scoring almost at will and putting the Flyers on his back for a strong push at the playoffs. The team was playing strongly but still needed some help along the blue line, so the Flyers traded a second round pick, and a minor leaguer, for Andrew MacDonald.
MacDonald came onto the team and played reasonably well, so Paul Holmgren once again decided now was the best time to extend MacDonald for a whopping six years and $30 million. For reference (via Capgeek.com) MacDonald’s last contract was for four years 2.2 million total. The Flyers were able to hold off the Blue Jackets and finish the season third in the Metropolitan, and staring down the Rangers in the first round of the post-season.
Steve Mason was out for the first three games of the series, so it was up to Ray Emery to punch a goalie in the face even though the other goalie didn’t want to fight play strongly in net. Emery had an up and down series, allowing ten goals but earning one win, until Mason replaced him late in the third game. Upon returning, Mason posted a .939 save percentage but it wasn’t enough, as the Flyers fell to the Rangers in seven games.
Offseason Changes:
The biggest change in the offseason came in the front office, when Holmgren was relieved of his duties as GM and “promoted” to president, while Ron Hextall was promoted from assistant GM to GM.
Hextall was Dean Lombardi’s assistant GM in Los Angeles as the Kings built their championship roster and should be able to help right the ship in Philly as they try to get out of many bad Holmgren contract decisions in the next few years.
Defenseman Nick Schultz was brought in to help out defensively from the Blue Jackets. Fan favorite Scott Hartnell was traded for R.J. Umberger, mostly because Umberger’s contract ends two years earlier than Hartnell’s. Umberger makes 250K less a year than Hartnell so the immediate cap relief isn’t there, but the Flyers only have Umberger signed until the 2016-17 season.
Defenseman Kimmo Timonen underwent surgery recently to remove blood clots found in his leg and in both lungs. You may remember Penguins back-up goaltender Tomas Vokoun underwent a similar surgery last year that caused him to miss nearly the entire 2013-2014 season. At 39 years old, everyone would understand if Timonen decided to retire with his future so uncertain, but there has been no official statement on the possibility for him to return this year, or at all.
Because of the uncertainty of Timonen, the Flyers went out and signed Michael Del Zotto to a one year, $1.3 million deal. Del Zotto comes to the Flyers looking to prove his worth after several underwhelming seasons defensively for the Rangers, who dealt him to Nashville last season for Kevin Klein. Del Zotto became an unrestricted free agent when the Predators declined to make him a qualifying offer in June, and he was still on the market when Timonen’s condition was announced in late August.
Line Projections:
R.J. Umberger – Claude Giroux – Jakub Voracek
Michael Raffl – Brayden Schenn- Wayne Simmonds
Jason Akeson – Sean Couturier – Matt Read
Zac Rinaldo – Vincent LeCavalier – Jay Rosehill
The Flyers are very unproven on the left wing, but they are very high on Raffl’s potential. The strength of the forward unit comes down the middle, and could be very tough if Lecavalier has a bounce back season after being demoted to the fourth line by Berube last year. Rosehill and Akeson will get their shots to prove they belong on the roster and, with most of the Flyers prospects not quite ready to challenge them, their jobs on the wing should be safe. Scott Laughton is one prospect who could throw a wrench into the plans and crack this roster, though we think he starts in the AHL.
Braydon Coburn – Mark Streit
Andrew MacDonald – Nicklas Grossmann
Luke Schenn – Michael Del Zotto/Nick Schultz
There is no beating around the bush, this team is going to be bad defensively. Shane Gostisbehere is waiting in the wings after bursting onto the scene for Union College at last year’s Frozen Four, but the struggles of young defensemen trying to make an immediate leap to the NHL is well documented and it will take something very big for him to be on the opening day roster. This defensive unit is going to be eaten alive by teams with great speed, which is becoming a very popular trait in the Metropolitan division and does not bode well for the Flyers.
Steve Mason
Ray Emery
Mason and Emery will be between the pipes yet again, which will not be good news for Flyers fans. Mason will most likely return to the Steve Mason that has a career .903 save percentage, right as his $4.1 million a year cap hit comes into play. Mason needs a team with a stronger defense around him to succeed, and it wouldn’t be a huge leap to say this team could very well lead the league in goals against.
