It’s the last week of October: a time of pumpkin-flavored, Halloween-frenzied bliss punctuated with vivid fall colors and even more vivid piles of leaves going un-raked on your front lawn. However, most importantly of all, for me and fellow hoops fanatics everywhere, it means that the tip-off to another season is nearly upon us. Instead of a full-blown season preview with detailed rankings and such (because let’s be honest, I’ll only be able to write so much before I pass out into a peaceful sleep while wearing my seasonal jack-o-lantern sweater), here are seven bold predictions of how this season will play out:
- The Philadelphia 76ers will pull a Charlotte Bobcats and win less than ten games.
GM Tim Hinkie is looking to build a new identity for the 76ers, and that starts from within. Unfortunately for Philly basketball fans, that means emulating a recent Drake hit song and starting from the bottom. It’s tough to take now, seeing a team intentionally tank their season for the prospect of a better tomorrow, but it also means that the Sixers will also have a plethora of draft picks in what looks to be the deepest crop of youngsters in the last five years. Expect this team to lose anywhere from 72-75 games and ship the likes of Evan Turner, Spencer Hawes and Thaddeus Young out of town by the trade deadline.
- The Milwaukee Bucks will surprise people and compete for a playoff spot.
A lot of pundits can’t decide what to make of their offseason moves, but the more I look at their projected roster, the more intrigued I am. Their backcourt is solid and, with the additions of steady vets Gary Neal and Luke Ridnour (who could very well take over the starting PG position from Brandon Knight at some point this year), it should like be a lot more consistent/less pouty than the Jennings/Ellis combo was last year. Larry Sanders give you defensive stability in the middle and Caron Butler can still give you decent minutes on the wing. The x-factor for me is O.J. Mayo – if he can learn to be a good player for more than twenty minutes at a time and give the Bucks consistent scoring, look for them to be in the hunt for the postseason come April.
- The Brooklyn Nets, and not the Chicago Bulls, will provide the Miami Heat with the toughest test in the Eastern Conference.
I get it. Everyone’s excited that Derrick Rose is back – and yes he has looked good during the preseason – but that Nets roster strikes way more fear into me than the Bulls’ one. This is a team that goes eight or nine men deep when everyone’s healthy, which will allow new coach Jason Kidd to give the likes of Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce time to rest during the regular season and (hopefully) start the playoffs with their batteries close to full capacity. Garnett will also be responsible for Deron Williams having a career rebirth this year. Sure, he’s still an elite-level talent, but all the showboating and finger-pointing will disappear with the Big Ticket breathing down his neck. If Kidd can put all the pieces together in time for the postseason, this team could be scary good.
- The Toronto Raptors will trade Rudy Gay and/or Kyle Lowry to possibly make a play for Andrew Wiggins.
It should be clear around the beginning of January if the Raptors will be a bubble team pushing for a playoff spot, or once again stuck in lottery limbo. If Gay doesn’t rebound from the awful offensive performance that he had last year (31% from the floor), Masai Ujiri won’t waste any time finding a more efficient solution to Toronto’s shooting woes from a season ago. Gay and his brother-from-another-mother Kyle Lowry are both in the last year of their contracts, so it’s time for both of them to step up or be forced to step out. I just don’t see the Raptors competing with a lot of the bigger, more physical teams in the East – look for both Gay and Lowry to be wearing new uniforms in March and Toronto to drop as close as they can to Andrew Wiggins’ potential landing spot.
- The Timberwolves supplant the Grizzlies as the West’s dark horse team.
Unfortunately for Grizzlies fans, their time as a contending officially ended with the firing of Lionel Hollins. Not only did he unite all of the diva personalities and get them to play as a cohesive unit (on most nights), he found a simple system that had brought them playoff success. Dave Joerger is an analytics guy and, while the league is trending more towards coaches and management with this sort of background, it will be a fragmenting change for the Grizz. On the flipside, enter the Minnesota Timberwolves. Their core pieces of Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love are (finally) healthy and have looked good in the preseason; new addition Kevin Martin and Nikola Pekovic should also be great. Add to that a strong bench that includes Chase Budinger, Derrick Williams and two good draft picks in Gorgui Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad, and you have a very deep, very athletic team. If health doesn’t become an issue like it has been the past two seasons, Minnesota could be a team no one wants to face. Ever.
- The year’s biggest disappoint? The New York Knicks.
The situation in New York proves that Carmelo Anthony is not the kind of player that can lead you to an NBA title. Sure, he can fill it up offensively, but he doesn’t defend well – on the block or on the perimeter – and his inability to get his teammates involved has hurt the Knicks’ effectiveness as something more than just a team that wins because they make a lot of threes. Tyson Chandler is starting to decline, Amare Stoudemire will be even less effective now that he overly jacked from the weight room, and apart from Iman Shumpert, they have no one that can lock down the other team’s outside scorers. Look for the Knicks to struggle and replace Mike Woodson with George Karl (if he’s willing) before season’s end.
- The haters needn’t bother – Miami will get their three-peat in decisive fashion.
Another offseason, another summer that saw Miami added more talented pieces to a burgeoning dynasty. They’re basically the same team that won it all last year, only more enhanced with the high-potential, low-risk adds of Michael Beasley and Greg Oden. I also think they’ll be extremely motivated to get their third championship in a row, seeing as this will most likely be the last stand for this group of players. Ray Allen and Shane Battier are talking retirement, and it’s a contract year for the Big Three. If Spoelstra can keep Wade’s minutes down and have him be healthy come playoff time, they should be a cinch to make it to the top of the NBA mountain again. As a side bar, I’ll also add that I think LeBron stays in Miami past this year, along with Wade. A fatter contract might lure Chris Bosh out of town, but all the cap space will give Miami a chance to reload with a new set of role players à la San Antonio and try to make sure LeBron wins not five, not six, not seven …
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