Break out the Tostitos, it’s Central Florida versus Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl, the first-ever BCS bowl for both teams.
New Year’s Day, 8:30pm EST, ESPN
When UCF Has The Ball
Central Florida may be the closest thing we have to a BCS-buster this season. This is the Knights’ first year as an automatic qualifier, having joined the American Athletic Conference (formerly the Big East). Junior quarterback Blake Bortles has certainly worked his way up draft boards this fall. It’s unknown at this point whether Bortles plans to enter the draft, but if he does, he could even be the first quarterback selected. He’s an accomplished passer (3,280 yards, 22 TDs, seven INTs) who’s also the team’s third-leading rusher, with 179 yards and five TDs. Eight receivers have at least one receiving TD, and five different guys have three or more. J.J. Worton leads the team with 7 TDs, but Rannell Hall has the most catches (53) and yards (773). Sophomore Breshad Perriman is also a legitimate receiving threat for UCF. On the ground, Miami transfer Storm Johnson has been the bell cow with 193 carries, 1,015 yards, and 11 TDs. William Stanback is a distant second in yardage, with just 410, but has a healthy six TDs. The offensive line has performed well, although Bortles was sacked 21 times.
Baylor ranks 17th nationally in total defense, and 19th in points against. Bortles is probably one of the most mobile quarterbacks they’ve faced this season and will need to be kept in check. The fact that he has six TDs with relatively few rushing yards means that the Bears will especially want to keep an eye on him in the red zone; fortunately for Baylor, they have the twelfth-best red zone defense in the country. It will be interesting to see how the Knights are able to perform against one of the best defenses they’ve seen. Watch for Eddie Lackey, a first-team All-Big XII linebacker.
When Baylor Has The Ball
Baylor’s offense is impressive, to say the least. They lead the nation in points scored, averaging 53.3 per game, and average over 600 yards of offense. Granted, they played some weak opponents both in and out of conference, but this is not a team to be taken lightly. Junior quarterback Bryce Petty threw for 3,844 yards and 30TDs, throwing just TWO picks along the way and completing 61.8% of his passes. He’s also responsible for 11 of the Bears’ 43 rushing scores, tied for the team lead with 1,000-yard rusher Lache Seastrunk. Four other running backs (Shock Linwood, Glasco Martin, Devin Chafin and Seth Russell) have combined for 1,944 yards and 21 TDs. Of course, Art Briles’ offenses aren’t known for being solely ground-and-pound. Antwan Goodley leads the team in receiving with 1,319 yards and 13 TDs, followed by Tevin Reese (824 yards, eight TDs, despite missing the Bears’ last four games with a dislocated wrist; he is expected to play in the Fiesta Bowl), and Levi Norwood (670 yards, seven TDs). In fact, Baylor top five pass catchers all average over 15 yards per catch. Not exactly a West Coast dink-and-dunk passing game.
UCF’s defensive statistics are very similar to Baylor’s. Since the two offenses also have a lot of similarities, the defensive game plans should as well. Petty, like Bortles, is quite mobile and will require extra attention. Putting fewer men in the box and going to a nickel or dime package to account for the Bears’ deep threats is risky, as Petty can take off himself or hand off to Seastrunk. Put extra guys in the box and Petty can and will go deep to any number of wideouts. Keep an eye on defensive tackle E.J. Dunston, a senior on what is a very young UCF defense.
Prediction:
I really like what this UCF team has done this season. They’ve come a long way in the last few years, and came very close to being unbeaten. They should be very good again next year, especially if Bortles returns. However, the big difference that I see between these two schools is the depth. It’s one thing to shut down one or two good running backs or receivers; it’s another thing when there are five guys at the position who have at least a few hundred yards and a couple of TDs. Baylor 48, UCF 23
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