Brown’s Week 11 NFL Picks
ATLANTA -6.5 over Tennessee – Seems like a lot of points for two 5-4 teams. But it also seems like the perfect storm for Tennessee to lose. They are coming off a big win but over a terrible opponent. Atlanta is coming off a close divisional loss and should be itching to get back in the win column. Factor in tha the Titans have to play in Atlanta’s loud dome and they should have problems pass protecting and definitely won’t be able to run the ball like they did the last week. When you factor in how poorly Tennessee has done against decent teams all year-long I have to go with Atlanta.
Buffalo +3 over MIAMI - I understand Miami is playing a lot better now, and I think it is legitimate. But they still were only able to grab wins over KC and Washington. The Redskins are in shambles and KC is the second worst team in the league right now. Even if Miami does manage to outplay the Bills they are not a high scoring team so the Bills could still cover, or steal the game late.
BALTIMORE -7 over Cincy - Baltimore always struggles to move the ball on Cincy, and I expect that to continue. But losing AJ Green is too big a loss for Cincy. Now they are on the road against the best D in the league without their best player and a rookie QB.
Jacksonville +1 over CLEVELAND - Everyone is siding with Jacksonville here. They are seeing MJD and a strong defense, what they aren’t seeing is how they pass for 120 yards or less every game. Everyone being on J-ville makes me want to go the other way. But I am not picking Cleveland again the rest of the year unless I am forced.
MINNESOTA -1 over Oakland – Carson Palmer played well last week, better than I ever expected he could. And he still turned the ball over twice. Now he is on the road against a good pass rush in a dome. When Palmer was forced to move out of the pocket last week he looked old man slow, he is in his late Drew Bledsoe stage of his career at this point. Jared Allen could win this game by himself. Add in Peterson versus a poor run D and I am surprised at this line.
DETROIT -7 over Carolina – Tough line here. I think Detroit needs a bounce back game and Carolina\s offense has not been clicking lately like early in the season. You could even say they haven’t played a really good game since week 5. Both teams have decent offenses but only one team has a really good D.
Tampa Bay +14 over GREEN BAY – Who knows, but 14 points doesn’t get covered very often.
Dallas -7 over WASHINGTON – Seems like a gift. I would do anything to avoid Washington at this point and only having to cover a TD is fine by me. Dallas is a power house, but like Baltimore you never know which Dallas will show up.
SAN FRAN – 10 over Arizona – Arizona has managed to keep most games close and San Fran only really has one blow out on their resume. But I am tired of going against San Fran and losing, so if I lose this week so be it. Arizona also historically struggles with San Fran’s powerful front 7 so I am ok with laying the big points.
Seattle +3 over St. LOUIS – The full 3 points here is a gift. You can never trust Seattle on the road but they are easily the better team. I like the way their O-line has come together, if the injuries to the right side of the line don’t set them back this could be an easy victory for Seattle.
San Diego +4 over Chicago – Maybe I am just out smarting myself here but I don’t love the Bears and they have beat some bad teams lately which is propping up their standing in everyone’s minds. The Chicago offense still really struggles to protect and to take a team like that to cover points is risky. San Diego also comes off a loss 10 days ago. They have extra rest and they know they need a win to stay in the division title hunt. I hate this game and I am only making a pick because I have to.
NEW YORK GIANTS -5.5 over Philly – With Vince Young starting I thought I would be all over the Giants here but I am not feeling great about it. I still can’t see grabbing the Eagles at less than 7 points though.
NEW ENGLAND -15 over Kansas City – KC is missing their starting QB. This team has now lost 3 of their top 4 players on offense this season. They have four wins this season somehow but if you look back on it they seem to have gotten pretty lucky in some of those. They have also lost their best defensive player. Too many injuries. Add it all up and to me you are looking at the second worst team in the league. This is also the first time the Patriots will play the Chiefs since week one 2008. Everyone should remember the significance of that game. And everyone should know there is no way the Pats aren’t going to punish the Chiefs for that one.
This Week: 0 – 1
Last Week: 6 – 9
Season: 36 – 35 – 4