Besides a few years where they made the conference finals in the 1990’s and early 2000’s, the Toronto Maple Leafs haven’t had any success since 1967. Last season was the first in nearly a decade since they made the playoffs, and gave fans hope for the first time in too long. Naturally, after the success the team had (almost defeating the heavily favoured Boston Bruins in seven games in the first round) expectations were higher heading into this season. While there have been some great stretches where the team has shown promise, this season has largely been a disappointing follow up.
Just several weeks ago, the Leafs were sitting in second in their division, comfortably in a playoff spot. However, following a theme that has plagued the team this season, they have lost three in a row, and are 4-5-1 in their last 10 games. This record, while maybe understandable midseason, is unacceptable down the stretch run, the most critical point of the entire season. Now the team is precariously holding onto a spot, only three points inside the playoffs.
There are a variety of reasons the team has put together a so-so year. Many injuries, including to key summer acquisition Dave Bolland and star number one goalie Jonathan Bernier, a terrible penalty kill, and poor puck possession have all contributed to the team’s mediocrity. The most alarming of the team’s issues is the poor puck possession numbers and penalty kill. That is why if the Leafs miss the playoffs this season, the axe should fall on Head Coach Randy Carlyle.
Carlyle has coached the team for almost three seasons now. While he was an accomplished player (winning the Norris Trophy in 1981 with the Pittsburgh Penguins) in addition to a winning coach (leading the Anaheim Ducks to the Stanley Cup in 2007) it is clear the system he has implemented is failing, improperly utilizing the talents of the players on his team.
Since Randy Carlyle was hired as coach shortly after the trade deadline in 2011-12, the team’s Shots Against/Game and Shot Differential/Game has risen each year. SA/G has increased from 30, to 33, before reaching a high of 36.2 this season (according to sportingcharts.com and hockeyanalysis.com). Similarly, SD/G has increased from -2.4 in 2011/12, -4.3 (2012/13), and finally to -8.3 this season. The Penalty Kill has also regressed, falling from a top of the league 87.9% in 2012-13 to 28th at 78.3% this season. While the players need to take some of the blame, they play within Coach Carlyle’s system, and it is apparent that whatever he is telling them is not working.
It is well known that Randy Carlyle likes his teams to play a tough, defensive game. However, one look at the above numbers make it clear that the team is poor defensively. Not only this, but many puzzling player personnel decisions have been made by the team this season. Playing goons Colton Orr and Frazer McLaren every game instead of more reliable players like Carter Ashton or Jerry D’amigo is an example. Sitting skilled you defenseman Jake Gardiner, despite his strong puck moving skills the team desperately needed. His seemingly distrustful and intense relationship with last season’s starter, James Reimer is another. The fact that he is so critical and biased against Reimer, despite the fact he was the biggest reason the team even made the playoffs the year before is completely baffling.
Although Randy Carlyle has had success as both a player and coach, his style of coaching is not the right fit for this team. The best coaches will tweak their system depending on the players and the situation. A good example of a coach like this is Team Canada men’s hockey head coach Mike Babcock. After it became clear Canada was struggling to score at the 2014 Sochi Games, Babcock tweaked his system, from one that fuelled a high octane offense that relied on speed, skill and puck possession, to one that used those same skills to shut down opponents. The result? A Gold medal for Canada.
Carlyle is old fashioned, stuck in his ways with little flexibility in the way he coaches. With a team of fast, skilled players like Phil Kessel, Nazem Kadri, Jake Gardiner, and Morgan Rielly, this team needs a coach that will bring out the skills of these core players, rather than stick them in a system that they don’t belong in.
The Leafs may make the playoffs this year, or they may not. Regardless, Randy Carlyle is not the right coach for this team going forward. Although it is unlikely he is fired if the team misses the playoffs, he should at least be on the hot seat. If they do miss the playoffs, then Dave Nonis should waste no time in beginning the search for a new coach. The opportunity to contend only lasts for so long.
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