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BCS Preview: The Sugar Bowl

From New Orleans, it’s the BCS- I mean, the Sugar Bowl. (Sorry, I saw Alabama involved and jumped to conclusions a bit). Will Oklahoma put up more of a fight against the Tide than Notre Dame did a year ago?

Jan. 2, 8:30pm EST, ESPN

When Oklahoma Has The Ball

Junior Blake Bell played the majority of the season at quarterback, and put up better numbers than freshman Trevor Knight. At 6’6″ and 252 pounds, Bell brings an unusual skill set to the position, as he’s not only mobile but very hard to bring down. (While some credit obviously has to go to the offensive line, Bell’s size is probably also a part of why he was sacked just 14 times). He also threw for 1,648 yards and 12 TDs. Jalen Saunders and Sterling Shepard led the team in receiving with 654 and 540 yards respectively, and six TDs each. Although the Sooners’ 99th-ranked passing game is rather anemic, the ground game is fairly strong and ranked 18th nationally. Brennan Clay and Damien Williams combined for 1,466 yards and 13 TDs, and three other players (including Bell) had at least 250 rushing yards.

Alabama’s fifth-ranked defense shouldn’t have a difficult time shutting down Oklahoma, particularly the passing game. The Tide rolled (sorry) over LSU and Texas A&M, both programs with far more polished offenses. Safety Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix (yes, that really is his name) is a ballhawk- if Bell throws in his direction, he needs to be incredibly accurate and put the ball where only his receiver can get it. The strength of the Alabama defense has been the linebacking corps, where all four of the starters from last year’s national championship squad returned this season. They can blitz, stop the run, and drop into coverage as needed. As a team, the Tide defense is allowing just over 11 points per game, and their red zone defense is the third-best in the country.

When Alabama Has The Ball

A.J. McCarron put up his usual eye-popping stats again this season: 2,676 yards, completing 67.6% of his passes, 26 TDs, five INTs. He’s got five receivers with at least 200 yards and two TDs, but the primary targets are Amari Cooper (615 yards, four TDs) and Kevin Norwood (523 yards, seven TDs). On the ground, sophomore T.J. Yeldon (1,163 yards, 13TDs) is the man Oklahoma needs to be most concerned with, but fellow sophomore Kenyan Drake has emerged as a nice complement to Yeldon. The offensive line, despite returning just two starters from 2012, has performed well; McCarron was sacked just ten times all season.

Oklahoma ranks 14th nationally in total defense, but just 28th against the run. That’s actually a very respectable showing when you consider that only four starters returned from 2012, but I’m not sure they’re up to the task of slowing the Tide’s offense. If Alabama’s passing game were weak, and the Sooners could put extra men in the box frequently, they might be able to slow Yeldon and Drake. But McCarron is one of the country’s more polished passers, and a defense designed to stop the run will get burned through the air regularly. Another thing Oklahoma needs to improve upon is their 113th-ranked red zone defense. Alabama moves the ball well enough that they will get inside the 20 fairly often. The Sooners will have to be able to stop them there, or at least hold them to field goals.

Prediction:

Oklahoma is taking an average of 6.33 penalties per game. They cannot be that undisciplined against the Tide. One aspect of the game that I do see going in Oklahoma’s favor is special teams- we all know about Alabama’s issues in the kicking game, going back a few years now. But I’ve said it before, Nick Saban is a phenomenal recruiter, and he has at least two or three quality guys at every position. They’re deep, they’re talented, they’re disciplined, and I don’t think this year’s Oklahoma team can stop them. Alabama 52, Oklahoma 20

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