You can point to all the advanced stats you like when it comes to the San Francisco 49ers when trying to prove how they will certainly regress in Jim Harbaugh’s second season as head coach. And that is fine, but it ignores one basic fact – the 49ers were already a solid team loaded with veteran talent before the arrival of Harbaugh. They were just under the leadership of a coach who was completely in over his head and it showed in their results. So while San Fran may have looked like a 5-6 win team each season, in reality they had the talent to be an 8-9 win team.
In Harbaugh’s first season with the 9ers they added legitimate talents to the defense, which helped them over the top. First round draft pick Aldon Smith is a valuable pass rusher and Carlos Rodgers produced a huge season at cornerback.
The stats analysis is not completely wrong because there is truth to the arguments, but I think if you go there you are starting off on the wrong foot. The 49ers should be expected to regress somewhat because of one simple fact – it is tough to win consistently in the NFL without strong quarterback play. Look at the pre-Flacco Ravens. They are known as the preeminent defense of the 2000’s in the NFL (Steelers may have a case), but they only made the playoffs four times in eight seasons before the arrival of Joe Flacco. It would be tough for the 49ers to be more dominant than the Ravens were on the defensive side of the ball. We should be able to agree that because of a change in luck and a tougher schedule the 49ers win total should decrease. That doesn’t mean they can’t have a terrific season again though.
Two things that can’t be overlooked when forecasting the 49ers is their post-season success and their offensive upgrades. Let’s start with the latter first. All the weapons the 49ers have acquired at receiver and running back won’t make them a prolific offense, but it will make them experts at situational football and will give Harbaugh tons of options when it comes to play calling. The 49ers now posses a power back (Frank Gore), an all purpose back (Kendall Hunter), a short yardage back (Brandon Jacobs), and an elusive speed machine (LaMichael James). There is no denying their versatility at receiver either where names like Manningham and Moss provide serious upgrades to the team’s most talent-deprived position.
The last factor is how well the 49ers performed in the playoffs. Many people remember the 49ers as last year’s best team, but I think this is far from the truth. From beginning to end there were no teams that were even close to the Packers and Saints as a one-two punch. And it was the 49ers who took down the Saints in their first playoff game in spectacular fashion. The following week they played a pretty tight game against the eventual Super Bowl champ (and Packers defeater) New York Giants, coming up short in OT. The 49ers got some fortunate results early in the 2011 season, but by the end of the season they improved into a legitimate threat to any team in the league. This makes sense, too.
Last year was the lockout-shortened season and coach Harbaugh had only a few weeks to implement his system prior to the start of the season. This year he has had a full training camp and the results will show. The 49ers who return all 11 starters on defense will again be tough and battling for the division title in 2012.The reason I can’t forecast the 49ers to take down the NFC West for certain is because of the challenge they will face from the improved Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks have a massive upgrade at QB, whether Russell Wilson or Matt Flynn plays. That upgrade from a bad QB to competent QB will give a huge boost to the offense that is already adept at running the football. I am still not impressed with their receivers as a unit, however. On the defensive side of the ball Carroll has assembled an impressive list of young players that make the Seahawks tough to run against. Expect the draft picks in the secondary to continue to improve also – especially future pro-bowler Earl Thomas. Seattle will be a tough team and Russell Wilson will be good. Expect the Seahawks to be right on the 49ers heels all season long.
For now I will take the ‘niners to win the division, but fully anticipate Seattle to be right there with them.
