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Slanted Sabr : Counterpoint – N.L. Predictions.

Earlier this week, Nicolas Stellini brought you his predictions for the National League, Today will be our first counter point article as I will be bringing you my own N.L. predictions. We may agree on some , but I assure you we feel differently on most. Nicolas’s picks are in parentheses..

 

Best Bullpen – Atlanta Braves. (L.A. Dodgers)

It is hard to argue against the Dodgers on this one, but already a week into the season and Brian Wilson has been shelled and put on the DL For the sake of argument I’ll go with the Atlanta Braves on this one. Last year the Braves bullpen had the best ERA in the majors for the 7th consecutive year. That doesn’t happen on accident.

Obviously most of the talk will be about star closer Craig Kimbrel and his insane stats – 361 punch outs, 123 hits allowed and a 0.902 WHIP in just 227 career innings. The Braves have done a marvelous job surrounding him with a great supporting cast. Anthony Varvaro, David Carpenter, Jordan Waldan and left hander Luis Avilan are all above average relievers that all contribute to the Braves having a dominating bullpen.

 

Best Rotation – Washington Nationals. (Washington Nationals)

I simply can’t argue with Nicolas on this selection. It seems that every year pundits and talking heads have the Nationals ranked as the best rotation. This year I can really see that happening. Doug Fister has started the season on the DL, however when he comes back the top four in that rotation goes as follows – Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez, Doug Fister. That is just plain nasty.

I have well documented my love for Doug Fister and his ground ball pounding pitching style which should translate quite well to the National League. Factor slanted sabr logoDoug into a staff that finished just slightly behind the Dodgers in 2013 in ERA, and the Washington staff should be well on their way to claiming that the best rotation in the National League. The Dodgers are very close, but the Nationals get the edge in my book.

 

MVP – Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals (Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks)

This is basically another coin flip between three candidates in my opinion. Goldschmidt, Andrew McCuthchen and Molina will probably all finish in the top five in MVP voting. Yadier plays a much more demanding position and has such an effect over the Cardinals pitching staff that even if his offensive numbers aren’t on par with the other guys, he should be right at the top of the MVP race.

Molina has posted WAR totals of 5.6, 6.1 and 4.4 the past 3 years and has a career slash line of .284/.339./.404. What really stands out for me when I look at Molina’s offensive numbers are his wRC+ values the past 3 years, 134,139 and 126. He is already considered the best catcher and game manager in baseball today, and he has proven he can be an offensive threat as well. Molina will claim the MVP in 2014.

 

CY Young – Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins. (Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals)

I would legitimately be shocked if somebody other than Fernandez won the Cy Young this year, including Clayton Kershaw and Adam Wainwright. Fernandez is the complete package and in only his 2nd year, looks to be the best pitcher in the game. He is one of the few guys in the league that fans should stop what they are doing and watch him pitch every 5th day. Watching him pitch on opening day was a true honor and I fell further in love with Jose and the energy and excitement he brings to the game.

Fernandez may have the best off speed pitches in the game today, he made the Rockies mostly look like fools on Monday night while earning his club the opening day victory. Jose averages nearly 95 MPH with his fastball and throws his curve ball at around the 82 MPH mark. In his Monday night start, Jose threw one of the nastiest pitches I have ever seen to Troy Tulowitski on Monday night. 

Mercy. If Fernandez pitches remotely close to how well he did in 2013 and opening day 2014, he will have no problem competing for the Cy Young in 2014. (credit to fangraphs.com for the GIF used above)

 

Rookie of the Year – Oscar Taveras, St.Louis Cardinals (Mike Olt, Chicago Cubs)

This is a little harder for me to pick because both of my preseason picks are starting the season in the Minor Leagues. Oscar Taveras of the Cardinals and Archie Bradley of the Diamondbacks both failed to make their major league clubs out of spring training, but as we have seen before that may have been a planned move. Look no farther than Wil Myers last year for proof of that.

Once Taveras makes it to the big leagues he should have a big impact on the Cardinals and should be at the top of a National League rookie class that leaves a lot to be desired. I actually really like the pick Nicolas made for rookie of the year and Olt may end up being near the top of the list if Taveras and Bradley both remain in the minor leagues for the majority of the season.

 

Manager of the Year – Matt Williams, Washington Nationals (Ron Roenicke, Milwaukee Brewers)

Matt Williams got put into a pretty comfy spot when he took over for Davey Johnson and was handed the reigns to a potential World Series bound team. Johnson was considered more of a players manager while Matt Williams has a little bit of fire and edge to him and has already put his stamp on the team, He batted Bryce Harper 6th in the Nationals game yesterday. Williams will have a firm grip on this Nationals team and as long as his pitching rotation stays healthy, his team will excel.

 

Most disappointing team – Cincinnati Reds. (Cincinnati Reds)

Hard to argue anybody other than the Reds here. Cincinnati is in a bit of a transition after firing Dusty Baker in the off season and replacing him with Bryan Price. The Reds also lost some key pieces in Shin Soo Choo and Bronson Arroyo. Not to mention that Aroldis Chapman took a wicked liner off his dome in spring training and will miss a portion of the season and the Reds are already far behind the 8-ball in a very competitive National League Central division. I’m not sure that many picked the Reds to make or flirt with the postseason this year, and I think they may finish as far back as 4th in the Central.

 

WAR Leader – Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee Brewers. (David Wright, New York Mets)

Carlos Gomez is such a fun player to watch, but lost in all of his antics and base running adventures is the fact that he is a solid player on both sides of the ball. Gomez is an elite defender who accounted for 38 defensive runs saved in 2013. He also holds his own offensively as well. In 2013 Gomez was responsible for a 130 wRC+ while slashing .284/.338/.506 and stealing 40 bases. Gomez also was at the top of the National League WAR leaders in 2013 with a 7.6 WAR.

He may be a little goofy and get under the skin of opposing players, but you will be hard pressed to find a more underrated player than Gomez. And thankfully the WAR metric tends to show the true value of a player and his all around game. Gomez will finish around the 8.0 WAR mark and be at the top of the National League in 2014.

 

World Series Bound – Washington Nationals. (Washington Nationals)

It feels like I have picked the Nationals to win the National League for many years in a row. I guess at some point that prediction has to come true right? This has to be the year that the Nationals finally get over that hump and make it to the fall classic.

 

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