Most analysts, including myself, guessed that following the signings of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter that after a slower than normal first 4 days of free agency, player movement in the NHL would pick up, with the remaining big free agents signing, and with a number of trades occuring. This has not happened. It has now been a week since the signings with little in the way of off-season transactions. While I don’t claim to be an insider, and I think I can speculate on what is slowing down some of the various moves. Feel free to agree or disagree, but here are my musings on what may be slowing things down for many of the rumorred NHL offseason transactions.
Shane Doan: All reports indicate that Doan and his family are very happy living in Phoenix. He has been part of the team since their inaugural season in the desert in 1996-97. He is settled in the area and is happy with his large ranch style home. I believe that Doan would love to re-sign with Phoenix and continue his career. However the future of the Coyotes is far from settled, due to the murky ownership situation and continued threats of litigation from the Goldwater Institute. I believe that Doan is delaying as long as possible to see if a resolution to the Coyotes’ situation can be reached, as he would love to stay in Arizona long-term, should that be possible.
Alex Semin: Max Vasilyev wrote an excellent piece on Semin on Tuesday. He is a player who certainly has offensive ability, however other aspects of his game are questionned. One issue if the fact that in 3 of the last 4 years Washington was eliminated from the playoffs in a hardfought 7 game series (Pittsburgh 2009, Montreal 2010, New York Rangers 2012). In those 21 games, Semin has scored 2 goals. This certainly calls into question his ability to score goals when it matters most. Semin was paid $6.7 million last season. It is becoming obvious that teams are not willing to give him a comparable salary going forward. However something has to give here; either Semin will accept less money to remain in the NHL, a team will get desperate for offence and up their offer to Semin, or he will leave for big money in the KHL. I predict Semin will eventually sign another 1 year deal in the ~$5 million range to prove his value and try to earn a big long-term contract next summer.
Rick Nash: Scott Howson has been trying to deal Nash since the trade deadline, but has been unable to do so. Today, Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch reported that Nash’s list of teams he will accept a trade to includes the following six teams: The Boston Bruins, Detroit Red Wings, New York Rangers, Philadelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins and San Jose Sharks. Some of these teams have reportedly made significant offers, both at the deadline and this summer, however Nash remains a Blue Jacket. With Howson’s demands reportedly including such talent as Logan Couture from the Sharks, Del Zotto and Kreider from the Rangers, Schenn and Couturier from the Flyers, and previously Jeff Skinner from the Hurricanes (despite them not being on the list), I begin to wonder if Howson really wants to trade Nash. Some of these demands, such as Couture, a younger cheaper player who actually outscored Nash in 2011-12 are preposterous and would not be agreed to straight up by any sane GM. Yet Howson is reported to have asked for Couture plus prospects and picks. Is Howson going to try and convince Nash that no trade could be worked out and he has to play 2012-13 in Columbus, or will this blow up at training camp, and Howson will be forced to deal Nash for less than full value, like the Senators did with Dany Heatley a short time ago.
Roberto Luongo: With Luongo’s contract I think that many teams believe the Canucks will trade Luongo for pennies on the dollar merely to free up cap space. However Mike Gillis has assembled a near full roster, and one with no gaping holes or obvious needs at that. Sure the Canucks could use an upgrade on their third line, but who couldn’t? Gillis really is in the driver’s seat here. There is no rush to deal Luongo, and he can wait for one of the Leafs, Blackhawks, Blue Jackets, or other NHL team to get desperate for a goalie and be willing to meet his asking price. Until someone is willing to pony up real value for Luongo, I don’t see the pressure on Vancouver to trade him.
CBA Talks: As of today there are 13 NHL teams below the projected $54.2 million salary cap floor. Some of these teams will obviously reach the floor through signing their own RFAs. However there are several teams that would need a new acquisition just to reach the floor. However, with the CBA expiring on September 15, 2012; no one is quite sure what the floor would be under a new CBA. A reduction in the cap and floor numbers is certainly possible, and many teams may be waiting for this to resolve itself and to assess the new economic landscape of the league before committing to sign new players, or making a trade.
Please feel free to leave your comments below on these situations, or other heavily rumored transactions, and follow me on twitter @LastWordBKerr.
