Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

Houston Dynamo Will Make the MLS Playoffs

Through 20 games, Houston Dynamo sit in 9th place in the Eastern Conference with 19 points. They are winless in their last 8 games, a stretch including includes 6 losses. They have won only once in their last 10 games. They’ve scored a paltry 22 goals, which isn’t quite worst in the league yet, but it sure is close. Defensively they’ve been like paper trying to hold back a rising tide, conceding 40 goals, 5 more than the Union who have the 2nd worst defensive record.

To put it simply, the Dynamo have been terrible this season.

Yet, just past the half-way point in the season, I’m predicting that they will make the MLS Playoffs. Here’s why:

First, never bet against a Dom Kinnear team. He’s been in similar positions before. This may be the year that his team finally falls short, but until proven otherwise, I’d stand with Kinnear. His team may not win the MLS Cup, but they’ll make the playoffs.

A quick look at the standings provides another cause for optimism. Despite their poor play, the Dynamo sit only 4 points out of the 5th playoff spot in the East, currently held by the New England Revolution, they of the 7 game losing streak.

The other teams between the Dynamo and a playoff spot are the Union, Crew, Revolution, and Fire. The Union have been unspectacular, and not convincing enough to make me confident in picking them to qualify. The Crew have been lackluster and unable to score goals. The Fire just got waxed by the Earthquakes. The Revs have lost 7 straight. Even the New York Red Bull, currently sitting 4th, are in danger of missing out. They’ve won 2 out of their last 10 matches. Their last 2 games being a 3-1 loss to the Union, and a 1-1 draw against the Earthquakes.

Without major moves, the Union, Crew, and Fire don’t appear to be real contenders.

Speaking of moves, the Dynamo just picked up USMNT star DeMarcus Beasley. While it remains to be seen how they’ll fit him into the line-up, he’s sure to provide a significant impact. In addition, there is a yet to be named “international player who played in the World Cup” who’s signing is said to be imminent.

Depending on who that signing is, it could provide another significant boost as the Dynamo look to pencil their name in a playoff position. This week on the “Extra-Time Radio” Podcast, Dynamo President Chris Canetti confirmed that the Dynamo had brought in a World Cup player, hoping to finish the deal on Friday. He also confirmed that the player is a central-midfielder.

Houston is scoring far less and allowing way more goals than they should. I don’t mean that as in “if they scored more and let less in they’d win more.” What I mean is that based on the shots their taking and where they’re taking them from, they should have put more balls in the net, and based on the shots they’re giving up and where they’re from, they should not have allowed as many goals.

Through 19 games, Houston had only scored 20 goals. However, based on the statistic Expected Goals, (calculates the amount of goals the average team or player should be expected to score based on shot type, assist type, and shot location) they should have scored 27.7 goals. On the flip side, the Dynamo conceded 38, but their expected goals against was only 30.2.

Had the shots fallen closer to what can be expected, the Dynamo could easily have at least 4 additional points (if not more) and be sitting in 4th or 5th, in the thick of the playoffs.

With Beasley joining and another big signing (based on the fact that said player was on a World Cup team), Houston should see improvements throughout their team. They won’t transform into a top team, but even minor improvements should see them in the fight for the playoffs.

Even the schedule is shaping up to give the Dynamo a chance. While only 7 of 14 remaining games are at home, they play 7 games against the Union, Revolution, Fire, Crew, and Red Bull, the 5 teams the Dynamo are fighting for playoff spots. Four of the 7 games against fellow contenders are at home, where the Dynamo are miles better than on the road.

The teams with the most favorable schedules remaining are the Revs and Fire, both of who have a game in hand on the Dynamo. However, the Revs have looked so bad it may not matter. The Fire have only won 3 games this year and just lost 5-1 to the Quakes, so they wouldn’t be my top bet.

Meanwhile, the Red Bulls play 9 of their 14 games against teams currently in playoff positions, and the Union have played a game more than their competition and play the top 3 teams in the East in 5 of their last 13 games.

We might be looking at one of the worst playoff teams ever. Two of these 6 teams will almost certainly make the playoffs, barring a miracle in Montreal. Historically it has taken 50 points has been the target for playoff contenders. Given how poor the East is this season, I could see both the 4th and 5th seed being closer to 45 points.

For my money, I think those 2 spots will be held by the Dynamo and whichever of the Revolution and Red Bull can figure out their problems first.

 

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