Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

Tony Romo: The Most Unfairly Treated Quarterback in NFL History

Tony Romo. When the name is said, what comes to mind–“choke artist”,  “collapses in the 4th quarter”, “hasn’t made it to the playoffs since 2009” or perhaps “only one playoff win in his career”?

These quotes have stuck with the 34-year-old quarterback and have been used interchangeably since the botched field goal snap against the Seattle Seahawks in the 2006 NFC Wild Card playoff game. Seven years later, that viewpoint hasn’t changed amongst many NFL fans.

The whole “Tony Romo chokes” narrative is nothing more than a bald-faced lie, and I’d like to disspell this and other BS narratives.  In order to do this, it is important to examine each of the criticisms one by one, with statistical analysis, research, and cold hard facts. Number don’t lie.

So without further ado, let’s debunk these unfair claims.

 

“Tony Romo can’t put up great numbers.”

Well said. I’d actually agree with this well written statement if it were only true.  Check out Romo’s overall numbers:

  • 208 touchdowns, 101 interceptions
  • 63.6 completion percentage
  • 95.8 passer rating – ranks 5th all time, and 4th among current quarterbacks

As comparison, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger (all QBs who started their careers around the same time as Romo), have a TD-INT comparison of 229-171, 221-104, and 219-122 in respective order.

In 2007, Romo put up 4,211 yards for a career high 36 touchdowns with a respectable 19 interceptions, a completion percentage of 64.4, and a passer rating of 97.4. Speaking of which, Romo has had 8 straight seasons of passer ratings of at least 90.0. The only active quarterback to have a better streak than that is Peyton Manning, who has had a passer rating of at least 90.0 for 10 straight years (though he missed the entire 2011 season due to injury, technically making Romo the only active QB to do this). That’s something Tom Brady and Drew Brees haven’t even done.

Romo’s 64.6 completion percentage is also 6th all time, and 4th among current NFL starters (only Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Peyton Manning respectively are ahead of him). In addition to this, he’s 42nd all time in passing yards (29,655), and 31st in touchdown passes (tied with legendary quarterback Kurt Warner with 208).

So much for that ridiculous theory, now onto the next.

“Tony Romo sucks in December.”

That’s not entirely accurate either.  Take a look at his stats at the end of the season compared to his peers’,  Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger (who he is often compared to) in the chart below (based on research from Pro-Football-Reference).

 

December Numbers: Eli, Rivers, Romo, And Big Ben

Quarterback Games W-L Cmp Att Yds Cmp% TD INT Rating
Eli Manning 45 21-24 792 1420 9,753 55.77 59 52 75.2
Philip Rivers 37 30-7 682 1087 8,337 62.74 66 20 98.9
Tony Romo 33 14-19 621 994 7,337 62.47 48 27 89.7
Ben Roethlisberger 40 27-13 710 1169 9,469 60.74 58 32 91.6

Surprised? For those of you who judge quarterbacks based on wins, Philip Rivers actually has the best record in December (30-7) among the 4 quarterbacks, despite Eli and Big Ben being the quarterbacks with the Super Bowl rings (On a side note, Rivers’ production and volume in December are ridiculously good, making him at the top of the league). While Big Ben and Rivers have a higher passer rating in the month of December, Romo still has a respectable one (89.7), easily higher than Eli Manning’s (75.2).

Since Romo still produces in December, yet his win-loss record is under .500. Why should the blame be solely placed on him for the Cowboys mediocre wins-loss record?  Does it have nothing to do with coaching? Do the other players not factor into the equation? Eli Manning has a losing record of 21-24 in the month of December, yet gets a pass because of his 2 Super Bowl rings? Roethlisberger has had stellar numbers in the month of December as well, the only low point being his completion percentage, which is still a respectable 60.74.

Moving on.

“Tony Romo sucks in the 4th quarter.”

Maybe you guys have a point. It’s clear from watching hours of film and looking at the total numbers, Tony Romo surely falls up short in the 4th quarter, right?

WRONG. Back to the charts.

4th Quarter Numbers: Eli, Rivers, Romo, And Big Ben

Quarterback Cmp Att Yds Cmp% TD INT Rating
Eli Manning 812 1388 9,860 58.5 78 56 80.3
Philip Rivers 676 1098 8,459 62.0 63 36 89.7
Tony Romo 660 1024 7,841 64.5 66 27 100.0
Ben Roethlisberger 720 1170 8,901 61.5 57 40 89.1

Boom. Mind blown. Bet you weren’t expecting Tony Romo to have really good stats in the 4th quarter, right? Romo’s 100.0 passer rating in this category is incredible, especially considering Eli, Rivers, and Big Ben can’t even get to 90.0.

