Kansas State is the last unbeaten team in the Big 12, and the first team this year to have any kind of blueprint as far as beating West Virginia. The Mountaineers were dominating everyone they played (at least on offense) until being stomped last week by Texas Tech 49-14.
The Kansas State Offense: Just five starters returned on the Wildcats’ offense this year, and only two of those were on the offensive line, yet quarterback Collin Klein is emerging as a darkhorse Heisman Trophy candidate. After a 2011 campaign in which he rushed for 1,141 yards and 27 TDs, Klein has over 500 rushing yards and 10 TDs through six games. But containing Klein in the pocket will only help West Virginia’s cause so much. An inconsistent passer last season, Klein’s completion percentage thus far is a respectable 66.9%. That number could very well go up this weekend after he faces a porous West Virginia secondary that has continually been lit up by good passing offenses this season.
The Kansas State Defense: The Wildcats defense has yet to allow more than 21 points in any game this season, and is averaging a stingy 16.5 points against per game. They held Oklahoma to 19 points, by far the fewest the Sooners have scored in a game this year. In other words, this is a good defense, and aside from their last game, West Virginia has a pretty good offense. The Wildcats stop the run well, but West Virginia likes to pass more anyway. The Mountaineers haven’t run the ball with any kind of consistency all season, so getting pressure on Geno Smith and forcing him to get rid of the ball quickly is key for Kansas State in this game. They can not allow him to be comfortable in the pocket and to have the time for him to check through all his progressions with his multitude of receivers in the Air Raid offence.
The West Virginia Offense: Until last week, Geno Smith was averaging nearly 400 passing yards per game, and had a completion percentage of just over 81%. Texas Tech had the top-ranked pass defense in the nation going into last week’s game, but even in a beatdown West Virginia managed 275 yards and a TD through the air. It takes a top-notch secondary like the Red Raiders’ to even slow that attack down, never mind actually stopping it. The Mountaineers’ rushing stats took a hit last week too, and don’t look for them to improve this week; the Wildcats are allowing just 118.7 rushing yards per game. They’re allowing considerably more yardage in the passing game, however, which bodes with for Smith and WRs Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. Getting Andrew Buie and the running game going early will be difficult, but would help tremendously.
The West Virginia Defense: Sometimes a good defense can get overlooked due to the gaudy numbers put up by their offensive teammates; unfortunately for Mountaineer fans, the defense has allowed opposing offenses to put up some pretty impressive numbers as well. Sometimes, though, there is a good reason that a team’s offence gets all the publicity. The latter is the case here as the Mountainers’ defence just is not very good. West Virginia scored a combined 118 points in their Week 5 and 6 wins over Baylor and Texas, but they allowed a total of 108 points in those two games as well- and then came last week’s debacle. Texas Tech ran for a respectable 168 yards, but QB Seth Doege passed for 499 (and 6 TDs). K-State QB Collin Klein may be a run-first guy, but he’s a legitimate passing threat as well. The third-worst pass defense in the country is going to have to be better this week.
Prediction: I think this is going to be yet another close, high-scoring affair involving the Mountaineers, but I see them on the losing end this time. Kansas State 48, West Virginia 42.