Ray Emery is a year older. In the postseason, the Rangers exploited his inadequate lateral quickness and now that he will be 32 once the season starts, that’s not going to improve.
Players to watch:
Michael Raffl
The Flyers think Raffl has the potential to be a very good NHL forward. They need to be right because of how weak they are on the left side. Can Raffl come in and pick up some of the points that left with Hartnell? Is he going to be able to play top six minutes and at a top six level? Those are the two biggest questions surrounding him right now as he enters his second NHL season. It’s a tall order for him to deliver.
On the Rise:
- Sean Couturier
- Brayden Schenn
- Matt Read
Couturier has been playing some brilliant defensive hockey. Often tasked with shutting down the opponent’s top line, Couturier’s back-checking, shot blocking, and overall defensive prowess make him invaluable to a team with such a shoddy blue line. The time has now come for Couturier to show the offensive side of his game and start putting up points. Brandon Dubinsky is a great model for what Couturier should be aiming for this season. Dubinsky tallied 50 points last season and Couturier can realistically reach that this year, having had 39 last year.
Schenn is in his 3rd season and will be relied upon heavily to carry the load offensively when Giroux is not on the ice. He hit the 20 goal mark last year, and should be gunning for more this season. He and Couturier both have two years left on their current cap friendly deals and with the Flyers tight cap situation, they both might be fighting to stay on the team. Unless Hextall can shed some of the dead weight, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Flyers can only re-sign one of these players when the time comes.
Matt Read has been a 20 goal scorer in two out of his first three NHL seasons. The only time he didn’t score 20? The lockout year in which he had 11 goals in 42 games. Read has been steadily improving each season and there is no reason to think he can’t continue and possibly even eclipse 30 goals this season.
On the Decline:
- The entire defense
Apparently I did not harp on it enough, but the Flyers need big time help on defense. The two best defensive players on the roster, Chris Pronger and Kimmo Timonen, will more than likely never play hockey again and the cap situation is so upside down thanks to Holmgren that no relief is in sight. The Flyers are paying MacDonald five million dollars a season! Ryan McDonagh, Dan Hamhuis, and Anton Stralman are all making less against their team’s salary caps. The best case scenario for the Flyers is being in the top half of goals allowed, a realistic one is top five, and worst case is number one.
- Vincent Lecavalier
When the Flyers signed Lecavalier to a five-year contract with an AAV of $4.5 million, they did not expect that he would be playing on the fourth line by the end of his first year with the club. The 37 points Lecavalier scored last season were just five more than what he scored in the lockout shortened 2012-13 season for Tampa, despite playing 30 more games. Rumors circulated around the draft that the Flyers were trying to move Lecavalier’s contract, but were unable to do so. Given the Flyers cap situation, they would love to move the former Lightning captain on to another club, but it would appear that unless they retain a significant portion of his salary (something they were reportedly unwilling to do in the summer), moving him appears difficult. The Flyers must hope for a bounce back season from Lecavalier (similar to what former teammate Brad Richards accomplished for the Rangers last season) but at 34 years old, and with the injuries he’s suffered in recent years, Lecavalier has been declining for a while now.
Season Expectations:
The Flyers have a solid offense that will be in the top half in scoring. Giroux is looking like a mighty fine Hart trophy sleeper pick and this team will be a lot of fun to watch when they have the puck on their sticks.
The problem is, they won’t have the puck on their sticks enough because of how bad the defense and goaltending will be. Too many teams in the Metropolitan, and in the Eastern Conference, have gotten better for the Flyers to retain a playoff spot this year.
Fear not Flyers fans, help is on the way. Some young prospects should be ready next year, and Hextall will hopefully be pulling off salary dumps all season. It just doesn’t look good this year. It’s possible the Flyers can have another stretch like they did last year to propel them into the playoffs again, but anytime a team is paying Mason and MacDonald a combined $9.1 million per season, it’s smarter to expect the worst.
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