“Tony Romo sucks when it’s a close game in the 4th quarter.”

Ok, NOW I’m completely certain Tony Romo shows his weakness when…wait, what?

4th Quarter (1-7 Point Game): Eli, Rivers, Romo, And Big Ben

Quarterback Cmp% TD INT Rating
Eli Manning 56.6 47 34 79.6
Philip Rivers 58.2 33 27 73.6
Tony Romo 62.2 43 23 95.4
Ben Roethlisberger 59.1 39 25 88.3

Boom. Mind blown once again. Not only has Tony Romo thrown the least amount of interceptions in a 1-7 point game in the 4th quarter, he also has the highest passer rating out of all the quarterbacks above.

While Eli Manning again has the highest amount of interceptions of the group, his volume isn’t as bad as Philip Rivers’ in this category. This ultimately is Rivers’ biggest weakness, mainly due to a poor stretch from 2010-2012 (especially 2012, where he threw 1 TD and 7 INT in the 4th quarter in a 1-7 point game. That’s awful.).

Big Ben comes the closest to Romo as the best in this category among the group, with 39 TD, 25 INT, and a good 88.3 passer rating. Incredibly, Romo is the only quarterback above with a completion percentage of at least 60.0 in this category.

 

“Tony Romo isn’t even clutch, he can’t lead a comeback or a comeback victory.”

It looks like we finally have a category that Tony Romo is weak in. Surely he comes up empty in the clutch. It’s not like I have evidence to prove otherwise.

Oh, wait. I do.

In The Clutch: Games Where Eli, Rivers, Romo, And Big Ben Had 4th Quarter Comebacks And Game Winning Drives

Quarterback Comebacks GW Drives Cmp% TD INT Rate
Eli Manning 25 30 61.8 51 24 91.7
Phillip Rivers 17 20 64.8 44 22 95.3
Tony Romo 20 23 66.3 35 21 93.3
Ben Roethlisberger 23 33 65.0 47 24 94.3

Yep, Tony Romo certainly isn’t clutch.

In addition to having the highest completion percentage of the 4 quarterbacks in his 4th quarter comebacks and game winning drives, Romo again has the fewest interceptions in his clutch games (though it’s because he played less games).

Rivers has the highest passer rating of the group, Eli has the highest TD volume, while Big Ben has the more “quality in quantity” volume. But more importantly, we can confirm that Tony Romo is in fact clutch. Especially impressive is that he led the NFL in 4th quarter comebacks in 2012 (5).

“Tony Romo doesn’t have as many comebacks and game winning drives as Eli Manning or Ben Roethlisberger.”

Aaron Rodgers only has 6 fourth quarter comebacks and 10 game winning drives in his entire career. What’s your point?

 

“Tony Romo sucks in the playoffs. He only has 1 playoff win.”

Indeed. Romo has one playoff win. That came in the 2009 season, a victory against the Philadelphia Eagles, where Romo had a 104.9 passer rating, with 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

In 4 total games in the postseason, Romo’s thrown 5 TDs to 2 INT, for a completion percentage of 57.6 and a passer rating of 79.9 (bogged down by his 2007 postseason where he had a 64.7 rating). Not exactly good, but it’s not the worst statistical postseason we’ve seen.

In addition, judging Romo as a postseason quarterback is ludicrous. The guy hasn’t even made it to the playoffs since 2009, and is a much better quarterback now than he was 4-5 years ago, so let’s hold off on calling him a playoff choker until he and the Cowboys actually gets back to playoffs.

Speaking of team…

“Tony Romo fails great teams/weapons.”

Right…

Tony Romo: Cowboys Offense And Defense Ranking: 2006-2013

Year Total Off Pass O Rush O Total Def Pass D Rush D
2006 5th 5th 13th 13th 24th 10th
2007 3rd 4th 17th 9th 13th 9th
2008 13th 9th 21st 8th 5th 12th
2009 2nd 6th 7th 9th 20th 4th
2010 7th 6th 16th 23rd 31st 12th
2011 11th 7th 18th 14th 23rd 7th
2012 6th 3rd 31st 19th 19th 22nd
2013 16th 14th 18th 32nd 30th 27th

Yep, those are some of the NFL’s greatest teams right there. Have you noticed that when Tony Romo had a top 10 defense, 2 of the 3 times he made it to the playoffs? That’s interesting.

