It’s been a big week in the world of analytics, both for the Bills and for yours truly. In a week where the Bills hired Michael Lyons to head up the much talked about and much anticipated Analytic Department, I moved from being a ‘writer’ on this site to suddenly becoming an ‘analyst’ (although I have done nothing different). More importantly I took the step of finally buying my Pro Football Focus (PFF) premium package membership which promises me access to “PFF-only statistics and a look at some of the data [they] provide to the teams themselves”. This has been a long time coming having been a great admirer of PFF’s work over the last few years, especially as it’s a British company taking the lead in an American sport. With this in mind I thought I would look at the word “analytics” and find out what the Bills and I would be gaining from this new found ability to delve even deeper into the world of statistics.
Let me start by explaining a few things from the outset. I may have the inside track here as I have worked in the analytics field for over a decade. My life is based around these funny little numbers that are used to base everything from setting interest rates, to the ability to tell you what the 45th most popular girls name in the UK was in 2012 (for those who are interested, it was Jasmine). Statistics are used in every facet of our lives and most people don’t even realize that they are using them. American sports are virtually overflowing with stats, acronyms that are as confusing for the new fan as they are helpful for the initiated. Watch a baseball game and you will be continually doused with RBI’s and OBP’s. Basketball is saturated with DREB’s and BLK’s, football gets you TFL’s and FF’s. They obviously mean something to the fan but what do they mean to the decision makers? To what extent and in what directions are the analytics department going to delve?
The off-the-field uses are obvious. Firstly, the marketing strategy should always be based on statistical findings, the ability to find out what marketing tool reaches the most people, who those people are – are they the target audience? What do they want from the Bills as an organization, perhaps the creation of different vehicles for the advertisement of the Bills organization. A direct result of something like this could be the creation of a Bills television channel in the same mould as the soccer channels here in the UK – it would be a new way to get the Bills “out there”. Marketing and statistics go together hand-in-hand.
The success of current initiatives can be more accurately measured. For example the benefit of the Toronto games can be quantified in far more ways than just tickets sales. With this in mind maybe the Bills will look at the merchandise sales in that area and how the game played there has impacted thereon. Look at the general perception of the Bills in Toronto. With the expansion of the target audience, especially one who has a CFL team far closer to them, how are the Bills measuring the “buy in” from the fans there? I would hope they are taking steps to measure that venture and gaining as much as they can from it rather than just taking the money given to them by Rogers Communication.
Reviewing and improving the game day experience at the Ralph would be another target area for the analytic team and that would lead on to the bigger question, stadium modification vs new stadium construction. These are franchise changing and shaping decisions and analytics will provide information to aid the decision making process.
Heading on to the sport side of things, statistics could and should be used in the contract negotiation. The ability to more accurately quantify a player’s worth to the team and its success on the field will give the club extra leverage in negotiations and will enable the club to know when a player should be retained.
In the targeting of free agents and draft selections, statistics will give an extra layer of information to the front office, another quality check which should lessen the chances of error or in football terms selecting a bust. This is going on with the Bills as we speak; take the trade for Jerry Hughes for example. We see a player that is seen as a ‘bust’ in Indianapolis but has a distinctive skill set that can be utilized in such a way as to be successful. Indianapolis saw someone who was not productive, the Bills saw someone who just needed the right environment, the right scheme.
With the draft in mind stats can be used in the evaluation process from the first round down but it will be the ability to find diamonds later in the process or as undrafted free agents that will certainly be aided with the use of analytics. Again, finding the value in players who can produce on a situational basis.
Doug Marrone himself spoke of his use of analytics for in game decisions. Trends can be analysed not just for the Bills but for the league as a whole or for that week’s opponents. Their tendency to run certain plays in certain situations, the best way to counteract an opponent’s defence when they line up in certain formations or with specific personnel sets, success rates when enforcing a penalty or taking the down. This is not a new innovation, it’s something that’s been done since the formation of the game. However the progression of technology and the increasing professionalism of the players and coaching staff is increasing exponentially the sheer volume of information that can be processed and utilised.
In conclusion, this isn’t Moneyball, the Bills aren’t going to make decisions based solely on a set of numbers, they can’t replace the head coach with a computer. It doesn’t work that way. They have said time and again this will only provide yet another layer of information for the people concerned. However, this is a new era and any advantage gained is worth taking. I look forward to seeing where this initiative takes the Bills.
As for me, PFF will give me another layer of information I can use when writing these articles, however if I am honest I think I have been looking for an excuse to buy the package since it first drew my attention. Hopefully it will improve the end product but just like the Bills we will have to wait and see.
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