Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

The Wins Column: Late Goals, Upsets, MLS Future Realignment

Earlier this week, Major League Soccer released both its 2012 Roster and Competition Rules and Regulations. The most notable change is the introduction of the away goals rule in two-legged playoff series so as to be consistent with general FIFA practices.

But judging by the 2014 season’s opening weekend, there is one rule change that I would not mind seeing in the future. Call me crazy, call it a big departure from FIFA standards, but I’m just throwing it out there: get rid of stoppage time.

In eight matches this past weekend, there were a staggering five goals scored in the 90th minute or later. In total, these goals earned four points for the teams that scored them, and took away three points from the teams that conceded them. That’s seven points changing hands because of second half stoppage time goals. In a single weekend.

To put that into perspective, the entire MLS season goes for 33 rounds. Let’s assume that in each round one team wins on a second half stoppage time goal and another salvages a draw off of one. With this assumption, 231 points will have changed hands in second half stoppage time over the course of the whole season. Divide that by 19 clubs, and each club will, on average, have 12 of their points earned or lost in second half stoppage time.

Those twelve points are a fifth of the total earned by the 2013 Supporter’s Shield winning New York Red Bulls. They are also half of the total earned by second-from-bottom Chivas USA (I ignored the 16 points earned by bottom club D.C. United, just because that total will rarely be equalled in the future).

In short, there are two arguments at hand. The first involves maintaining the parity the league has utilized as a marketing tool. The second involves getting players to always be at their best, rather than hitting the switch with seconds to spare. I’ll admit, the San Jose Earthquakes were captivating in 2012 with their “Goonies Never Say Die” ability to claw back at the death. But things have gotten way too far out of hand.

I want two halves of exactly 45 minutes. I want players who are injured to get off the field, regardless if they are walking or being dragged. I want referees to have a field day with time wasters. But most of all, I want to get my money’s worth when I pay for 90 minutes of professional soccer. If all I’m getting is 3 to 5 minutes of unorganized kicking frenzies, today’s ticket prices will not cut it for me.

 So how about those New York Red Bulls, eh?

The Red Bulls, who I picked exactly one week ago to win the MLS Cup, were absolutely dreadful in their season opener in British Columbia, losing 4-1 to the Vancouver Whitecaps. Thierry Henry and Jamison Olave weren’t playing in order to rest their old, turf-despising legs, but Tim Cahill was hung out to dry by his teammates. The big 3 in New York will be rested extensively this year, and the rest of the team will, for the sake of my prediction, have to pick up the slack.

My others projected pace setters in the East didn’t fare well either. Kansas City fell victim to the Seattle Sounders on (you guessed it) a stoppage time winner, while the kids from New England got hammered 4-1 down in Houston.

At least it’s still early. This is actually reminiscent of a story I wrote in September when the Philadelphia 76ers shocked the world and started their season 3-0. As of Sunday night, they’ve lost 16 straight and are right back into the lottery mix. Hopefully my projected Eastern conference powers can pull a “reverse Sixers” in the coming weeks. If they haven’t by the All-Star break, I’ll be getting nervous.

The start of the new season marked a quiet period in terms of expansion talk.

TIME TO START TALKING AGAIN!!! Sorry Mr. Garber.

The commissioner quickly got tired of expansion questions during a live Q&A session on the league’s website on Tuesday afternoon. But they just kept on coming. And to just about every question, he responded with either a “we’ve been in talks with the ownership group” or a “a team can work so long as our four pillars are in place”.

After the Q&A session ended, Sports Illustrated soccer writer Grant Wahl tweeted that if MLS plans to expand to 24 teams (the number that has been thrown around by league officials for some time now), he expects Atlanta and San Antonio to be the final two franchises awarded. Wahl originally had Minneapolis as his third franchise, but was promptly reminded that only two spots remain, assuming David Beckham’s team in Miami eventually gets off the ground.

The big questions that have come up in previous expansion seasons have always been scheduling and conference alignment. The only things that can be predicted with the league’s schedule these days are that it gets longer and more unbalanced with every passing season. Conference alignment is a little bit easier to predict though.

From where I see it, a 24 team league can be organized in two ways: either three conferences of eight teams each, or two conferences of 12 teams each, with each conference split up into two divisions of six. Again, how a regular and post season would work in either of those scenarios is beyond me. But as for who would be in which conference or division, I’ll give it a shot here, using Wahl’s assumption of Atlanta and San Antonio rounding out the league.

OPTION 1: Three Conferences

1. EAST- Atlanta, D.C., Miami, New England, New York City FC, New York Red Bulls, Orlando, Philadelphia

2. CENTRAL- Chicago, Columbus, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, Montreal, San Antonio, Toronto

3. WEST- Chivas (L.A. somethings), Colorado, L.A. Galaxy, Portland, Salt Lake City, San Jose, Seattle, Vancouver

OPTION 2: Two Conferences, Four Divisions

1. EAST

Northeast- Columbus, Montreal, New England, New York City FC, New York Red Bulls, Toronto

Southeast- Atlanta, Chicago, D.C., Miami, Orlando, Philadelphia

2. WEST

Pacific- Chivas (L.A. somethings), L.A. Galaxy, Portland, San Jose, Seattle, Vancouver

Midwest- Colorado, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, Salt Lake City, San Antonio

That concludes this week’s Wins Column folks! Make sure to take a look at my Jersey Week series in case you missed it, hopefully it will tide you over to next week’s Wins Column. Catch you on the flipside!

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