Yesterday we spent some time reviewing the Patriots and Vikings. Today let’s take a closer look at Atlanta and Tampa Bay.
Atlanta – Much was made about Atlanta’s poor start early on, but after week seven Atlanta sits with a 4-3 record coming off back to back victories. I am not a huge Atlanta supporter, but they were probably never as bad as was perceived. Atlanta is a team that has a style they have to play to be successful. They aren’t devoid of talent but they aren’t over-flowing with it either. They play a steady game avoiding turnovers and penalties and it usually works out for them. Let’s start with last season; Atlanta went 13-3 but they were never that good. They were a 10-6 type team that squeezed out one or two more victories than they should have in close games and also got to play the NFC West (4-0). So coming into this season the perception should have been one of them being an average, to above average team, not a world-beater like I think most thought.
Let’s look at their style. Atlanta likes to run the ball. This helps them because they are one of the few teams that like to pound the rock so they can be tough to prepare for. They also like to throw over the middle to the TE short, or outside-the-numbers short routes – often coming back to the QB – to the Wide Receivers. And Matt Ryan is under center a lot. Their lack of spread formations limits their big play ability and their ability to put up huge points. I don’t think it is a coincidence that Atlanta has pulled out two wins in the two games Julio Jones has missed. I think Jones can be a terrific player, but he was brought to Atlanta because of their perceived lack of explosiveness. He was then forced into the lineup and Atlanta began running plays that featured Julio Jones, instead of plays that fit their offense. While Jones’ numbers looked fine Atlanta overall was not clicking. With Jones out Atlanta gave up their forced attempts to be explosive and got back to running their offense.
Jones is a terrific athlete but I am not sure he is a very polished receiver. His route running and ability to catch the ball in-stride coming out of breaks does not appear to be at a top-notch NFL level. Even though he was not quite as fantastic I am not sure the discarded Michael Jenkins was not a better fit for this offense.
Regardless of his abilities Atlanta’s offense works best in tight games or games where they have the lead. Then they can dictate the pace of the game and call all the plays they are most comfortable with.
Their defense is an average unit. There may be time for them to improve as the season goes along but I do not see them as dominant. The one player who appears like he can take over games is DT Jonathan Babineaux. He suffered a knee injury early in the season and has not been a force on the line since. They are best when playing in their base defense and have not generated enough pressure this season to perform well when they are spread out.
How does this help us analyze Atlanta? We can see that the Chicago game was one that got away from them. They fell behind early and got out of their offensive rhythm which led to turnovers. They also lost to Green Bay – a team that was able to spread them out and attack their depth in the secondary. Look for Atlanta to be in every game for the rest of the season. And don’t be shocked if their season doesn’t end on January 1st.
Tampa Bay – There are two stories to tell about Tampa Bay; First, is of their offense and their forced attempt to utilize one of their key members, just like Atlanta, and the other is a match-up issue. First things first:
Tampa is better without Lagarette Blount. His downhill running style could be an asset to their offense but the way they use him hurts the team. When he is available they act like they are a run first, grind-it-out team. In reality they are Josh Freeman’s team. When they win or lose it is because of him and the ball should be in his hands. Give Josh the ball and spread it out. Put Lagarette into the fold and feel free to use him late in the game when you have a lead. He is a complementary player, not a feature player.
The other issue I recognized while watching them play division games. Clearly the coaching staff is very familiar with their own division and is able to game-plan very well to stop the tough offenses they have to face. They were able to play two very close games against Atlanta and New Orleans while they haven’t really been close in any of their non-division games against decent competition (Detroit – San Fran – Chicago).
Remember this when considering Tampa and their defense, but this also applies for the rest of the league’s defences. Part of the reason scoring has been so high is that defenses need to scheme and execute almost perfectly to stop NFL offenses. This was made more difficult given the shortened off-season. But with division opponents, where few changes have been made, the scouting has already been done. Consequently, the scores are lower and the results are tighter. You could say this is the same as every year, but I think it will be more pronounced this year. Especially early on.
Check back tomorrow for “Inside the NFL – Day Three”.
And that is the last word…