Is MLB’s Playoff System Broken?

Turn up the hearing aid Bud, not everyone in Major League Baseball is enamored with the new playoff format which debuted this year.  Just ask the Atlanta Braves or Texas Rangers how they feel about “qualifying for the postseason” only to have their postseason destiny determined in a single-game playoff.

Bug Selig says the new Wildcard Playoff increases the reward for winning the division championship, but does it really?  This year, two division winners in the A.L. and two in the N.L. received only one extra day of rest compared to the wildcard playoff winners and had only three days off between the end of the regular season and the start of the ALDS.  Both wildcard playoff winners were given a day off before commencing their ALDS against division winning clubs, despite the logic that a wildcard team playing two games in a row would be at a far greater disadvantage than their division champion opponent.

Another strong criticism is that the new system allows even weaker teams to qualify for the playoffs, particularly when adjustments for schedule inequalities are considered.  MLB has an unbalanced schedule, with division opponents playing each other 18 times, and non-division league opponents playing each other between five to ten times, plus interleague play.  Despite the A’s and Rangers playing in the same division, Oakland played 3 more games against the Yankees and two more against the Orioles this year than the Rangers.  The Rangers played six interleague games against the 107-loss Houston Astros, while the A’s got three each against the contending Giants and Dodgers.

Although purely hypothetical, when strength of schedule (number of games against stronger opponents, as defined by the opponents’ actual win-loss record and runs scored and allowed) is factored in, the results have suggested that the ninth, tenth and eleventh best teams in MLB, based on adjusted records, advanced directly to the ALDS because they won weak divisions, while Atlanta was forced to play the Wildcard Playoff despite having the 2^nd best adjusted record in the National League.  The adjusted standings also suggest that St. Louis qualified for the playoffs despite an adjusted win total of about 82, sixth-best in the N.L.   But even without adjusting records, it is clear that the current playoff system prejudices clubs based purely on their division placement, as the seventh best team in the A.L. (Detroit) made the playoffs because they won the A.L. Central, while the fifth and sixth best teams (Tampa Bay and the Angels) didn’t make the playoffs.

A better setup from MLB would be to adopt a system of two, eight-team divisions in each league.  This would allow interleague play to be limited to designated blocks during the schedule, as it was under the system used until the end of this year.  This would also allow each team in a division to play precisely the same schedule of opponents, which would greatly reduce the level of imbalance seen in the current MLB schedule.  There would be a mandatory four days between the end of the regular season and the start of the Division Series, during which time the second and third place teams from each division would playoff in a best of three series.   The two winning teams of this best-of-three series would move on to play their respective division champions in a best of five ALDS.  This system would not only guarantee each wildcard team a home game, it would allow the division winners to have their starting rotation fully rested for the ALDS, a far greater reward than that offered under the current system.  Unfortunately, adding two more expansion franchises simply will not happen anytime in the near future.  Miami and Tampa Bay are already in terrible baseball markets, and few cities in North America have the stadium or demographics required to host an MLB franchise.

But don’t expect MLB to abandon the idea of a Wildcard Playoff anytime soon.  The value of the Wildcard Playoff is not simply a dramatic single game that draws decent TV ratings, it is the fact that it gives more teams the illusion of being close to qualifying for playoff ball.  Take 2012 for example, when with one week left in the regular season, four teams were within three games of a playoff spot.  The illusion of being able to make the playoffs has been successfully parlayed by other major sports leagues, notably the NHL, into increased media coverage, fan interest and attendance.  Although different from the system employed by the NHL, MLB’s new playoff system undoubtedly was created to achieve these same goals.

MLB can also use the extra playoff spot to placate clubs with middle and lower-class payrolls, who no doubt want a salary cap system in place to create more parity between rich and poor clubs.  Now, MLB can say to such clubs that there is more opportunity to make the playoffs and earn additional revenue. However, from 2007 to 2011, 12 of the 20 American League teams that made the playoffs had payrolls in excess of $110 million, and 14 of 20 teams had payrolls above $92 million.  The reality is that, with a few rare exceptions, playoff baseball remains the domain of rich clubs and two measly, one-game playoff spots will do very little to change that or to bring more parity to Major League Baseball.

Follow me on Twitter: @MaxWarnerMLB

4 Comments

1. 

   Ben Kerr

   October 13, 2012 at 10:59 am

   I don’t buy this adjusted win total B.S.

   Lets look at Run Differential, the Cardinals were a better team than even their record showed. They had one of the best run differentials in baseball. And now they are showing again, why this team is for real.

   The Cardinals Offence is just stacked, even without Pujols, Berkman and Furcal.

   Reply
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     Max Warner

     October 13, 2012 at 1:57 pm

     Ben, I agree that there are limitations with adjusted win-loss records. And the Cards are having success now that they’re in the playoffs, but should they have been there in the first place? The Cards had 32 games against 100 loss clubs in their own division, and then had 9 interleague games against the Indians and Royals, both 90-plus loss clubs. The Cards built their great run differential on an easy schedule that was a function of their lousy division. By contrast, Atlanta had 13 games against 100 loss clubs and then had 15 interleague games against NYY, Tampa and Baltimore, all 90-plus win clubs (the Cards had no interleague games against 90-plus win clubs). Atlanta had 25 games against Washington and San Fran, both 94-plus win clubs, the Cards had 13 games against those teams. My point is that the schedule is extremely unbalanced under the current system and it’s hardly fair that the Braves (who finished with 6 more wins that the Cards) are given the same, one-game playoff opportunity as a team which made the playoffs on a vastly easier schedule. That’s why I think we need to re-org the divisions and use a best of three opening series.

     Reply
2. 

   Casey J

   October 14, 2012 at 5:40 am

   Nope! I agree with Ben, you can wish-wash garbage however you want Ben, but until you come up with a more valid argument, keep to yourself. I would have expected a Baseball writer to know one thing. That thing is pitching! The blue jays, stank, stunk, stinked, for ages but they had Doctor Roy, Now lets says you are going on your theory against Ben and the Jays record reaks galore, worse than my wife’s inner thighs, But when St louis played them Doc was pitching and they scored that many runs. Now I know Doc is on the team front the city of brotherly love. (obviously your kind of city) but Ben is right. Go Ben, you tell him, I hope the Cards win it all to prove this point!

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3. 

   Nick

   February 1, 2013 at 7:10 pm

   I know this is an OLD post, but I wanted to say that I feel that MLB should expand their playoffs this is a weird system but they need more teams to keep people interested why not shorten the season a bit and have more teams play, it’ll be more exciting and the more post seasons teams make the more regular season attendance will rise. If this makes any sense.

   Reply