Looking at the 2013 season, Romo overachieved. The Cowboys defense was historically horrible, yet Romo threw 31 TD and 10 INT, the same stat line as in 2011, except (more impressively) in 1 less game. And while Dez Bryant is a solid receiver, Romo for the most part has had terrible help from his teammates.

For example, take the 2013 Broncos-Cowboys game in which Denver won by a score of 51-48 in a classic quarterback duel between Romo and Peyton Manning. Romo completed 25/36 passes (69.4 completion percentage) for 506 yards, 5 touchdowns, 1 interception, and had a passer rating of 140.0. Romo actually outperformed Peyton himself in that game. The Broncos QB completed 33/42 passes (78.6 completion percentage) for 414 yards, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception, and a passer rating of 129.6.

So why aren’t we talking about how Tony Romo historically dominated in that game? Because the Dallas Cowboys defense was terrible enough to lose it for Romo, that’s why. But because the Cowboys QB is clearly a “proven choke artist”, we’re supposed to ignore incredible performances like these, right? Even though Romo threw that late interception to cost his team the victory, he wouldn’t have been in that position if the Cowboys defense actually did their job.

But they didn’t, and now the bullshit narrative continues to exist.

Romo has had excellent games like this all the time, and yet we, the fans of the NFL, continue to ignore it because Tony Romo does not have Super Bowl rings or more than one playoff win. I wasn’t aware football wasn’t a team sport! I didn’t know the quarterback is the only player allowed to earn a ring or a win! Now I know!

Last but certainly not least…

“Tony Romo will never be better than Troy Aikman!”

FUN FACT: Did you know Aikman was on way better teams with way better weapons than Romo? We’re talking Emmitt Smith, Michael Irvin, and a fantastic offensive line and defense that won 3 Super Bowls. While Aikman was solid in the postseason, his regular season numbers were far lower and didn’t really compare to the other elite quarterbacks of his time.

Aikman only passed for at least 20 touchdowns once in his career (1992, 23 TD), and had a TD-INT ratio of 165-141. That doesn’t compare well with quarterbacks such as Steve Young, Brett Favre, Dan Marino, John Elway, or even Drew Bledsoe. Aikman had a terrific completion percentage streak from 1991-1996, but after that he dropped off completely, never reaching 60.0 from 1997-2000, and throwing 54 TD to 43 INT in his last 4 years in the NFL.

At the end of the day though, its an unfair comparison to Romo. Yes, Aikman won three Super Bowls and I don’t want to diminish that.  You can’t take that away from the early/mid 90s Cowboys.  However, its an unfair standard to judge Romo by.  Aikman had one of the best running backs of all-time on his team, one of the best offensive lines ever, and a historically great wide receiver around him.  Romo’s never had those kind of weapons offensively.  Add in a dominant Dallas defence and again we see that Romo doesn’t get the same kind of help. Those Cowboy teams were exactly that great teams, they were never about just one player.

The bottom line is that great teams win Super Bowls, not one person.  The greatness of a team should be defined by Championships, but the greatness of a player should not be diminished by the lack of one.  No quarterback has ever single-handedly won a Championship, it takes a Super Bowl calibre team, and to this point in his career Romo has not been surrounded by that level of talent in Dallas.  Just see the charts above for proof.

 

The less we pay attention to fabricated narratives, the more we appreciate Tony Romo as a great quarterback. While I’d put at least Peyton, Brady, Brees, Rodgers and Big Ben over him, I think Romo is a terrific player (better than Eli and maybe Philip Rivers) that does not get the credit he deserves, and is practically the reason Dallas isn’t 0-16 all the time. Maybe right now he isn’t HOF material quite yet, but I think in a few years he should be at his rate.

Consider that Romo also went undrafted and his rise from that to become a great quarterback is something that the media rarely, if ever talks about.  How many times did the media retell the story of Kurt Warner bagging groceries, or playing in the Arena League? Who doesn’t know that Tom Brady was a sixth round draft pick?  These stories are told over and over, but the story of overcoming the odds is almost never told when it comes to Tony Romo, instead its a different yarn that the talking heads spin for us.  That’s the real problem here, the media is quick to blame Romo for every fault, but rarely if ever, do we hear the national media speak about the good things he has accomplished, and if they do it always comes with the asterisk of being a “choker” or “not clutch” that we’ve debunked above.

So don’t believe the narrative. Look outside the box and at a hidden gem of a quarterback.

 

 

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(Stats via pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, and nfl.com)

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